Oh right , so Canada has a british/irish/ european globalist leader…but he dosent want to trade Canada’s sovereignty?
Worlds gone mad.
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He’s not a very good politician. He’s very bad at lying. So his handlers are keeping him away from the media.
So why did Trudeau have to leave ?
Not well versed on canadian politics ( yes i know it shows) but Trudeau seems to be a better option than what is currently offered surely ?
So many reasons. He was deeply unpopular. He would have led the Liberals to a catastrophic defeat.
Carney, for all his issues, gives the Liberals a fighting chance. But he’s not the person I would have chosen.
Sorry @odin_telamon I wasn’t directing that at your posts.
Although I’d say looking back the ancient BoE governor was quite credible. I don’t remember him going into the sovereignty debate just the financial/commercial side and was correct
I really don’t see where your aligning the UK/EU BREXIT debate with the Canada/US one. It’s not Canada wanting to exit the US at all in fact Canada is already extremely aligned with the US as is the UK.
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Anyone linked to the liberal party has no chance in the next election so it doesn’t matter who leads them.
I would not believe any polls right now as they don’t make sense from a logical, long term pov (Liberals getting a quick bump in polling numbers, it will not last)
I don’t think Carney can do anything significant (legislatively) while leader for the next few months. The most significant thing will be calling an election. It has been political suicide for the NDP propping up the liberals, so continuing to do so (in order to pass Liberal/NDP legislature) will only harm them more. The NDP is in a strong position to be the official opposition, so have been trying to separate themselves from the Liberal party in the past few months.
I personally have a very negative outlook for the future of Canada, I think we are at a tipping point of death from a thousand paper cuts. The next government (I cant see how it will be anyone other than the Conservative party) will be fixing this mess (if fixable) for 4+ years before you see a change in all that ails the country. The pain over the next 4 years will alienate the party in power and will most likely put someone else in power, and so the cycle will continue.
As mentioned, I predict the next government will be Conservatives (very close to, or just getting a majority government), the NPD, the Liberals, and then the Bloc Quebecois being a useless 4th as they are only relevant in Quebec. If the country has any chance, it will have to be a majority government as any potential solutions would be too extreme to span over different political ideologies. (Conservative leaning vs liberal leaning)
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I think you are misreading a couple of major factors
i) the Conservatives are locked into fighting the last election. They want the ballot question to be carbon tax/climate change, and this is not an election when any of the parties have much of a chance of framing the ballot question to be what they want it to be about. Poilievre is a disaster by this measure. If they had a year, they might have a chance to make a change, but that isn’t realistic.
ii) the NDP are in huge trouble. Again, the ballot box question is known, and not even most NDP members think they have the right leader to navigate the current challenges with the US. Financially, they aren’t in particularly good shape either - which is quietly one of their reasons for propping up Trudeau over the past two years. They have not used that time well.
iii) the Bloc is going to lose seats, and almost certainly to the Liberals. The Quebec electorate is an order of magnitude more freaked about the ‘51st state’ bullshit than most of the rest of Canada, not least because of the official language executive order. Anecdotally, Quebecois in Florida are being made to feel unwelcome if they speak French. Right now, the soft nationalists are the biggest believers in Canadian Federalism. Cons might take votes from the Bloc in the south shore seats, but I expect the Liberals will take far more in the Montreal area.
iv) I don’t think we are talking months. My gut says Carney goes to Rideau Hall when he gets back from Europe next week. What the Conservatives are doing right now with the ‘carbon tax Carney’ ads is desperately trying to fight the last election, and it is not working. But they have $41M to spend, and they won’t keep making the same mistake indefinitely. The Liberals cannot afford to give the Conservatives the time to define Carney, when they already have the resources. When the writ drops, campaign spending limits kick in, and it is a level playing field (the Liberals aren’t flush, but have cash on hand to fund a national campaign to the limit - the Cons have enough for the next 2…). On a level playing field, Poilievre faces a massive problem…himself. He doesn’t seem to be able to avoid reminding people of Trump, and he is struggling for relevance.
