You could tell me all about the Trade frictions, increased bureaucracy costs, etc and I would listen and respond in kind.
I have never said that Brexit has been perfect or a success, I am also not going to claim that everything will be rosy in however many years. Unfortunately, I misplaced my crystal ball .
Again, you are making a false statement and using it in a way to undermine my point of view. I donât keep claiming to be neutral but do try and take a neutral view.
Although I am happy to reflect on the points you have raised, I do find it a bit hypocritical, when you say that I donât see my own bias, look at headline figures and ignore all the different inputs that lead to thatâŠ.
I donât really agree with your caveat but would be happy to agree to disagree.
[quote=âredalways, post:705, topic:4542â]
Honestly, no idea? Because we donât have that counterfactual. If we had other information that could reliably predict house price trends, e.g. something that measures an underlying driver of house prices, then yes we could probably make a conclusion one way or another. The evidence seems to suggest though that the trend in house price growth did materially change post-referendum.
[quote=âLynch04, post:703, topic:4542â]
Well according to the Treasury the OBR give a predicted rise of 9.4% over 2years, which is then seen as 0.6-8.6% less in cash terms than they are now. Now, I would read that as the average price of a house would by at least 0.6% less than it is currently. Alternatively, it may be interpreted as an 8.8% or 0.8% price increase. Hopefully someone more educated in economics will clear this up.
Yes the report examined a shock and severe shock situation, I must have missed the optimistic report.
It depends how you want to interpret the Treasuries report. As you suggest, I may be missing the point but If the OBR are predicting a 9.4% increase over 2 years, a 10-18% decrease would mean a negative. Or, as highlighted in the criticism it said -0.6 - 8.6 over the two years both are would be be a negative.
House prices never dropped over two years and as the graph shows it never went into a negative.
See previous response above, and again I stated a fact based on the trend line of your graph. But you are right, I do not have a leg to stand on given the portion you quoted.
See, I can reflect on my biased opinion and accept the facts I have been providedâŠâŠ
Yeah, but house prices are dropping over the next two years, Iâm going to become unemployed, interest rates are going up which is going to put me in negative equity. Sounds like 2007-2009 all over again.
No shit Sherlock (joke) So letâs just put that Treasury report in the bin.
You are getting hung up on a turn of phrase. The main point is that the leave vote was carried (and won) on a lot of ignorant voters. Vast swathes of people literally did not know what they were voting for. This is true.
The number one search on Google in the UK the morning after the vote was âwhat is the EUâ. The next few were variants of this.
You could say the same about remain voters too, but remain wasnât a vote for sweeping, generational change. There was far more onus on the leave voter to actually know what they were doing. They voted without really having a clue what they were voting for.
Iâd put myself in that category. I donât understand all the complexities and nuances of international trade. I wasnât qualified enough to make my own informed judgement on Brexit. I was only informed to the extent I knew how uninformed I was.
There were lots of reasons why people voted to leave the EU, but very few of them proactively voted to sever trading and regulatory links with our closest trading partner - which is what Brexit actually was. Lots of people voted leave because they donât like foreigners and immigrants (again note the upsurge in racially aggravated incidents following Brexit). Lots of people had swallowed decades of lies and misinformation about the EU. Lots of people have had their lives ruined by politicians over the last 40 years and wanted to stick it to what the perceived as the âeliteâ.
And none of this should be read that Iâm putting the boot into leave voters. You blame the conman not the conned. I donât hate people that voted leave. I reserve that for the cunts that convinced them it would all be fine.
I was worried. But you cannot imagine the Starmer Reeves incompetence. Johnson was a fool but a bright fool. This is old school left wing, out of date stupidity. Do not answer now. See you in 4 years.
Starmer is not pursuing Old School Marxist-Leninst economical theories though.
He is left of centre economically as far as I can understand from having read the odd article about him and his government.
I do not really understand why you think the current Labour government is left wing. It is left surely in the British political climate, but probably not wing. Corbyn and the people around him, was however more wing and I can understand that you use the wing expression on him etcâŠ
I think the UK can actually accept a reasonable share of responsibility. Without a doubt, the repackaging and tiering of US subprime mortgages into ostensibly first-rate debt instruments was the match, but UK regulation that allowed the likes of Northern Rock to rely almost exclusively on short- and mid-term paper would certainly qualify as tinder.
