The Russian Invasion of Ukraine (Part 2)

Away End - General Chat
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Cheers

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this should be an interesting mixed bag of updates here. I saw Sean Penn has been filming in Ukraine since February. Now, Branson is peeking about? What’s the deal, cheap land for sale?

here we go…

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Sheikh Mansour? Chechyen? Can anyone clarify WTF this is about?https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1542205281379270657?s=20&t=zO_n4U7LM07G_AyeTBcQcA

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Chechen volunteer battalion formed in 2014 that fights against Russia. Named after a Chechen leader in the 18th century that fought against Russia. Nothing to do with City’s Mansour.

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Interesting thread:

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Frontline Action

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Russia is really pushing to enter Donetsk Oblast from the east. I’m predicting by end of July you’ll stop seeing advancements by the Russians and theyll bunker down to maintain control of the region. They want to keep those oil-rich lands.

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Note that Canadians don’t trust the illegitimate son of Fidel Castro…

am away for a few days. hoping that @Livvy and @Magnus are doing well

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and that’s what we continue to do. nothing “free” about Freedom. :ox: :poop:

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I’ve come to realize that this war is yet again one about controlling oil and gas ressources, and nothing else.

(Cheers for posting the link to the Harvard article of 2020, it’a an interesting reading and an eye-opener.)

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I think that is a stretch. That may be one of Russia’s war aims, but certainly not the only one. For Ukraine’s part, it is a war for national survival.

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That’s how I currently see it (happy to be educated further on the matter): it’s a conflict between NATO countries and Russia for the control of immense oil and gas resources. Russia has initiated a policy of conquest towards Ukraine after realising that the control of these resources was well on course to escape them, and that if nothing was done, the dependence of EU countries on Russian gas would be reduced over time. They thus decided to bring the most lucrative territories under their control: Crimea (2014), the Dnipro/Donetsk basin, and the rest of the Black sea region (currently).

In my opinion, mainly fake motives are invoked to justify their aggression: historical links, security, there are fascists in Ukraine destabilizing the region blah blah. In fact, they want to keep control and exploit these resources, alongside important mineral and grain resources. It’s the main driver for this war on the Russian side, and also for the increased interest the EU / NATO have had for Ukraine in the last years.

The latter are ready to support Ukraine at all costs in this war, by pledging billions towards them in weapons and logistical support, and even by putting their own economy at risk in the process. Why? Not because of humanitarian concerns, but because there are large oil and gas fields to be exploited.

The Ukrainians will curse their luck that their soil contains so much oil and gas, as it has now brought a full-scale war upon them. They find themselves caught between a rock and a hard place.

You’ll say that this is a caricatural view. Of course, reality is always complex. But we have seen in recent history that nothing stops countries going at war when huge oil and gas resources are at stake.

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If this was all about energy for Putin, hasn’t this backfired spectacularly?

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I admit I never was much into politics. Yes military equipment (“fan” or very interested from a young age yes) but politics not so much. But this war changed me. I’m deeply invested into this conflict. I’m now reading and learning a whole buckload of others historic conflicts as well. Just to broaden my horizon. But still a noob. But working hard on this. :). So take my opinion with some salt…

My feelings of this conflict are, random order mind:

  • Putin want USSR back. He might missed a boat with Baltic states so he now urgently tries to make all ****stans, Ukraine, Georgia (done), Moldova as his proxy states. Something in the mould of Belarus.
  • He’s pissed at West because West is also trying to makes these countries as their allies.
  • While Putin’s at it… it a lovely bonus to get all Ukraines natural resources.
  • He hates Ukraine with passion, UA was always seen as nation of peasants and neanderthals for an average Russian. And now their life standard is better and richer than Russians (just look at looting from Russians soldiers. And their amazements of UA life style). I don’t believe this did cloud Putin’s decisions but wouldn’t be surprised tbh.
  • Putin have to show the world that the Russia is still megapower and that everyone should be afraid of them. No one shall push them around anymore, no one shall make fun of 'em, everyone shall respect their demands and opinions. Slavic ego stuff - we’re tough bad ass MF’s.
  • Putin knew West will help UA at all costs. The West will spend billions and billions and eventually forced to stop buying Russian gas. He’ll sell gas to his allies - China, Turkey, Hungary & India. Due to these actions West economy will suffer. Bad. Good news for Russia, China.
  • One of his personal Casus belli is also - US attacked Iraq, Lybia, Afgan., why the fuck can’t we? Who can stop us?
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https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1542916025523503104?s=20&t=6cE2SQHM8qjz9a7b7ZBjTg

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Frontline Action

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