WAPO with some analysis here of a CNN poll which casts some serious doubts on the significance and credibility of the proceedings in Manhattan.
Freed article here ; How Trump’s trial is playing, politically - The Washington Post
Yeah for a ‘star journalist’ she seems fairly illiterate.
He will lose in the election, again.
In the meantime, we are finding out if the rule of law applies to everyone. Trump is an expert at ducking and diving, delaying and evading justice. He has the Supreme Court in his pocket, and is trying to effectively rewrite the constitution to say that whatever he did while in office is immune.
If that all comes out properly and is tried in a court, rather than on Truth Social, he will be in jail for the rest of his life. It is 10x the magnitude of what sunk Nixon.
The constitution was written in a context where the framers wanted to stop an unaccountable, absolute monarchy. And it has come full circle, as essentially the gullible suckers who back Trump are enabling that very sort of thing today.
It is very unsatisfactory that justice moves so slowly, and that Trump is adept at manipulating all the levers to avoid it. It is all paid for by his donors too. He won’t stick his hand into his own pocket and pay for anything, as the decades have shown.
The case he is answering right now is the least of them, but it’s the one he hasn’t been able to stave off, even though he threw everything at it to stop it going to court.
I suspect that justice will move too slowly to hand him what he deserves, as we probably do not have a country where the rule of law applies to everyone.
He will lose the election again, and hopefully that will end him as a political force, as by that point he will have lost the Presidency, lost the House, and lost the Presidency again.
He boasted to his followers that they were going to win so much that they would get sick of it.
Nope.
Respectfully, i disagree. Trump should not be anywhere near the Republican nomination in the first place. The onus was on the Republican party not to select him. If you have the welfare of the US and for that matter the world in mind you cannot support him.
If you come to the conclusion that I’m prejudging him because of the numerous trials, I’m not. I’m judging him on his actions and his words.
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It is not the party’s decision that is here or there but the question is why he has a pull.
Because most people who have sympathy for him live in a false reality protected from real information about who he is and what he has done. That is why the trials happening before the election is so important because that will present clear evidence of his unfitness for office Trump sympathetic information environments have refused to acknowledge up now
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I think sort of the opposite. The democrats will lose, and Trump will win by default.
I say the democrats and not Biden as it would have been a layup if they were able to convince him not to run, and then replace him with an untainted candidate.
The same could be said of the republicans, if they had chosen Haley, it would have been a layup for them, regardless of the democratic opponent as I get the impression that the majority of people are not impressed with the last 3 1/2 years.
I see the republicans as galvanized, the democrats as demotivated (sort of like Liverpool atm), and the independents begrudgingly leaning towards Trump as they will choose him out of necessity, in order to prevent another 4 years of Biden.
The impression I am left with, is that there are 4 major areas, and it’s 3-1 to the republicans. Economy, crime, border for R, abortion for D. Of the issues I see the abortion being the least importantly ranked. The economy for the most part is the luck of the draw, sometimes there is just nothing you can do about it. The state of border is a democratic made disaster that has been fed by the more liberal policies (pro immigration of any type), and same for crime (anti police). The abortion is the issue created by the republicans, and exasperated by certain states being overly strict.
But, what do I know, it’s all just my gut feeling and the way I speculate and analyze things. I got no skin in the game, I’m on the outside looking in.
Example - 50% of republicans don’t even believe trump has classified documents
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When you are in office, you have an inbuilt advantage of winning the election. The fact that Trump couldn’t do that last time, for me at least, only puts him further away.
People will wonder about Biden, and his age and so on. And they will also wonder about Trump, and all the trouble and circus he brings with him.
So there is uncertainty around the outcome, for sure.
The point of my response was not to comment on the ethics of his nomination, but on the trials, as it has no bearing on his ability to prevent him from running, winning, and carrying out his term, even from Jail. Impeachment would be the only way to remove him if he does win. The trials might prevent him from winning from a negative press pov, or it might give him more of a platform. The jury (I’m punny) is out on which one it is.
I get that, and I also get that there are democrats that think Biden did have some however is was completely by accident. There are always reflections in politics no matter where you look.
That guy is quite interesting, I do however believe it is outdated. The one I read a while back said he needs to wait till closer to the election before making his final analysis. At time of originally reading it was Biden leading.
Partisan democrats are not denying reality in the very existence of documents. This is not a parallel, it is just a great example of the lengths people go to create them where they don’t exist
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"He is likely to make his pronouncement on the 2024 presidential election in early August. He notes that Biden already has the incumbency key in his favour and, having crushed token challengers in the Democratic primary, has the contest key too. “That’s two keys off the top. That means six more keys would have to fall to predict his defeat. A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose.”
The economy is doing well. Why is that a win for the Reps?
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The border is not a strong suit for Republicans. In 2016 Trump ran on that main issue and achieved nothing. He got some sort of fence built for a few miles of the border, didn’t get Mexico to pay, and that was about it.
Fast forward to today and a sensible bill to try to help the issue was just crushed by the Republicans, on Trump’s say so, in order to have a talking point to attack the Dems with.
The Republicans were not good on this issue then, and cannot be taken seriously now either.
It’s a weird one, because there is a fair amount of polling data to suggest it is not a winning issue for the GOP now. For the reasons you suggest, they have lost credibility on the issue except the hawkish portion of their base - yet that is the message they keep hammering on. Either they have internal data showing that framing can make a massive difference, or they are in fact worried about relatively poor ‘activation’ in that base. If the latter, that has to connect to RNC’s dismal fundraising numbers.
I don’t at all disagree. My question is a bit more hand wavey and (at best) a bit deeper - why has the current process led to there being such a population? This is for me ultimately a (all be it a difficult) question where broader questions of how we move beyond hunter gatherer mentality (or not) comes in.
There was a recent blurb by the trillion dollar fund owner from Northern Europe who ventured into the basis of this thought process - basically, should we value ambition (at any cost) or people…
Edit/addition - from my perspective this circus is not particularly interesting and definitely nothing new. The themes, the power plays and theatre are boring at best. Him being re-elected will not make the sky fall it’ll just feed the audience.