UK Politics Thread (Part 4)

[Magnus]

@RedOverTheWater

Maybe Ukraine can try to wait it out until the Trump term passes, in the hope that relations with America might turn back in a more stable and reliable direction? I don’t know if they can do that, and I don’t know if after Trump, America might get another weak-toward-Russia leader. Too many variables for Ukraine to rely on.

Hence Ukraine needs to get security elsewhere.

It is doing an admirable job fighting tooth and nail, but in the end the larger aggressor will probably get what it wants, unless something changes.

I don’t know what might change, but the EU should see Russia as a giant threat near to its border and make plans accordingly, at the least by arming Ukraine until the cost hurts. It will be a lot less expensive than the alternate, assuming Russia continues with its expansionist plans.

Currently, much due to lack of western aid but also due to Ukrainian unwillingness to conscript younger men, it is losing a war that has turned attritional due to seriously skewed firepower and land forces (i.e. Ukraine has not enough stand off fires nor artillery to act as Force Multiplier, which would have been possible with Western Aid)

The eastern front is in partial collapse and a moderately pessimistic view, is that everything can more rapidly collapse soon. In 5-6 few months, as the war wind blows, Russian forces will begin storming Zaporizhzhia city.

Russian forces have the last 3 weeks entered Siversk and now, almost taken control of all of the strategic eastern city of Pokrovst. Small groups are also inside Lyman, but are getting killed. Front there is so porous though, so that small groups enter now and then. In Kupyansk, Russian forces have almost encircled the city, heavy fighting inside. Unless something happens, it will fall too. Meanwhile, Chasiv Yar has almost fallen, city looks like the moon.

Due to lack of attention from Europe, mostly due to a completely uninterested media that gives politicians invested in election cycles no incentives to act; a moderate Worst Case Scenario is getting closer. See also recent US diplomatic pressure on Ukraine to capitulate.

https://x.com/BayesTheorems/status/1990840639638917489
Trend: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1991603920766943562
https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1991224177777369318
Chasiv Yar (still fighting at western edges):

Russians inside southern Pokrovst, seemingly not fearing getting shot, indicating control:
https://x.com/RALee85/status/1991526391624659044

In essence, the idea that Ukraine can wait out Trump is not a viable option. Attrition has moved passed this phase (did so late 2023, early 2024) and Aid must come now and Europe must do something very, very significant or the Russians will succeed at conquering much of Ukraine, setting up the foundations for future (and far worse) war that will be much harder for European powers to stay out of.

These are material losses for the last 6 days.

Even though Russia loses much more than this, they produce much more material and is on Full War Economy with its industry not getting bombed, and, has more reliable allies in North Korea to ship weapons. Consider this: When did you last hear about Ukraine getting shipments of tanks or artillery from the West ? Probably in 23 or 24, doubt you have read them getting much in 24, know you have not read about shipments of tanks in 2025.
Ukraine’s arsenal is finite. So is Russia’s, but Ukraine’s depletes far faster and its not properly replenished. This leads to far higher losses again in disastrous military cascades.

Those are the facts.

[Bonus]

@Magnus

@RedOverTheWater

Maybe Ukraine can try to wait it out until the Trump term passes, in the hope that relations with America might turn back in a more stable and reliable direction? I don’t know if they can do that, and I don’t know if after Trump, America might get another weak-toward-Russia leader. Too many variables for Ukraine to rely on.

Hence Ukraine needs to get security elsewhere.

It is doing an admirable job fighting tooth and nail, but in the end the larger aggressor will probably get what it wants, unless something changes.

I don’t know what might change, but the EU should see Russia as a giant threat near to its border and make plans accordingly, at the least by arming Ukraine until the cost hurts. It will be a lot less expensive than the alternate, assuming Russia continues with its expansionist plans.

Currently, much due to lack of western aid but also due to Ukrainian unwillingness to conscript younger men, it is losing a war that has turned attritional due to seriously skewed firepower and land forces (i.e. Ukraine has not enough stand off fires nor artillery to act as Force Multiplier, which would have been possible with Western Aid)

The eastern front is in partly collapse and a moderately pessimistic view, is that everything can more rapidly collapse soon. In 5-6 few months, as the war wind blows, Russian forces will begin storming Zaporizhzhia city.