A bit dry, but it highlights the very low percentage of mortgages that NR had backed with retail deposits. One of the weird things about the bank run that brought NR down was that is actually only started after the emergency liquidity measures - the commercial paper market had spooked long before the retail deposits did.
Under Basel now, an institution that size just couldnât have that much exposure (~75%) not covered by deposits.
Yes, leavers voted for something they didnât know what they were voting for, the whole 52%. So, in the same sense the leave campaign was based on speculation of what could happen.
The rest of your point is subjective, non factual and based on your opinion. Racial aggravated crime on the rise, have you took into consideration the rise of support for RW politics across Europe? I suppose you are going to blame the rise of antisemitism on the Leave vote also.
I will leave you to your fish bowl/echo chamber.
You still didnât answer my question, no surprise there. I will make it even more definitive, where would your vote lie, a successful, thriving country under a Tory government or a mediocre government under Labour?
Was it really a successful and thriving country prior to the Labour electoral win though ? The Tories reigned for very long. Was there not in general percieved to be a downward spiral, much of it blamed on being shackled to the European Union? That is my perception.
All of this across the globe is down to the increase in the wealth gap. Populists then rise as they offer simple solutions very loudly and that chimes with people including those with existing questionable views.
Its crazy that those that benefit from the wealth gap then go on and sponsor the populists that drive that wedge further and the voting public go for it every time.
And every time we watch these populists fail. This brexit in a box, Johnson the same, and the rest will follow. It just depends how much they burn on the way.
So what is the EU? What is their main focus out of their centralised economy? Itâs all about money. Itâs definitely not out of the interests of the common man.
Look at the bailouts, austerity was forced on countries such as Greece, when the EU bailed them out with interest on top. It has been considered the bailout of Greece was a bit too heavy to stop them leaving the EU. Either way it was a catalyst for poverty in a number of member states.
With Brexit, the EU openly stated that the UK would be tossed aside, become a poor brother, along with a number of other âhow dare youâ comments. At any point did they say, we respect your decision, letâs separate amicably and look at the best way we can go about moving forward. No! Why was that?
Because it is all about power and control.
If the EU is so great, why has there been a rise in support of Right wing parties? This hasnât been evident in the UK. Sure you had Brexit party and reform which were all about leaving the EU, but their supporters left as soon as Brexit was done. The UK hasnât got the National Front (Le Penn) challenging for power, like France does, which is echoed across numerous countries in Europe.
Regarding Populism, surely by its definition it is political view which changes. You could say Farage and Johnson, were encouraging Populism by going against Europe. However, since Brexit, Remain voters could be accused of populism.
So, taking that into account, surely populism would be against the Tories for being elite and also against Remain for not accepting the general will of the people?
Its interesting that you think Right Wing Populism and Brexit are somehow different things. To me they are two sides of the same coin.
Racially aggravated crimes increased after Brexit. Thatâs a fact.
The question is absolutely pointless. Obviously anyone would take thriving country, but itâs such a pointless, idiotic question, so detached from reality, it isnât worth any time.
Would you have supported Roy Hodgson if heâd played attractive, attacking football and won loads of games? There was as much chance of that as the Tories creating a thriving country.
Youâve got this silly idea that I vote tribally. There have been many times in my life that I havenât voted Labour. Sometimes because it wasnât the best choice to block the worst option. Sometimes out of disgust. Sometimes because I was complacent.
Simply a group of nations trying to work together with common goals. Up to you if you like that or not.
Why did Greede need a bailout? To stop it defaulting on debt following the 2008 financial crash that people here think is Gordon Brownâs fault. It threatened eu financial stability and i duppoee it could argued that Greece was in fir a hard time irrespective of what happened.
This is just bollocks and sums up Brexiteers in a nut shell. We want to leave but afterwards we will blame you for not having any if the benefits of membership which we feel uou should give us because⊠Plus the UK were complete pricks during the negotiations. Plenty examples of that. Reap what you sow.
Regarding the last stuff youâve pulled from Wiki or wherever, ask yourself why are so called Elites painting themselves as populists? This the fundamental probiem here. Farage, for example pretending to be an ordinary working fellow. Its just bollocks along with everything he says.
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