iv) I also don’t think Carney wants a summer of BBQ circuits leading up to a Fall election, where he is both fending off demands for an election and going through the motions of being a politician. He isn’t one, we have very little idea of how well he will do in that. Poilievre is, for better or worse. Carney can’t avoid some politicking in an election (who knows how he will debate?), but right now an election is going to be decided by ‘big questions’ not political tactics and execution, and that is probably where Carney wants to fight. There is a good chance if he drags it out, he will face other struggles (there are always problems in government). So my guess is the writ drops a day or two after he returns from Europe (3/21?). Election date is 37-51 days, that would put it past Easter, perhaps as soon as April 28.
v) Poilievre also has the most difficult campaign, because of the simple fact that his base includes the 10-15% of voters willing to contemplate being absorbed by the US, and he probably cannot afford to lose them. At the same time, that resurrects the ‘yahoo factor’ that Harper was good at tamping down with message discipline. Poilievre has to keep them quiet and on board at the same time. In some ways, a strawman Maxime Bernier could help him enormously by showing obvious differentiation, but Poilievre seems to cannibalized the Peoples Party perhaps too successfully for his own good.
Against that, the Cons have the massive advantage of being far better prepared for the election than any other party. They will have candidates in place in every riding from the beginning, even the Liberals may not (the NDP won’t).
I don’t disagree with you about the next cycle being a rough ride - one reason why I have no confidence in this incarnation of the Conservatives. They are just generally lightweights, neither that nor ‘sunny ways’ is going to fly. Some brutal policy decisions may be looming - the entire premise of the Canadian automotive industry is participation in a broader North American industry. If that is no longer a possibility, we cannot subsidize our way out of that. It may be time to let it go, but that is political heresy in Ontario.
I don’t have a prediction yet, but my sense is that the Conservatives have hit their high water mark in 2024, and right now are sputtering badly. I don’t see a pathway for them to getting to a majority. I just have a hard time envisioning the Liberals swinging the polls by another 10-15 points on voting day even if they have managed a 20 point swing since the beginning of the year. So a minority government of either wouldn’t shock me, depending on how effectively the Bloc and NDP hang on to their voters. At the same time, short though I expect the campaign to be, I think the electorate is extraordinarily volatile and a massive swing could happen - more like in the Liberals’ favour, but a bad mistake could shake confidence in Carney, because most Canadian voters barely know who he is.
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Prediction markets currently have the Conservatives at about 65%. I think they’re going to win a majority but not as big as it otherwise would have been. Now that Carney is leader, they’ve got to start hammering him. I’m seeing it on my Twitter feed but I don’t have Canadian TV down here.
I’m guessing the writ is dropped this month but Carney has been pretty poor thus far. They may road test him for a few months and maybe chalk up a few wins before the Conservative buzz saw hits him. So it might be in the summer or fall.
The NDP are an absolute disaster.
I just don’t see Carney waiting that long. The longer he gives the Conservatives to try to define him, the more his likely weaknesses will be exposed. A ‘road test’ seems a high risk, low reward proposition when his message to the electorate right now is ‘I need a strong mandate to face Trump’. That is a message that plays right to the default ballot question, highlights the misgivings many voters have about Poilievre, and squeezes the NDP.
The only caveat in there is that there may be a desire to see how the Halifax byelection goes (4/14) and then call a general election unless it goes poorly (which would suck for the Halifax campaigns). Personally, I think that would be a mistake, but maybe an election around Victoria Day - better campaigning weather anyway.
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You’re going to see a whole lot of this.
I know this business, and it’s not entirely fair, but this is the cudgel that the Conservatives will use to hammer Mark Carney.
All of which is good reason to cut off at least the formal Conservative ad campaigns, and throw Elections Canada into the mix on 3rd party advertising. But is not as if Poilievre doesn’t have some damned awkward stuff, even quite recently. People are in no mood right now to hear his ‘Canada is broken’ stuff.
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It’s stuff like the following why I say Carney has enormous baggage. Can the Conservatives take advantage?
Being attacked by Canada Proud may actually be to his advantage.
Complete weirdness now, Carney just eliminated the carbon tax for consumers, Poilievre insisting that it is the law of the land (technically correct until it is repealed). Poilievre has been desperately trying to connect Carney to Trudeau, and is now reduced to suggesting that Carney will just reinstate after the election because Carney’s views cannot possibly be so different from Trudeau’s Ministers.
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