US Election 2024

Shame there werent any other articles about it anywhere else on the whole internet.

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He has most definitely said it was his last term, people just love to ignore that and focus on something else he has said that suits their interpretation of what he will do, and I guess the same could be said about me. I am 100% sure history will show that this is his last term no matter how many times people try to convince otherwise.

I looked at several, next time ill send you a pm first, alternatively you can just believe I am being disingenuous, It doesn’t bother me.

The Orange Tornado has promised so so much, with very little hope of achieving it… This will undoubtedly lead him to saying at some point down the road… he needs another term to fullfil his promises -

You are not disingenuous, you are just incurious and content to participate in discussions without listening or reading (to understand - reading to confirm a bias is a different activity). The expectation of someone asking a question to help them understand something is for them to not have already formed a strong opinion about the issue that would make them preemptively reject certain answers.

This is a constant thread of the way you engage in these debates
Strong opinion - > retreat to acknowledgements you dont know enough when corrected → some time later return back to the exact same strong opinion you have previously had corrected and anyone who doesnt agree with you is biased.

“JFK isnt an anti vaxer. That is just LW propaganda from people who dont want to debate his opinions…[presented with overwhelming evdiece of his long history of being anti vax]…oh, well Im busy and I dont have time to read up about him.”

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Step 1 - refuse to acknowledge he has said (repeatedly) the things he has said
Step 2 - yet again refuse to grapple with the issue of how bad it is to float this shit even if he sometimes says the opposite and has no intention of doing it and it doesnt come to pass.

As Arminius said, the tweet in question is literally quoting him floating the idea of congress helping him find a way to get another term. Even if you had never heard him say it before, it’s literally right there in the post you are responding to.

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How about this: give Ukraine what it needs to kick Putin’s ass, because, oh I dunno, it is the right thing to do?

Appeasement will just allow Putin to regroup and rearm, before going again. What’s next? Poland?

Putin is in charge of the relationship with the United States, and he is about to get what he wants in Ukraine. What America is communicating to the world is that there will be no help, no backing, no decency, and international law will be meaningless. So since might is right, everyone needs to think about how to get themselves some nukes as soon as possible.

Ukraine gave up their nuclear arsenal when the Soviet Union was dismantled. 1994. 1700 nuclear weapons. In exchange for security guarantees from the international community.

What lesson has been taught to a watching world in allowing Ukraine to be smashed?

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That when Putin gets what he wants then subsequently goes after one of the Baltic former Soviet states that the US will do nothing in response and NATO will be dead.

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Also, no one wants Ukraine to force a Russian surrender. What one wants is to aid Ukraine so that Russia is forced to change it’s calculus and withdraw it’s invading army so there can be peace. But Trump can’t do that without sbstantially increasing aid, he can only force Ukrainian conditional capitulation; which is hardly peace and will hardly lead to anything but future war.

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Exactly. And if you want to give a bully pause for thought, you need a big stick. Get some nukes asap. Russia might still beat you in a war, if they want to go all out, but in the exchange you can wipe out their capital or other cities, and give them enough damage to last over 100 years that they would really rather leave you alone.

Getting nukes asap if you are a democracy, is not easy though. It is not easy for an autocracy either (but far easier).

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Nukes are of use only mainly for deterrence. Little else.

There can’t be any justification given to use Nukes preemptively. Not only is the country risking their population , it’s just not done. And no country with nukes is going to say I’ll rather leave you alone after the other country has launched a nuclear attack against them. They’ll just turn the first country into a nuclear wasteland. Kill millions in the process and then say , yeah. I’d rather leave you alone

The use of nukes as a preemptive tool is a zero sum game.

Those nukes were stored in Ukraine but they belonged to the Soviets. Ukraine didn’t have the capability to access them. Codes etc.

That was a different time before Putin’s rise to power.

Nukes? We do all know that one nuke between anybody and Russia will start a chain of events which will pretty much sterilise the planet of life don’t we? Russia’s Tsar Bomber was more powerful that every single piece of ordinance (including Japan) used in WW2. The planet could kill everything that breathes 10 times over.

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Nukes are of use only mainly for deterrence. Little else.
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Quite. And if Ukraine had them, Putin would not have invaded.

The international community did not defend Ukraine as it promised when she gave up her nukes. The lesson is… get your own deterrent then.

I understand they belonged to the USSR, which broke up.

That’s a heck of a lot of raw materials in the hands of Ukraine, even if Russia had the access codes to actually work them.

In an age of non-proliferation Ukraine did a great thing. Less nukes in the world is obviously a good thing. Ideally no nuclear weapons.

But the international community did not protect Ukraine, as we’ve seen, so I would imagine they feel utterly betrayed.

It’s a very harsh and extreme lesson, but if the international community won’t protect you even after they said they would, who will? We may be entering an age where it is every man for himself, and the world is a massively more dangerous place for it.

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This is of course a lesson, but I don’t see a point discussing nukes much now. It is too late now anyway to build and use as a deterrant in the current industrial war.

@RedOverTheWater

In case you want details, I have an expert thread for you.
https://x.com/ArmsControlWonk/status/1856965582857671061

Not that it’s on topic, but this thread is about to die anyway.

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Getting this in about the election before this closes…this thread tells a more nuanced story than “dems stayed home” to explain what happened in the election

https://x.com/AJentleson/status/1857219633268334885

Remember, the EC system creates some weird patterns. There is evidence in the national vote of Dems staying at home, but that appears to be concentrated in “safe states” where it didnt matter (it always matters). In the battleground states though Harris actually turned out her base, increasing the raw totals from Biden in NV, NC, WI, and GA. The issue is across the battleground states Biden voters switched over to vote for Trump.

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As earlier it was a protest vote against the current political system.

Well they’ve got the change they asked for now even though I suspect the outcome of that will not be what they wanted

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Something along the lines of this

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