Dyche, Allardyce and Hodgson all have their own reasons for beating Liverpool. They are all awkward buggers in their own way, and would love nothing more than putting a marker down to stop us qualifying for the CL.
We have had difficulty all season long against lesser sides, dropping far too many points along the way.
The issue will be whether or not we apply ourselves and show the sort of endeavor we did tonight against Man Utd. If we do we will have too much for them. It will mean winning five on the spin to finish the season. On the evidence of this campaign we haven’t been able to do that, but all of a sudden, after a good win at Old Trafford, I see a new resolve in the group.
Just realised that even if we win all our remaining games we could still finish level on points with Leicester (if Chelsea win their remaining games and Leicester beat Spurs in their final fixture).
It would then come down to goal difference, which is close. Leicester +21, Liverpool +20.
If GD is level it would come down to goals scored and here Leicester have a 4 goal advantage (65 to 61).
We not only need to win our remaining games but we also need to score at least 5 more goals in our remaining 3 fixtures than Leicester do in their final 2 to absolutely guarantee CL football.
A draw (or Chelsea loss) in the Chelsea v Leicester game would, in theory, work better. As GD and GF would be irrelevant for us then providing we got the 9 points.
Yes, but let’s say they lose by only one goal. That puts them level on GD with us (now, although we will have played West Brom between now and then).
We win our remaining games by a single goal. Leicester lose to Chelsea by a single goal but beat Spurs by 3. GD ends up level and Leicester, most likely, finish above us on Goals Scored unless we’ve scored at least 8 (>4 more than Leicester in their last two) in our remaining 3 fixtures.
I think we need to win the remaining 3 to make it. I’m fairly confident Chelsea will win at home in front of their fans.
I’m calling a home win and then a draw vs Villa (which would be irrelevant to us). LC loss vs Chelsea then a home win against Spurs. That will leave LC on 69 and Chelsea on 68.
So in my opinion we either miss out if we drop any points, or take 3rd.
It would take Leicester losing to Chelsea and then beating Spurs by a difference of three goals, which seems less probable. Of course it can happen, but I think we would be focusing on just winning the rest of the games than on improving the goals scored aspect. Well, I hope so at least; the memories of 13-14 season comes to mind thinking about GD towards the end of season.
Am still not sure who has more chance between Spurs nicking points of Leicester and Villa getting something out of Chelsea in their final games. That clarity would also help in determining what would be a good result for us in Leicester v Chelsea game.
[quote=“Colossal_centre_back, post:361, topic:1809, full:true”] Am still not sure who has more chance between Spurs nicking points of Leicester and Villa getting something out of Chelsea in their final games. That clarity would also help in determining what would be a good result for us in Leicester v Chelsea game.
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I‘m saying anything can happen.
They are having a cup final tomorrow - hopefully this goes into extra time.
Then in midweek they are playing against each other again where both teams have to play for a win.
Fatigue, injuries, pressure, (Chelsea having the CL final in their head) - I’m saying anything is possible for Villa and Spurs by then.
Think you’re overthinking this. We win our next two games we go into the final game with a minimum of +22 goal difference. If Leicester have lost to Chelsea they go into the final game with a goal difference of +20 maximum. They would have to outscore how we do against Palace in their game with Spurs by a minimum of 3 goals to get back level on goal difference. I really don’t see us and Leicester finishing on 69 points with them having a better goal difference.
I’m not overthinking it. I’m just correcting my previous misunderstanding that simply by winning our next three games would guarantee us CL football next season. As it currently stands it isn’t guaranteed.
They’d have to score at least 3 more goals against Spurs than we score against Palace. Maybe as many as 5 or 6 depending on how other games have gone. Mathematically it’s possible but practically? In the real world? It’d be a shock.
This season has taught me not to get ahead of myself. Results and perfomances have been much improved. I am cautiously optimistic but also fully braced for another punch in the balls.
