Crazy to see such big swings to Lab and Con. Wtf did the lib Dems etc do?!
Nothing. Ok, they arenât popular following being implicit in austerity all those years ago but Iâd say the main driver here is the first past the post system.
Other parties just donât really get a look in because of it.
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Swinging is what liberals do.
Quite possibly, Labour are looking to be ahead in Tory held seats. Many people only vote LD if it is the best anti-Tory vote.
FPTP is a terrible system for multi party systems.
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Iâm a Labour man, but Iâve voted Lib Dem a few times, when thatâs been the likeliest was to unseat a Tory.
Thatâs the problem with first past the post. You have to vote against the party you hate the most, rather than vote for the party you like the most.
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Nothing, so a warning to Starmer!
I suppose I probably could have expressed myself more clearly. I am surprised by the size of the swing in voting intentions: +8 and +3 for the parties perennially in power seems very large over the course of only a month and would be way outside normal sampling variation undertaken by any of the regular political pollsters in Oz. Is there something about the methodology that makes this poll more volatile as I wouldnât have expected (outside maybe a catastrophic election campaign and big external shock) these kind of shifts to occur - regardless of FPTP etc? Presumably if itâs not seen as especially remarkable in UK political circles then there is an obvious explanation.
There are typically such swings in this polling data:
I think the Labour vote share will normalise around the 45% mark but certainly that jump in this polling data for Labour is at least partly due the dip in the Dec data.
You can see that same trend over the years where one of the boys takes a tumble and their little ideological sibling gained the rewards but would normalise in the next poll
Cons gains are small enough to be noise.
Edit: the recent Labour dip corresponds with the uptick for Reform if anything. But we knew already Labour were carrying a lot of âdisgruntled nationalistsâ looking to kick Cons to the kerb. Probably not votes Labour should get too comfortable relying on in future years.
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Rachel chasing those banker votes 
Champagne corks will be popping today at those liquid lunches in the city⌠
Thatâs fine as long as itâs taxed at 100%!
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In the run up to General Election you usually see polls showing voters returning to the two main parties.
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Heard this on the radio this morning. First reaction was, âFucks sakesâ but thinking about it further we know that when you cap bankers bonuses, their salaries increase to take up the difference.
While Iâm still not 100% in agreement with the policy, and it may offer a small opportunity for the Tories to promise something that would probably be universally popular to the wider public, I also know that I know best part of bugger all of that industry.
Thoughts!!!
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Opinion polls are intended to influence the electorate, not inform them.
There are lots of polls carried out by parties that never see the light of day.
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There seems to be two things at play there. On the one hand they are tinkering with the council tax. They did this in Scotland and it was very minor. It possibly made things slightly âfairerâ but doesnât address the inherent problem with it.
The other thing is the land value tax which is more radical. The Scottish Green Party suggested this and it seemed to be stamped on, given how much of Scottish land is owned by a very wealthy minority it doesnât surprise me. Iâm still amazed that they managed to abolish feudal tenure given the vested interests.
The land value tax does have a lot of attractions as it can be both an unavoidable revenue source and a useful economic lever.
The problem with switching systems is having an acceptable transition. The Tories really fucked this up with the Poll Tax. The Council Tax was a fudge to see how much they could get away with. I get the impression that they feared a literal rather than merely political lynching over the poll tax.
With a land value tax most of the big losers would be the idle rich. They tend to be very noisy and well connected but I wonder if a political party would have the guts to take a âpay up or fuck offâ stance with them?
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Rachel Reeves has made some noises about taxing wealth, but weâre a long way off.
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Itâs not the wealth so much as the accumulation of fixed asset. The attraction of a land tax is that it discourages land banking and encourages actual development.
Briefly itâs a effing abomination as it stands and a cover up to under funding councils while keeping the big house owners happy. And you, visibly get very little in return. Just bin emptying being the obvious. Of course local authorities do far far more and responsible for so much but I think the devil will remain in the detail.
The principle of going after the very large homes, and being honest holiday homes / second homes feels like a step forward.
Edit: holiday homes, holiday lets and so on have had to start paying a premium already.
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This is excellent news.
Zillur Rahman, Millerâs lawyer, said the case âmarks a pivotal moment in the history of our country for those who believe in upholding the rights of Palestiniansâ.
The ruling would be âwelcomed by many who at present are facing persecution in their workplaces for speaking out against the crimes of the Israeli state, and the genocide taking place in Gazaâ.
Of course, that defender of fascism the Union of Jewish Students said Mondayâs judgment âmay set a dangerous precedent about what can be lawfully said on campus about Jewish students and the societies at the centre of their social life. This will ultimately make Jewish students less safe.â
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The Israeli government is responsible for any insecurity they might feel. Maybe they should direct their criticism at them.
(Sorry if extreme left wing)
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