UK Politics Thread (Part 4)

There’s no denying that the US, UK, and others have made errors—Afghanistan and Iraq being key examples. However, I think there are critical distinctions in governance, accountability, and intent that differentiate democracies from regimes like Russia (and China).

One of the most significant differences is democracy itself. In democratic systems, public opinion and opposition matter. For example, the Labour Party became unelectable for years due to the Iraq War—a direct consequence of public backlash (Its estimated 6M-10M protested in Western countries). Similarly, the public’s disapproval played a significant role in the decision not to intervene in Syria, even when there were compelling arguments to do so. These decisions may not always be right, but they demonstrate that people in democracies have the ability to influence their governments.

Contrast this with Russia, where political opposition is systematically crushed, journalists critical of the government face persecution, and ordinary citizens risk imprisonment for expressing dissent. There is no free press or freedom to protest, and many live with a genuine fear of windows, radiation tipped umbrellas, or those going on holiday to visit cathedrals.

Another major distinction is intent. Western countries have undeniably engaged in wars of intervention, but Russia’s actions are more overtly about colonisation and territorial expansion. The invasion of Ukraine is not about stabilising a region or removing a dictator (as flawed as those justifications might be). It is about subjugating a neighbour to expand influence and territory, under the guise of reviving historical empires.

None of this is to excuse the West’s mistakes but to highlight that democratic systems, however imperfect, allow for a level of accountability, self-correction, and freedom that authoritarian regimes like Russia’s fundamentally suppress. That, to me, makes the two very different.

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Does that mean Johnny Marr is Alastair Campbell?

And Robert Smith is John Major.

Really….first paragraph

Treasury’s analysis on the immediate economic impact of leaving the EU, shows a vote to leave will push the UK economy into recession - the Chancellor explains.

George Osbourne was the Chancellor, so of course it was his speech. The details of the speech were from the Treasury’s analysis.

So the speech/treasury analysis was misleading, the media were leading with this, it was stated on the Gov. website, the critics had to point this out but by then it is already in the public domain. It’s already being used in debate.

Just to clarify, regarding your Disinflation comment. The critics highlighted off the back of “The Speech” that house prices would be between 0.6% and 8.6% less in cash terms (2018) than they are now (2016). So if a house was worth £213,000 in 2016 and £226,000 in 2018, would the increase in price fall inline with the negative real cash value suggested?

Yet there was clearly a massive drop year on year from 2014-2015 before Cameron got his second term. It doesn’t matter how you try to spin the narrative the graph clearly shows that there hasn’t been negative Y-o-Y since 2012, which could be argued was a result of the banking crisis overseen by whom…
Little impact…based on deals in the pipeline. Really, the whole market is going to crash and you follow through on a deal, even paying a higher price for the first few months. Come on…

Either you have principles and stick to them, or you can keep engaging in whataboutism.

It’s wrong no matter who does it.

Corbyn is still at best naïve or worse a disingenuous piece of shit though.

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You are right, I do apologise. It had nothing to do with a 2nd Referendum because Labour didn’t put it in their Manifesto.
I was thinking of the European Parliamentary elections which were dominated by the Brexit party.

Intellectual humility……and celebrating your own ignorance? Hmmm

Well, that is a very play ground comment.

I have no bigger chip on my shoulder than you do to “Leavers”. I respect people who voted Remain, they used their right to vote for the path they believed in, as did the Leavers.
The point I am trying to debate with you and others is that I believe both sides used subjective statements to justify their point, convince the electorate and in this case it was no different, whether it be over promising or scare mongering and additionally, I responded to @Mascot post, where I suggested that what constitutes a lie depends on your political alignment.

Why do you see it as ‘me’ winning? Iv accepted the result of the referendum, if that’s what you mean? If I was to use your rhetoric I could say you lost, get over it. That doesn’t achieve anything though does it? Nor does the attitude of ‘Nothing but a shit future’.
The UK has faced some massive issues whilst being part of the EU, has it not? And it will face some massive issues going forward by not being a part of it.
Is the UK thriving post Referendum? No. Is that purely down to leaving the EU?? It is hard to say. My view, glancing at the graph trends (so pictures without context) is that the UK is following a similar pattern to the rest of the big EU countries. Again, without delving too much into the root causes, Germany, who we all pretty much use as barometer of success is under performing.

German economy falters amid political unrest at home and abroad.

I get that a lot of people don’t agree with the referendum result, I get that it affects peoples situations. However, at the same time anything can be achieved with a positive attitude.

What alternative would you propose?

Except… They were not. They were mischaracterisations of the analysis, which ironically supports your original point about lying. The Treasury didn’t lie. Osborne twisted the facts.

Again, it wasn’t the Treasury analysis. If you re-read the paragraph you are quoting, that is nether the analysis by critics, nor by the OBR which is mentioned just preceding that.

This is quite clearly the reporter taking the house prices decline, and comparing it with what the OBR predicted for house prices. Not the analysis’ claim in and of itself.


