The Russian Invasion of Ukraine (Part 2)

not sure about this part, many Ukrainians go to work and live in Russia and Poland, as the pay is higher and the standard living. Ukriane is a ver poor counrty.

Well looking and judging from at all those footages and friends working there… Yes very poor on those distant villages. Agreed. But life in the major cities is okay. Better than Russian cities.

Just my observation…

I post this earlier, it’s a long video (40 minutes) but it shows why oil and gas is the central motive

Again, hasn’t this backfired spectacularly on Putin, with the EU as it’s biggest customer now spending hundreds of billions to try to replace or at the very least massively reduce Russian energy imports? While the infrastructure to replace their biggest customers with countries like China and India isn’t there? Seems more like a lose-lose situation for both Russia and most of Europe.
I could very well be wrong here, happy to be educated.

afaik… Russia and China are in the process of building a pipeline through Siberia. It should be done in 2-3 years.

Is that Power of Siberia 2? Afaik that doesn’t nearly replace loss in European exports, but again, happy to be corrected, not a field I know that much about.

Yep. You are right. It doesn’t. But I guess it’s just a beginning…

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Frontline Action:

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Fascinating how propaganda changes.
Now that Ukraine have decent artillary things seem to be changing again. More evidence of Ukraine successes even though Russia are still pushing forward. Is it a sign of slow but steady change.
I’m worried about the Ukrainian retreats as I reckon to retreat successfully you need air cover. If you don’t you ā€˜need’ to ā€˜sacrifice’ troops left to defend the retreat. The west really should be doing more to even the sea and air superiority that Russia has. I can not understand why Nato are leaving Russia to commit ā€˜piracy’ on international shipping for example, I’m pretty sure they could sink the black sea fleet.

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Yep, they seem like happy bunnies with HIMARS and new MLRS systems.

I’m still under impression that Russkies are progressing but slowly and costly. I wonder where will they stop. Where is UA last stand? Can they sustain this?

Last man from what I’m hearing.

Lot’s of ifs and buts I think. The land war requires that they can get air support and attacks, which means they need to eliminate Russian air superiority. This will take years.
They have no chance at sea which gives Russia a fall back (Naval bombardment) and essentially means the Crimea peninsula is out of reach for Ukraine (unless something turns the tide).
To be honest it’s hard to see Ukraine retaking much if anything once Russia gets a foot hold. So essentially Russia will slowly steam roll forward.
The west has to step it up as Russia must be at full push to get the manufacture armaments up. They say Russia was preparing this for at least a year yet they seem to highly unprepared.

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This is what puzzles me… A lot of experts saying about Russia’s extended preparations but at the same time same people saying that Putin expected days if not hours long war…


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That is a function of the incredible inequity in Russian society. Russia is richer, but the gap between the standard of living in the big cities and the rest of the country is remarkable. The average rural Russian is much worse off than the average rural Ukrainian. The average urban Russian is better off than the average urban Ukrainian, however Ukraine’s economic growth in the past 8 years has seen that gap closing fast.

What Ukraine doesn’t really have is the class of multibillionaires that Russia does.

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because that class of oligarchy under a repressive regime doesn’t yet exist. maybe with the exception of the owner of the Azov facility and a few others?

They have a couple of billionaires, such as him, but nothing on the scale of what Russia does. Akhmetov is actually sort of that type, somewhat of a dark past, but there just isn’t a whole class of people like him.

was more referring to the manipulation of government policy and control of infrastructure by the mega-rich. Warren Buffet style (Burlington rail) which moves oil all across the US. THOSE kind of guys. The Oligarchs of Russia like Abramovich who are so deeply embedded in the core Russian economy they’ve been sanctioned by the UN…