US Election 2024

And so it starts, the lead-up to the US 2024 elections. I have no skin in this, imo its just a lot more interesting than other elections due to there being a set amount of years that a president can be in office. In Canada there can be several elections within a 4 year period, and I find this quite annoying and a manipulative way to stay in power for a while longer. Is UK the same?

The Iowa caucus has started today with Republicans starting the journey on who they see as the republican candidate for presidency. The clear favourite is Trump, followed by DeSantis, Haley and Ramaswamy. I don’t think anyone has a chance, however the best positioned would be DeSantis, and would be much closer if he didn’t make some major mistakes along the way (more on this later). The other two I am not going to bother with, Ramaswamy is here for entertainment, Haley will be given some false hope with the Iowa results.

As far as the Democrats go, they are foolishly sticking with Biden, however they could of done a lot worse (Sanders, Harris, or anyone else in the current administration, e.g. Buttigieg.) Newsome would have been a good bet, and not because of his policies and/or his performance/non performance in California. I think he would have been a good bet as he has two of the historically desired attributes of a president, well spoken, attractive and charismatic. He also has no ties to the current administration. At the end of the day, I think a democratic lamp post would beat Trump, which means I view all of the current administration as worse than a lamp post.

The independent list is interesting due to one candidate and one candidate only, Kennedy. I think he would have been a better choice than Biden even though he has some major flaws that would probably cost him in the end. He will however be the major spoiler in this election, and I would not be surprised if he did quite well in the popular vote ~15%. I think he would ultimately fail as he has one major skeleton in the closet (former heroine? Addict), his other stances which would be correctly/incorrectly be viewed as conspiracies (Assassination, Covid), and to top it off his speaking voice is a major negative.

Will Biden be the Democrat nominee? 80% sure. I think there is a chance he will pull out due to pressure, age, health, Hunter, and impeachment. The impeachment is interesting, and I personally think this is a huge mistake by the republican house leadership. Just leave him alone, he is his own worst enemy. His ratings are dire.
The impeachment process make zero sense from a tactical pov, and I think democrats would actually support it just to get rid of him.

  1. You remove him as a candidate if he is impeached before election.
  2. You allow Harris to become president if he is impeached after election (assuming he wins). Not sure if this is how it works? Does VP become president if president is impeached.

Will Trump be the Republican nominee? 99% yes.
What can stop him? At most one of the charges. Why wont it work? The trials that matter, wont be completed in time. Only chance is health (currently his health/energy is beyond good) or one of the other nominees exploding into action like a supernova.
Who will be Trumps VP? Kristi Noem. I think she is a perfect choice. She is insanely attractive, has run her state extremely well, and made some very popular decisions during Covid. Another choice could be Youngkin, however the recent elections in his state have knocked him back. There are some lunatics that have an outside chance, however they are in regard to policies, way too aligned with Trump. He needs someone different in some respects. I think Noem fits this, along with being a female, and attractive (have I mentioned how attractive she is? Well she is, if you don’t think so go create your own thread you weirdo). She would be over the top if she had a disability, was in a same sex relationship, identified as transgender or was an ethnic minority)

What happened to DeSantis? His stock was sky-high due to Covid policies, whether you agree with them or not. So what happened? IMO, he should have been more gracious while promoting himself in other states. It was too much Florida this, Florida that, and USA states want to be themselves and not Florida. He should have highlighted what he did without shoving Florida down peoples throats. The people he was talking to are generally intelligent enough to know where he was from.
He also spoke way too much about “woke”. The only think people now hate more than “woke” is being constantly reminded of “wokeness” (sorry). He and others (republicans) should re-brand this as ‘radical left racism’. In politics its irrelevant that the name you create accurately and honestly describes something, it just needs to be catchy enough for people to say, “Yeah, I don’t want any of that shit!”.

