And so it starts, the lead-up to the US 2024 elections. I have no skin in this, imo its just a lot more interesting than other elections due to there being a set amount of years that a president can be in office. In Canada there can be several elections within a 4 year period, and I find this quite annoying and a manipulative way to stay in power for a while longer. Is UK the same?
The Iowa caucus has started today with Republicans starting the journey on who they see as the republican candidate for presidency. The clear favourite is Trump, followed by DeSantis, Haley and Ramaswamy. I donāt think anyone has a chance, however the best positioned would be DeSantis, and would be much closer if he didnāt make some major mistakes along the way (more on this later). The other two I am not going to bother with, Ramaswamy is here for entertainment, Haley will be given some false hope with the Iowa results.
As far as the Democrats go, they are foolishly sticking with Biden, however they could of done a lot worse (Sanders, Harris, or anyone else in the current administration, e.g. Buttigieg.) Newsome would have been a good bet, and not because of his policies and/or his performance/non performance in California. I think he would have been a good bet as he has two of the historically desired attributes of a president, well spoken, attractive and charismatic. He also has no ties to the current administration. At the end of the day, I think a democratic lamp post would beat Trump, which means I view all of the current administration as worse than a lamp post.
The independent list is interesting due to one candidate and one candidate only, Kennedy. I think he would have been a better choice than Biden even though he has some major flaws that would probably cost him in the end. He will however be the major spoiler in this election, and I would not be surprised if he did quite well in the popular vote ~15%. I think he would ultimately fail as he has one major skeleton in the closet (former heroine? Addict), his other stances which would be correctly/incorrectly be viewed as conspiracies (Assassination, Covid), and to top it off his speaking voice is a major negative.
Will Biden be the Democrat nominee? 80% sure. I think there is a chance he will pull out due to pressure, age, health, Hunter, and impeachment. The impeachment is interesting, and I personally think this is a huge mistake by the republican house leadership. Just leave him alone, he is his own worst enemy. His ratings are dire.
The impeachment process make zero sense from a tactical pov, and I think democrats would actually support it just to get rid of him.
- You remove him as a candidate if he is impeached before election.
- You allow Harris to become president if he is impeached after election (assuming he wins). Not sure if this is how it works? Does VP become president if president is impeached.
Will Trump be the Republican nominee? 99% yes.
What can stop him? At most one of the charges. Why wont it work? The trials that matter, wont be completed in time. Only chance is health (currently his health/energy is beyond good) or one of the other nominees exploding into action like a supernova.
Who will be Trumps VP? Kristi Noem. I think she is a perfect choice. She is insanely attractive, has run her state extremely well, and made some very popular decisions during Covid. Another choice could be Youngkin, however the recent elections in his state have knocked him back. There are some lunatics that have an outside chance, however they are in regard to policies, way too aligned with Trump. He needs someone different in some respects. I think Noem fits this, along with being a female, and attractive (have I mentioned how attractive she is? Well she is, if you donāt think so go create your own thread you weirdo). She would be over the top if she had a disability, was in a same sex relationship, identified as transgender or was an ethnic minority)
What happened to DeSantis? His stock was sky-high due to Covid policies, whether you agree with them or not. So what happened? IMO, he should have been more gracious while promoting himself in other states. It was too much Florida this, Florida that, and USA states want to be themselves and not Florida. He should have highlighted what he did without shoving Florida down peoples throats. The people he was talking to are generally intelligent enough to know where he was from.
He also spoke way too much about āwokeā. The only think people now hate more than āwokeā is being constantly reminded of āwokenessā (sorry). He and others (republicans) should re-brand this as āradical left racismā. In politics its irrelevant that the name you create accurately and honestly describes something, it just needs to be catchy enough for people to say, āYeah, I donāt want any of that shit!ā.
I have always agreed with the thought that independent voters decide elections. In this regard I think a lot will go to Kennedy, along with a fair number of registered democrats, and a lower number of republicans. The extreme left and right are always going to vote along party lines so are irrelevant, unless they are so uninterested in their nominee that they wont bother voting (Biden loses this, Trump clear winner). Independents vote in a more strategic manner and will vote along with what matters the most (imo the economy and border, in order). Abortion and gun control is not important from two angles, 1. Criminals, the mentally sick, donāt care about gun control, voters know this, donāt act surprised. Abortion is being handled by the States quite comfortably, there is no need for a federal open ended policy (e.g. no abortion under any circumstances, or free abortions till day of birth) The majority of people are not interested in complete extremism (meaning you can be extreme in some areas, and completely moderate in others).
At the end of the day, party fanatics will vote for the party or not vote, moderates will vote to keep the opponent from winning, favour their nominee or just wont vote. Independents will vote along the policies they hold most important, and that aligns with the nominees.
Who is the next US president? Trump and it wont be close as it stands. Will it be the end of the world? Grow up. Will he overturn the constitution and run for a third term? Grow up. You are all intelligent enough to think beyond Trump derangement syndrome, and yes that is a real thing.
On a side note, due to the elections, I believe there will be an extended war in the middle east. Maybe not invasion type, but most certainly significant attacks against Yemen AND Iran. The current attacks vs Yemen as not significant right now imo, so it would be an exponentially higher than it is now. Sorry for the bad news.