Russian forces have the last 3 weeks entered Siversk and now, almost taken control of all of the strategic eastern city of Pokrovst. Small groups are also inside Lyman, but are getting killed. Front there is so porous though, so that small groups enter now and then. In Kupyansk, Russian forces have almost encircled the city, heavy fighting inside. Unless something happens, it will fall too. Meanwhile, Chasiv Yar has almost fallen, city looks like the moon.

Due to lack of attention from Europe, mostly due to a completely uninterested media that gives politicians invested in election cycles no incentives to act; a moderate Worst Case Scenario is getting closer. See also recent US diplomatic pressure on Ukraine to capitulate.

https://x.com/BayesTheorems/status/1990840639638917489
Trend: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1991603920766943562
https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1991224177777369318
Chasiv Yar (still fighting at western edges):

Russians inside southern Pokrovst, seemingly not fearing getting shot, indicating control:
https://x.com/RALee85/status/1991526391624659044

In essence, the idea that Ukraine can wait out Trump is not a viable option. Attrition has moved passed this phase (did so late 2023, early 2024) and Aid must come now and Europe must do something very, very significantor the Russians will succeed at conquering much of Ukraine, setting up the foundations for future (and far worse) war that will be much harder for European powers to stay out of.

These are material losses for the last 6 days.

Even though Russia loses much more than this, they produce much more material and is on Full War Economy with its industry not getting bombed, and, has more reliable allies in North Korea to ship weapons. Consider this: When did you last hear about Ukraine getting shipments of tanks or artillery from the West ? Probably in 23 or 24, doubt you have read them getting much in 24, know you have not read about shipments of tanks in 2025.
Ukraine’s arsenal is finite. So is Russia’s, but Ukraine’s depletes far faster and its not properly replenished. This leads to far higher losses again in disastrous military cascades.

Those are the facts.

In the near future i can see a lot of countries regretting not doing more to support Ukraine or end this war

[Magnus]

[Bekloppt]

There is a general world politics thread, there is a Europe thread and there is a Russia/Ukraine thread all of which are more fitting for this discussion than the UK politics thread.

[Bekloppt]

‘Too little, too late’: damning report condemns UK’s Covid response

[Noo_Noo]

But they are not accountable.

[gasband]

It is racism and it’s not about ignoring the racism. It should be punished. But you can go on eradicating the racism, which might or might not be a manifestation of an valid underlying concern, you will keep on going in cycles of racism. Unless you believe that 100% of all these acts of racism are performed purely out of irrational hatred and there is not a segment of people who might realise the severity of their actions when their underlying concerns are addressed. It seems that you only want the focus to address the action of racism and not try to understand why, you will always be’ 100% of all racist acts are performed by racists so we need to eradicate 100% of these people’. Unless you believe that 100% of these racism are performed by trash racists and not even some of them deserved salvation and help, then great for you.

[tesh]

Calling it out when it occurs is the important thing.

I don’t care for the root cause as it is like asking how long is a piece of string or how deep is a hole… there are a myriad of reasons and most are probably linked to $£YrE - more specifically not have enough.

[Limiescouse]

@gasband

It is racism and it’s not about ignoring the racism. It should be punished. But you can go on eradicating the racism, which might or might not be a manifestation of an valid underlying concern, you will keep on going in cycles of racism. Unless you believe that 100% of all these acts of racism are performed purely out of irrational hatred and there is not a segment of people who might realise the severity of their actions when their underlying concerns are addressed. It seems that you only want the focus to address the action of racism and not try to understand why, you will always be’ 100% of all racist acts are performed by racists so we need to eradicate 100% of these people’. Unless you believe that 100% of these racism are performed by trash racists and not even some of them deserved salvation and help, then great for you.

That whole thing, particularly this,

It seems that you only want the focus to address the action of racism and not try to understand why,

a spectacular misrepresentation of what I said.