Source: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5a80772140f0b62305b8b510/hm_treasury_analysis_the_immediate_economic_impact_of_leaving_the_eu_web.pdf (page 22)

Those damned biased surveyors!

In any case, re-reading the analysis, I’m not sure I can find any concrete details on their assumptions. They seem to have modelled two specific scenarios: a shock, and a severe shock, for which the assumptions at least seem to include uncertainty causing disinvestment, which may have been alleviated by precisely that political paralysis until 2019. They don’t state how those scenarios then translated into their house price modelling, but I suspect they may not have accounted for the complexity of the interactions between the variables, such as the exchange rate decrease making UK property more attractive to foreign investors.

My personal hindsight-informed working hypothesis is that the exchange rate decreases led to an influx of overseas investors, but there doesn’t seem to be any statistics with regards to this. Alternative explanations for why the prices may not have declined as much as expected may include the search for yield in a low-interest rate environment, with investors preferring property to bonds, as an example. The uncertainty that resulted from the vote may not have been as large as the analysis anticipated either, given all the squabbling that took place before Brexit was even defined.

If you look at the trend line as opposed to what is obviously an anomaly…

“I’m neutral” – goes on to mischaracterise the global financial crisis that was caused by the US banking system. Technically, if you want to talk about the banking crisis overseen by whom, you’d be looking at Clinton/Bush for presiding over financial deregulation in the US.

Are you going to tell me when you buy a home you think about what it’s value is going to be like in a few months, as opposed to having relief at finding a place to move to, without the additional stress of having to continue searching, worrying what the market will be like in a few months time, whether it goes up or down?

Just look at how many people were caught out by the mortgage rate increases, even though the low interest rates were a historical anomaly.

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I refer you to what I quoted. “You still can’t accept it can you?”

Here we go with “both sides” again. If you look, there will always be liars on “both sides”. Except, the magnitude to which one side deploys it was and is much larger than “the other side”.

A lie is a lie, regardless of political alignment. I’m not sure I would characterise Osborne’s speech as definitively a lie, but to me, it does cross the line.

Here are samples of some outright lies:

An attitude change does nothing. You can’t pull yourself up by your bootstraps, because it is fundamentally physically impossible. In line with that,

And the facts are, the issues faced while being part of the EU are far dwarfed by the issues being faced by not being part of the EU. The result, no matter how you try to deny it, including by pointing towards how EU countries are suffering too, is that the UK has done worse by leaving the EU, while facing similar issues in addition because those issues are global. Germany and other EU countries have their own individual idiosyncratic issues, but it doesn’t mean that their EU membership is the cause of it.

That’s the problem with the stereotypical Brexiteer mindset right here. Shooting oneself in the foot cheerily while saying “anything can be achieved with a positive attitude”. That may be true in isolation, but you sure as hell don’t handicap yourself deliberately.

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That’s literally my point

With respect, even the language used here is what I’m trying, clumsily, to highlight. The US/UK invasions were ‘errors’/‘mistakes’, whereas Russia’s motivation is subjugation, territory, influence. The US invasions/regime change in Iraq, Afghan, Vietnam, Venezuela, Haiti, Libya etc had the same motivations of power and control

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You’re still wrong.

You’re are not defining what you mean by a lie. You seem to be defining a lie as anything a politician says that they subsequently don’t/won’t/can’t deliver. That’s obviously absurd.

Not being able to do something because you got in power and found the situation much more dire than everyone had been led to believe is not lying. It’s annoying and unfortunate, you can even argue a bit incompetent - but you can’t argue there was conscious intent to mislead or deceive. You can’t argue it was motivated by personal gain or corrupt

Boris Johnson was a liar. A man so versed and routine in his lying, that it was just his nature. He lied to his partners, he lied to his colleagues, and he lied to the public. He lied as a journalist, as an editor and as a politician. He even lied about stuff he didn’t need to lie about. He took lying to the level of psychosis. That set a standard in Parliament and his colleagues followed it.

There is simply no comparison here. I’m not saying that Labour are not going to end up lying - Blair did, spectacularly - but for now, the idea they are all the same is patently nonsense, as is the suggestion we are blind to the lies told by our ‘own side’. Point me to something Labour have done in the first six months as egregiously untruthful as the Tories covid response, or the Rwanda scheme, or austerity, or Brexit and then we can talk.

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Fair points.
But a bit like saying my turd doesn’t smell as bad as yours, so is therefore not offensive.

They both have an offensive smell, just one is worse than the other.

Page 4 of how to win friends and influence people. Bloke’s a political buffoon.

I assume sometime after he said it otherwise he’d be locked up by now. With murderers kicked out of prison to make room for him.

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I’ve been saying this to people at work all day.

Deadset genius.

Have you actually read my posts? I have actually defended Labour on the recent budget and if my memory serves me correct in a recent debate with you.
I’m not defining anything, Infact my whole debate which highlights the hypocrisy in your statement is that the Leave side of the arguement couldn’t deliver what they said because they weren’t in power and yet you stand firm that everything they said is a lie.
So how about you define what a lie is? And be consistent with it.

