They probably have a few and I think we will see more spectacular Ukrainian strikes like the one against the Black Sea Fleet HQ. But I dont think the UA will capture Tokmak or make any sort of considerable territorial progress before spring. That doesnt mean that Russia isnt struggling, but they are dug in and defending very well. So slow attritional positional warfare will continue I think. In 2023 anyway.
Or so I fear and belive.
Of course, Russia will go on the offensive in 2024 as well. Very hard to forecast even the imediate future, but I would be wary of trusting the many sources that parrot the message that RU is about to collapse militarily. I dont think they will unless there is a significant breakthrough that puts russian defenders into disarray. So far their elastic defense, aiming to stall and tactically retreat a few hundred meters here and there and then counter attacking seems to work, despite being costly for them. Their entire strategy is about forcing UA to culminate their offensive early without being able to use large focused armoured strikes with reserves, seems to be working. Unfortunately, time is valuable and an important factor.
Sanctions may not have had the desired effect, however It is slowly eating away at the Russian economy.
They might fight a war of attrition, but they donāt care about blood. I am of the increasing belief no one will win the war on the ground. It will drag on years till the economic toll (both of war and sanctions) leads to a withdrawal or collapse.
I would put money on Putin dying before the war ends. (Illness, old age or window)
@ISMF taking this batch of propanganda into consideration, I donāt think Iād be surprised at all to learn much of the Russian nationalist movement which is driving this war is similar in mentality to the US MAGA movement which Trump has been pushing since he became a puppet of Putin.
that nationalist mentalility is hard to shake once it takes hold and is being constantly fed by the media. I donāt know if it will ever go away. 91 indictments in federal court and some people still think heās the savior of all thatās good in America.
the same in Russia, Putin is pushing his agenda and ruling like days of old. China will keep feeding them everything they need to wage war against the west.
The Kremlin is robbing this nation of the building blocks of its economy ā its natural resources.
After nearly six months of fighting, Moscowās sloppy war has yielded at least one big reward: expanded control over some of the most mineral-rich lands in Europe. Ukraine harbors some of the worldās largest reserves of titanium and iron ore, fields of untapped lithium and massive deposits of coal. Collectively, they are worth tens of trillions of dollars.
I think that is their aim now. Just dig in, contain any new Ukrainian offensive, and wait until everyone on the opposing side gets tired of it. Then, negociate a deal with a big part of the conquered territories to be recognised as Russian. Thatās the conservative scenario.
But they will also want to see how some elections go, especially in the USA, and then, if it goes according to their wishes, there wonāt be much support for Ukraine anymore. Because letās face it, the US are keeping Ukraine afloat so far, and without their continued support, the latter have no chance. Then, the Russians will be able to go on the offensive again.
Imo, the result of the upcoming US elections will decide of the Ukrainian fate.
But at that point theyād already engaged in the Crimean invasion over a year and the eastern regions of Ukraine. this has been going on for 10y already.
A reminder about how blurred the lines actually are. Here we have a major US multinational company, candidly selling burgers in Russia as if nothing happened.
Its very debatable. Ukraine broke out from Syria, when Putin assisted Assad, MI6 and CIA moved to overthrow Russian influence on Kyiv, at which was the Euromaidan revolution. Russia then invaded Crimea to protect its naval port. Its probably true that Ukr death squads were assassinating ethnic Russians in Donbas, but if so, likely also vice versa. It has been a steadily deteriorating situation from as far back as 2013.
Therefore it likely has multiple axes of implication. As you say pride, but also madness, control and hatred of the West - the elevation of Mother Russia. It was nevertheless Putin who invaded. I feel his true primary objective was and still is the collapse of the western economic system. He banked on sanctions and that they would bite back on the West and knew he would, along with other BRICS and friends, be able to control energy prices. The real war is still in full fight and its for which economic zone crashes first.
Add this with military numbers of illegal immigrations simultaneously coming into USA, EU and UK, and the huge economic burdens these bring, and this idea gathers even greater force.
Itās strange that none of the leaked diplomatic cables have come even close to proving such a thing, despite the obvious interest in it being proven by the people who wanted it leaked.
which of the āthingsā do you have issue with, exactly?
Russia supporting Assad
MI6/CIA influence in Euromaiden
Russia invading Crimea to secure Sevastopol as a Russian Naval Base
UA death squads assasinating Russians in Donbas
