@wyld.at.hrt The Ukrainians have been hitting Russian supply lines hard from the start. This is central to their operations it’s what anyone who has been following expects. That there seems to be lulls in these operations is down imo to that they don’t want to over expose, they need to find the ‘best’ targets and at times their special forces are required elsewhere. There is perhaps some hesitation when it comes to ops in Russia however we see that they are hitting well behind the lines when a precission attack can be carried out. I think that as it was central to their plans from the start many don’t mention it and perhaps not as much as it could be. I would point out that it’s up to Ukraine what it uses as propaganda and this isn’t a big focus on that line.
One thing that I would have expected more of though is Ukraine taking out more bridges. This is an area where Russia seems to have been more active. I know the bridges are in Ukraine and can understand some reluctance to cut above all populations off however militarily it could be of great help.
On another note I can not understand why the world sits back whilst Russia commits piracy in the black sea. This is where NATO particularly could have intervened and with good reason. In doing so they would have blocked up the Black Sea fleet which would help Ukraine immensely. I see little point in sanctions if Russia can just go around stealing.
You’re right in that Russian lines of communication and logistics were targeted from the beginning and quite effectively as well. What we’re seeing in the past two weeks is more than that, though. It’s a concentrated barrage on ammunition dumps in particular that we weren’t seeing in the first phases as they were out of range in general. With the supply of highly accurate Western artillery units, in particular HIMARS, but also self propelled guns like the Caesar, these facilities/storages are in range and able to targeted specifically and as a result they’re going boom one after the other and here’s the latest:
This is a map of HIMARS strikes since they were received. This sort of concentrated barrage is indicative of the capability of the unit. It’s basically a guided missile platform in the guise of a MRLS.
This may always have been the plan but until the arrival of HIMARS and other artillery units, it was not feasible for such concentrated and prolonged targeting of these dumps. The Russians are in an operational pause but they can’t just pause and say ‘time out guys’ and then everyone stops for a while and goes about their business until they decide to get moving again. They still have to keep strength in depth and readiness while shortening and consolidating their supply lines and continuing with limited offensives to avoid a Ukrainian counter offensive and to be able to get moving again but at the moment, their ammo is getting blown to bits at a rapid rate and their rear supply lines are well within range of artillery with more from the West on the way.
Not sure we will see it happen but if the Ukrainian can get enough artillery to continue targeting the rear while concentrating fire on front line Russian units to punch a hole, I think there is significant potential for a major counteroffensive.
Yes, the changes in the conflict and the supply of decent artillery has changed the situation, the thinking is the same. the change in situation creating new and different opportunities.
On this I would like to know more about Russian air support. It is clear Ukraine are holding their’s back, and wisely.
If Russia are using a good amount of air support and Ukraine are managing to eliminate a good number at some point they might be able to involve more of their own.
For me this is necessary ‘turning point’ for both counter attacks and successful retreats.
I think their retreats must be really complicated where they ‘have’ to sacrifice ‘canon fodder’ to surrender or death to achieve it. It’s also why they hold for as long as possible.
This ‘cannon fodder’ holding on till the end just goes to show how determined they they don’t just hold on for 3 days they hold on for weeks giving the ‘elite’ forces to not just retreat but reform, counter attack and do other stuff they have the potential to do.
Yes they are retreating but at a phenomenal cost to Russia. It’s heroic!
You three guys have been filling up very well for the “awol” @Magnus and @Livvy.
Keep it going but don’t get burnt out.
Still, I hope @Magnus and @Livvy will return soon, the sooner the better.
