Lol
A timely dose of realism (not necessarily grim) for the more impatient amongst us. 
First Challenger tank destroyed in action. Bound to happen, but the eye-popping statistic for the Western tanks that have been knocked out is a combined total of ZERO crew casualties. Stark contrast to the Russian flying turret designs, that has to be good for morale - and experience. No experience is quite as good as not making the same mistake twice.
speaking of which
And hereâs a snapshot of the fighting across the entire length of the front line from NYT.
Freed article here: https://archive.ph/E0JAo
Looks like after weeks of softening up the Russian lines by attacking their supply chain and bases, UA forces are making progress on the ground. Weâll see how far they can go before winter freeze.
Following on from Wednesday morningâs audacious strikes at the Russian naval base in Sevastapol where a landing ship and a sub were claimed to have been destroyed , there are now claims that Ukraine has taken out the entire air defence system for Crimea with further strikes. The landing ship that was destroyed yesterday now brings to three the total of such vessels. This is significant because were the Ukrainians to take out the Kerch bridge completely (traffic across which has reportedly been halted today for some unknown reason) then the only way for Russia to supply itâs troops in the south would be from these landing ships.
Unsurprisingly , there doesnât seem to be much âofficialâ recognition of what was actually achieved on Wednesday , but here the Ukrainian guy gives hs take.
Those landing ships would not be used for supply. They are for beach landings of forces, carrying a load of just 2000 tonnes. If the Kerch bridge is knocked out, the Russians would use a mixture of vessels and conventional ports, and need far more than the entire Ropucha class would be capable of carrying.
I stand corrected. It would appear that the Ukrainians still regard them as high value targets however.
Leaving aside their capital value, crippling that landing capacity has real strategic implications. The ability to land along the Black Sea coast between Crimea and the Dniepr, or even on the other side of the Dniepr, presents a potentially vulnerable flank for any Ukrainian advance. The Black Sea fleet has 6, and there are 5 additional Ropucha class in the theatre that are nominally Baltic and Northern Fleet. Allowing for normal rotation, with the Minsk out of service that accounts for about 10% of their ready landing capacity.
nearing 18months now, and weâre really seeing how Ukraine is working on the supply lines to cripple the Russian forces defensive setup prior to attacking. UA Forces are using whatever advantages they can find, am assuming they have partisan groups operating in Russian-held areas doing reconnaisance and scouting for weak points in the supply chain. advising on troop movements and such.
Unfortunately I think the last statistic I saw, was that the two sides were nearly even in terms of casualties which isnât a good sign for Ukraine.
errrâŚRussia was also using them to ferry supplies to Sevastopol when the Kerch Bridge was knocked out.
Docking at Berdyansk would have been a calculated risk for the Russian Navy. The city, which was recently captured by Russian forces, provides a logistics hub close to the siege at Mariupol. Reinforcements, armored vehicles and supplies can be unloaded. The struck landing ship appeared to have been carrying substantial quantities of ammunitionâŚ
Just about anything can be used - in that Berdyansk instance, probably because port facilities were still not functional, and they would be useful for that niche. They are definitely useful for emergency situations, etc. But 2000 tonnes is just too small to be a serious contributor - even a single CAA formation is estimated to go through about 4000 tonnes per day, and Crimea has the equivalent of two of them. Turned the other way, those landing ships simply would not be enough to supply the Russian forces in the southern sector of the front. They would need to use other ships as well.
From CNN ;
Ukraineâs strategy to regain control of Crimea is focusing on three main âtasksâ that include attacking âoccupation military objects,â Mykhailo Podolyak, adviser to the head of the Ukrainian Presidential Office, said Thursday.
âFirstly: we need to open up the sky over the peninsula in order to be able to actively destroy Russian military and warehouse infrastructure. For this purpose anti-missile systems/air defense systems, including Triumph, are being destroyed,â he said in a post on social media.
Earlier Thursday, a Ukrainian security source said Ukraine had destroyed a Russian air defense complex Triumph near the town of Yevpatoria in the annexed Crimea in an overnight attack.
âSecondly: we need to stop the large-scale continuous supply of resources and reserves into the area of active hostilities,â Podolyak went on to say. âFor this purpose transport logistics, including illegal objects like bridges in Kerch Strait, are being destroyed.â
"Thirdly: we need to chase away remnants of the Russian Black Sea fleet from the Crimean territorial waters and beyond and reinstate the status of the Black Sea as the sea of external jurisdiction," he said. âFor this purpose repairs infrastructure and Russian warships are being destroyed,â he added.
One aspect of logistics those landing ships would be useful for is in the event that Ukraine is able to exert more control over the Black Sea. Most of the merchant-type ships that would be used for carrying supplies into Sebastopol would not have significant ECM, whereas the Ropuchas have a full suite.
Sorry, what is a CAA formation?
Because youâre talking about going through 4 million kilograms of supplies per day. the entire RU occupation is estimated to be 100,000 strong, so that would mean 40kg/day of supplies per person for the entire occupying force. so whatâs a CAA formation?
taking fuel and armaments into consideration, thatâs not totally impossible given the amount of artillery shells theyâre going through. But Iâm curious to know what numbers youâre looking at. Given Iâm in logistics, itâs got my curiosity piqued.
edit
I donât know where I read 100,000 but thatâs apparently way off. apparently its closer to 400,000 which makes much more sense.
Combined Arms Army - which donât really exist in Russian parlance, except as ad hoc formations. Somewhere between 12-25k troops, with the 4000 tonnes/day being the larger size. It is not that linear though, because the size differentiation is often in the number of infantry rather than the vehicles which devour supplies.
Here is a Rand discussion of it that you might find interesting https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA2000/RRA2033-1/RAND_RRA2033-1.pdf
One of things you might find interesting given your background is the ratio of MTOs to line units described in that paper. It gets you fairly quickly to understanding what happened to that drive on Kyiv from the northwest
So the Ropuchas might be situationally useful/emergency cover for the logistical picture, but the Russian problem would be much larger than that if their communications were compromised.