I think you might have mixed up the numbers. As 62,500 is the exact number that Ukraine is reported to have mobilised.
The concept that it’s some kind of large exercise building field hospitals, bridges and other infrastructure support near the boarder is a bit of a stretch.
When coupled with cyber attacks and a number of ceasefire violations
It certainly looks like escalating to war.
The separatists have begun shelling all over, it is escalating to war. This is a blatant attack cooked up with a faker than fake Casus Belli by the Kremlin. Anyone supporting or defending this should feel shame, nothing else. Ukraine is exercising impressive restraint tonight.
It is beyond obvious what is happening now. This is the pre-war period, where Russia uses the Seperatists to destablise and shell, and blow up stuff, while their forces move into attack positions. It is beyond bonkers that Kreml think anyone but insane people will buy the latest propaganda about an imminent Ukrainian offensive and chemical attacks, blowing up pipelines, etc. So fucking blatant false flags it’s not even serious !
Threat assessment. ISW thinks large scale campaign to be imminent today. Read details.
so what happens from here in your opinion?
not from an end result, not asking you to predict who ends up where or anything, but how long does the fighting last before diplomacy becomes front and centre again, is this gonna be long and bloody, or smash and grab…
If I had to speculate, it’s relatively quick (a few weeks). The west looks on with disapproval but ultimately does little (freezes a few bank accounts, maybe prevents trade). Both sides then negotiate for peace. Part of the occupied land returns to Ukraine but overall Russia gains territory.
From a weak negotiating position Ukraine becomes effectively a puppet state. Except for the people of Ukraine it soon becomes old news. Only good for fish and chip paper.
I had the same sort of view working in Hounslow, though post-Concorde days Plane lights all in a nice row in the sky coming in to land in the afternoon. It makes you appreciate just how rare plane crashes are.
I’m finding it quite interesting how the West, but in particular, the UK, are being very transparent with the public with the intelligence they are gaining.
I guess this may be in reaction in past events where Russia has been able to control media/social media and thus control the narrative.
It’s difficult for Russia to lay the blame with Ukraine if US and UK have released intelligence hours earlier to the contrary.
Russian doctrine is not about efficiency, it’s about using a sledge-hammer to crack a walnut.
Here we go, getting worse and worse:
So far 1 Ukrainian soldier killed so far today.
Bat shit insane. What is worse, some absolute morons will lap it up:
Will economic sanctions and shutting off Russian gas flow to Europe destabilize Russia? How hard will economic sanctions really hit? People in Russia will probably feel it, but can’t see it stopping Putin. Europe will eventually need that gas flow back on i would think. Bulgaria is 100% dependant on Russian gas or close to it i think. It’s nice to get heads of state saying they’ll work on replacing it, but it will have some real crippling effects on poorer eastern Europe countries and will be felt across the globe with rising prices.
I wonder if this strategy is a win, win for Putin.
War and he destabilises Europe both immediately and in the long term. No war and he gets some sort of concession/advantage. There’s no down side for Putin and Russia it seems.
For the particularly stupid amongst us to believe. Captured spy tells all on Russian tv. Ukraine also flooding Belarus with spies who will do destablising missions there. I don’t even…
More dumb Russian propaganda that some will actually run with and believe:
Russian Army (of course) not leaving Belarus like they promised.
Which probably means that Russia will “counter” the phony Ukrainian make-believe offensive and use it as a pretext to engage with their regulars.
The have brought so many last 2-3 weeks. And several are now ready to go, one is already laid, across the Chernobyl exclusion zone.
A lot of movement in addition to shelling. The movement is what worries me, as the shelling could theoretically be deescalated. But the movement and final positioning. Sigh, very, very worried.
Diane Abbott and Jeremy Corbyn.
@ISMF1 all of my posts from the last days are missing I think. Did you delete them all when you merged the thread ?