I agree about Boris, I’m not disputing this.

We all know that we are going to be lied to, whether intentionally, which is definitely a lie or unintentionally because of circumstances. Either way, the other parties will call them out as liars, and this will be mirrored by their supporters/voters.

Please state where I have said that the lies are the same level. Iv never argued that point, all Iv argued is that in my opinion lies are viewed differently depending on Party alignment and as of yet, you have done nothing to convince me otherwise.
In one of your recent posts, you implied that people who voted leave did so on the back of a quick search on Google. Where as you were more informed because you read up on it, etc.
Is this not the same…you consider Remainers to be educated and informed, but Leavers based their decision on reading a misleading report on the internet.
Both sides provided misinformation, both sets of voters were voting for something without knowing the potential fallout from it. In a sense it would have been easier for people to vote remain because it didn’t involve change.

How can you ask me to provide something Labour have done in 6 months which is a complete lie compared to 14 years. Austerity is not solely a Tory or UK issue, the world as a whole has gone through some testing times since 2016, Brexit (mainly Europe), Covid, the invasion of Ukraine, US voting in Trump twice and recently the Middle East conflict.

Can I ask you a genuine question? Would you be happy if the Country was successful/thriving under a non Labour government?

I can hand on heart say that I wouldn’t care which party was in Government as long as they were improving the lives of the people.

So, are you happy to agree that Osbourne, a remainer and the Chancellor lied? Or do you want to dismiss it as twisting the facts?

The report from the Treasury said “House Prices” would be 10% to 18% lower on a vote leave, relative to voting Remain. Osbourne has quoted this in his speech, yes or no?
I am quite happy for you to interpret this statement as Disinflation for the sake of your argument, so taking this into consideration were House prices reflective of this?

Them damned biased surveyors, how dare there be only a 5% increase in confidence of house prices increasing. Note it is a 5% increase on current expectations and is only a 3 month time frame.

An anomaly, quite a baseless defence. Spin it how you want, there has not been a negative since 2012. Nothing, quite as dramatic as what was suggested.

Where have I mischaracterised anything, I am stating a fact based on the Graph that you are using to support your argument. I didn’t blame Labour for the banking recession did I?
Technically, it was an over aggressive funding by banks globally, I don’t think you can blame any Government directly for the cause, but you can question the handling of said crisis - Nb I am speaking generally.

No I am not, but I may look at the price over a 2 year period, but if the Chancellor is going to twist facts and state that house prices are going to crash in 2 years time by 10-18% common trend is to buy a more expensive house, so a 10-18% drop is going to be greater the higher the value of the property.

Could the Mortgage rates increase be linked to people being poorer?

But in the same sentence you are happy to suggest UK’s downfall is a result of not being a EU Member.




Depends on whether you consider omission of a relevant portion lying. If you do, then I’m happy to acquiesce to your definition.

Honestly, no idea? Because we don’t have that counterfactual. If we had other information that could reliably predict house price trends, e.g. something that measures an underlying driver of house prices, then yes we could probably make a conclusion one way or another. The evidence seems to suggest though that the trend in house price growth did materially change post-referendum.

Once again, you’re missing the point. It wasn’t predicted to go negative. You keep harping on house prices going negative, but they weren’t predicted to go negative.

To be precise, the report examined a shock situation and a severe shock situation, and found that house prices would be 10-18% lower than where they would have been without a Brexit. It didn’t claim a decrease. The decrease was just the projection from whatever other information was available at the time.

I think generally speaking, it has been largely attributed to the deregulation of the financial industry in the USA, permitting subprime mortgages to be marketed otherwise, while becoming a large enough issue for the balance sheets of many banks. And when this issue erupted, the contagion effects were enough to torpedo the rest of the world.

You might not have blamed them overtly, but I don’t think you have a leg to stand on given the portion I quoted.

Yes but on the other hand you have a nice house that you were willing to pay the previous price to live in. That’s my point. People would value that, and the houses that they were buying, more than a supposed price drop in the future.

Look at how obsessed people are with “getting on the property ladder” – I think there’s a blind faith in the UK that property prices will keep rising and are a good investment, regardless of whatever anything else says.

You’re missing my point here. I referred to the mortgage rates increase solely to point out that people are not good at predicting the future nor accounting for changes in situations. People made affordability calculations and plans for the future based solely on what was in front of them at the time. Similarly, no one would think about a potential price decrease in general if it means they miss out on the house that they do have.

I could tell you all about the trade frictions, increased bureaucracy costs, export barriers, and things that actually lead to impacts on GDP.

You could Google economic analyses on whether there was a material negative impact of Brexit on GDP. But you won’t, because you keep claiming you’re neutral, but you just don’t want to see your own bias. Instead, you’ll keep looking at headline figures, and ignore all the different inputs tha tlead to that.