The Russian Invasion of Ukraine (Part 2)

Russia has abandoned Kharkiv Oblast. Many empthy settlements waiting for Ukrainian soldiers :smiley:

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Zoka is snarky

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Thread:

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I know maybe the common Russians cannot do anything, but surely there should be anger on the ground that Russians are suffering from all the sanctions and yet the Russian offensive in Ukraine is nowhere near conclusion in Russian favour which they thought would be easy…

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“Kadyrov: In recent days, we have received information, but there is no concrete explanation. Well today, the Ministry of Defense clarified the information, which is why they left the cities of Izyum, Kupyansk, Balakleya. This was forced to save human lives. But that doesn’t mean anything. I, Ramzan Kadyrov, officially declare to you that all these cities will be returned back. Our people are already there, the guys are specially equipped for this work, they are ready to leave for another 10 thousand fighters, and in the near future we will reach Odessa. And you will see concrete results.
I am not a strategist like the Department of Defense, but mistakes were made, I think they will draw conclusions. When you tell the truth, even to your face, I always love to tell the truth. My people and I have talked to all the commanders on the fronts, we have information from the field. And if changes are not made today or tomorrow in the strategy of conducting a special military operation, I will have to contact the leadership of the Ministry of Defense, the leadership of the country in order to explain to them the situation that is really happening there on earth. The situation is very interesting, even I would say an awesome situation. The fact that they left there, gave away several cities and villages, this also has its plus.”

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There is speculation that that panicked withdrawal without equipment was allowed to happen - the UKR calculation being that they are already getting more PoWs than they can readily deal with, and those Russian formations will be a military and political liability back in Russia.

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Jomini has a new thread :slight_smile:

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Hence the jokes about Putin avoiding open windows going around. Maybe I’m too optimistic, but stranger things have happened.

They’ve given ground without a fight in many places. They’ve also left a fuck ton of equipment, ammo and supplies. They’re just a rabble at this point and for all intents and purposes, combat ineffective for the most part. They might have not that many KIA in the past few days but outfitting and refitting these guys just isn’t going to happen any time soon.

Then there is the effect on Ukrainian supply. They’ve liberated places they probably didn’t think they would, they’ve done it without firing a shot in quite a few of them and they’ve basically got resupplied by the enemy along the way. I don’t know how they’re fixed at the moment but jeez, I’d seriously be tempted to just carry on and funnel as much into this as is possible.

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There is very real resentment now amongst Nationalists and Fascists. It could be that if Putin falls now, someone actually worse came to power. Wargonzo wrote that there needs to arise a new leader, tempered with steel from fire and blood as an example.

Gotta love the rhetoric. Sounds a bit desperate, but I see your point. I’m just opting for a bit of optimism.

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I don’t think it will happen but the forces most resentful of Putin are those calling for General Mobilisation and Total War to crush Ukraine. There is also a feeling in the Russian armed forces that they have been pussy footing around. Now this isn’t true, but Dolchstoßlegende is a thing that can happen in Authoritarian states with strict information control high on Nationalism faced with a defeat. When the official narrative becomes too absurd, and it is, Nationalists look for other narratives.

And liberals are not a power in Russia, but Nationalists are.

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I know. You’re probably right, but then we have seen regimes collapse rather quickly, where it seemed almost unimaginable previously. Maybe this wouldn’t be as sustainable without the cult of Putin as it seems? Just a thought/hope.

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I fear the cult of Putin is mostly the Cult of Rossya. I think he can be replaced by another far right character who would get the same adoration if he was seemingly skilled and imperialistic enough. I think it’s more about an idea of reviving Russia as a Great Imperial Power than a person, but I may be wrong.