What I said is it is important we don’t draw a distinction where there is none. That doesnt mean ignoring the economic issues that have allowed this to become a movement. It is just that options on the table when trying to draw compromise with this movement, or attract its voters, is very different and much darker when we pretend that economic anxiety driven racism is not actually still racism

[gasband]

Ok fair. Although I don’t think what RedWhippet is trying to downplay that some racism is not racism. It’s all about trying to delve deeper so that we don’t just deal with the actions, but the motivation. If the motivation is just pure evil, then let’s punish and eradicate that. If it’s something else for some like economic then let’s deal with that while punishing the actions.

[Rambler]

Case adjourned until April 2027. He was first arrested in 2020…why is it taking so long…

Ex Liverpool mayor Joe Anderson denies bribery and misconduct

[koptician]

Reform UK's former Wales leader Nathan Gill jailed for accepting pro-Russian...

[peterroberts]

Some clips in this piece of him shilling for Russia and also of his police interview. Ten years is quite the deterrent and I’d imagine there are others very worried now about just how much the police know about their dealings with Russian ‘businessmen’.

Reform UK’s former Wales leader jailed for taking bribes for pro-Russia speeches

[Noo_Noo]

Well given that Farage has spouted Russian propeganda on numerous occasions, as well as saying Putin is the leader he most admires, you have to wonder. There’s also a nice little triangle between Farage, Arron Banks and Russia too.

[Rambler]

Another one bites the dust…and another one’s gone.

Iqbal Mohamed quits Jeremy Corbyn's new left-wing party

[RedWhippet]

Is Your Party going to turn into My Party? Or maybe the Popular Front of Judea?

[Magnus]

Yes, but even he realises how dangeorous this is:
https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1991954130450186495

(halving peace time army is not the worst stipulation in that awful document btw)

[Lynch04]

@gasband

Ok fair. Although I don’t think what RedWhippet is trying to downplay that some racism is not racism. It’s all about trying to delve deeper so that we don’t just deal with the actions, but the motivation. If the motivation is just pure evil, then let’s punish and eradicate that. If it’s something else for some like economic then let’s deal with that while punishing the actions.

I am just piggybacking onto your post because I feel it is relevant and agree that it is important to look at the root causes.
I also believe that Red Whippet or any poster on this forum for that matter has tried to down play Racism.

I personally feel we are all guilty of assuming/stereotyping and at the same time defining what is Racism. I am a White British Male, so although I have an opinion of what Racism is, I have no lived experience and no right to speak for, or judge what is, unless it is directed at me.

The majority of us will assume that the voter sample in the Guardian article are predominantly of white ethnicity. A lot of people also associate people having concerns about the Countries Immigration/Asylum policy as being racist (undoubtedly there will be some who are). Again we will assume that it is only White British who have these concerns.

There will always be underlying stereotyping, irrelevant of demographic and/or back ground. There will also always be prejudice and discrimination. Unfortunately that is the world we live in.
As you suggest, we need to delve deeper, eradicate evil motivation and understand why people feel the way they do.
By just dismissing their view(s) as racist, stupid, irrelevant we are just fueling the situation and providing easy ammunition for RW parties.

[Noo_Noo]

@Magnus

Yes, but even he realises how dangeorous this is:
https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1991954130450186495

(halving peace time army is not the worst stipulation in that awful document btw)

Just be wary that Farage will say anything to take the heat off him, especially with regards to Russia at the moment. Take it with a pinch of salt. He is very skilled at playing the room.

[tesh]

@Noo_Noo

@Magnus

Yes, but even he realises how dangeorous this is:
https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1991954130450186495

(halving peace time army is not the worst stipulation in that awful document btw)

Just be wary that Farage will say anything to take the heat off him, especially with regards to Russia at the moment. Take it with a pinch of salt. He is very skilled at playing the room.

In a way it is an easy shot on goal. The UK cannot do anything but go along so he can shoot his mouth off, live out his persona, of straight talking non-nonsense chap, and, look shiny and statesman like.

However, no amount of rolling in glitter will make him shine.