The Russian Invasion of Ukraine (Part 3)

Magnus · 8 June 2026 01:21

https://x.com/Exilenova_plus/status/2063740079588479298

peterroberts · 8 June 2026 05:23

Is the Kerch bridge still operational , or would it be too risky for them to run tankers across it ?

RedWhippet · 8 June 2026 07:46

Thanks for all the updates. I keep trying to follow the conflict but find the coverage incomplete at best and at worst, major news outlets are simply passing off propaganda as reportage.

I read quite a few reports that the Oreshnik hypersonic ballistic missiles were a bit of a hit-and-miss affair. As well as hitting civilian targets in Kyiv, some seemingly crashed on to their own territory.

I suppose my question is, what is the Russians actual strategy? Are they targeting military (or military industrial) installations, or are they simply trying to terrorise the civilian population? I can see that some jammed missiles will go astray and their targeting seems haphazard. But randomly targeting civilian over military targets seems rather foolhardy.

Incidentally, I have also seen reports that there is some fuel rationing in Moscow and that Russia has halted jet fuel exports.

peterroberts · 8 June 2026 10:08

According to an analyst I was listening to this morning , he maintains that Putin is still of the belief that a few more months will see the Russian army take the whole of the Donbas. You have to conclude from that that he is either seriously deluded or his commanders are giving him unrealistic reports.

tesh · 8 June 2026 10:11

Or they have some surprise planned.

Magnus · 8 June 2026 11:40

It’s operational. It came under attack a couple of days ago, when the other bridge was hit, but it is heavily defended.

Magnus · 8 June 2026 11:48

https://x.com/usf_army/status/2063915491945529769

Magnus · 8 June 2026 12:07

RedWhippet:

Thanks for all the updates. I keep trying to follow the conflict but find the coverage incomplete at best and at worst, major news outlets are simply passing off propaganda as reportage.

I read quite a few reports that the Oreshnik hypersonic ballistic missiles were a bit of a hit-and-miss affair. As well as hitting civilian targets in Kyiv, some seemingly crashed on to their own territory.

I suppose my question is, what is the Russians actual strategy? Are they targeting military (or military industrial) installations, or are they simply trying to terrorise the civilian population? I can see that some jammed missiles will go astray and their targeting seems haphazard. But randomly targeting civilian over military targets seems rather foolhardy.

Incidentally, I have also seen reports that there is some fuel rationing in Moscow and that Russia has halted jet fuel exports.

It’s very incomplete and it’s why I don’t use normal media (other than tweets linking articles) when I look for information, since it is too shallow and lacks nuance. I understand more when I get larger volumes of data and anacdotes that I can filter.

The Oeshnik missile is nigh unstoppable but in Ukraine, no one cares about it and mocks it. Why ? It is a super expensive big piece of metal that will kill a lot of people if it hits. Sometimes it does. Sometimes it hits nothing. It is inacurate and really designed for nuclear use. To use it convetionally is almost kind of silly, but it makes a big crater.

The Russians are targeting military installations. Particularly training grounds and related infrastructure. But they also target civilian infrastructure with stand off fires specifically. And when they advance, they will hit civilian targets required for life, so that people flee (normal tactic).
Their targeting is haphazard on purpose. But they don’t target random civilians with their expensive missiles. They use drones U(geran and FPV) to terrorise civilians specifically, the ballistic missiles and cruise missiles always attempt to target infrastructure or military, expect if it is for “Show” (i.e. after an Ukrainian attack on Moscow, Russia targeted art installations with cruise missiles as “revenge” a year ago or so).

If you want to understand Russia’s way or waging war, you must understand the “Theory of Will”. I’ll try to explain it.
How do you project your might ? Power = Will * Resources. Russia has much more resources, but Ukraine has more Will.

Rarely do countries waging war operate on their maximum capacity on either variable. It is unheard of. The Soviet Union did in WW2, so did Germany at the end.
This, the inability to translate superior resources (technology and ammunition) to power, is what made the US lose Vietnam and is what making it possible for Iran to defeat the US in the current ME conflict.

So that having been said, Russia’s tactic in war has always an element (it’s like a cultural tradition) where “Will” is specifically targeted as a strategy in itself. Terror can be effective and everyone has a breaking point. Target the Will and your superior Resources may be translated to increased Power. Likewise, inferior resources may be offput by superior will.

Now, obviously there is more to this, but it’s a crude sketch.

Something like that…

Magnus · 8 June 2026 12:22

Note. Ukraine also specifically targets the enemy’s Will in a callous manner, but manage to do so within the laws of armed conflict, where as Russia will attempt to break will by making life appear unlivable for those in the rear by terror and removing infrastructure supporting morale and civilian life.

Ukraine does this and a lot of it. Thousands of videos of Russian soldiers dying or about to die. They purposfully flood the Russian info-sphere on Telegram with this.
Example:
https://x.com/414magyarbirds/status/2063927263725256927

For Ukraine to win, they also have to decrease the variable of Russian Will, not just their resources.

In short, real war is terrible and who ever says it is not, is not speaking of a war where both parties invest much resources and will, but a minor conflict instead (minor conflicts will still feel like a “big” one to those who are directly involved in their little part of the universe, but those wars will not go industrial).