I have always agreed with the thought that independent voters decide elections. In this regard I think a lot will go to Kennedy, along with a fair number of registered democrats, and a lower number of republicans. The extreme left and right are always going to vote along party lines so are irrelevant, unless they are so uninterested in their nominee that they wont bother voting (Biden loses this, Trump clear winner). Independents vote in a more strategic manner and will vote along with what matters the most (imo the economy and border, in order). Abortion and gun control is not important from two angles, 1. Criminals, the mentally sick, don’t care about gun control, voters know this, don’t act surprised. Abortion is being handled by the States quite comfortably, there is no need for a federal open ended policy (e.g. no abortion under any circumstances, or free abortions till day of birth) The majority of people are not interested in complete extremism (meaning you can be extreme in some areas, and completely moderate in others).
At the end of the day, party fanatics will vote for the party or not vote, moderates will vote to keep the opponent from winning, favour their nominee or just wont vote. Independents will vote along the policies they hold most important, and that aligns with the nominees.

Who is the next US president? Trump and it wont be close as it stands. Will it be the end of the world? Grow up. Will he overturn the constitution and run for a third term? Grow up. You are all intelligent enough to think beyond Trump derangement syndrome, and yes that is a real thing.

On a side note, due to the elections, I believe there will be an extended war in the middle east. Maybe not invasion type, but most certainly significant attacks against Yemen AND Iran. The current attacks vs Yemen as not significant right now imo, so it would be an exponentially higher than it is now. Sorry for the bad news.

Don’t we already have a US Politics thread? :thinking:

Anyway: Trump will win, and the world will be even more fucked than it already is.

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Yeah saw that (US Politics thread), I just think this particular event is more suited to a new thread.

Why? It’s not like past elections have necessitated their own threads. It’s already being discussed plenty over there anyway.

Imo it will get lost, I don’t mind though if a mod wants to move it. It’s not 100% relevant to me what was done in past, or else nothing would change :person_shrugging:

My prediction is he isn’t enough ahead to win, I predict a similar EC to last time out points wise.

I’m curious about the debates, and if they will happen. I doubt the democrats want Biden to debate, and I would guess that the Republicans hope that Trump dials it back. because he is his worst enemy. I cant imagine a US election without a debate. I think covid helped Biden alot last election’s debates (limited debates) and Trump also screwed himself by constantly interrupting.

Trump ran away with Iowa caucus, I think it’s game over for Republican nomination even taking into account that Ted Cruz won the 2016, and that didn’t mean anything. If Haley doesn’t beat Desantis in Iowa, then she might as well drop out.

Wow, Ramaswamy dropped out. Good decision, just surprised he did at this point.

If Trump wins, does his previous tenure count in the maximum term meaning he can only do max one more term?

Yes, although no president has actually been removed via impeachment. The nearest was Nixon who resigned and was replaced by his VP Gerald Ford (who himself had replaced the elected VP Agnew as he was under investigation for corruption).

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This thread is triggering my ocd.

Cog summed it up very succinctly above.

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Can only do one more.

The candidates who remain in the running for the Republican nominee are:

  • Former President Donald Trump
  • Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis
  • Former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley
  • Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson (Why?)
  • Texas business executive and pastor Ryan Binkley (Why?)

From a tactical pov, democrats should let Trump win, then make sure all charges against him are dropped, then get rid of Biden and Harris. A guaranteed win for another democrat president.

Responding here at that seems to be the breakdown now - here for specific election stuff and the older thread for more US general politics…

It’s arguably more relevant this year than it has been for many cycles, if not for the normal reasons but for what the nature of Trump’s win there says about how the party has shifted since his last time there in 2016.

Iowa has a reputation for being a proving ground for candidates. The fact that it comes first means candidates get to spend more time there, and in turn the electorate has come to expect that of them, with a reputation for taking their responsibility very seriously for thoroughly vetting candidates. If the candidate doesn’t show up and do the work Iowa wont pick them, but by being so present it exposes weaknesses of a campaign (see Kamala 4 years ago) or of the candidate themselves (see DeSantis). The problem is that on the GOP side the state has increasingly been driven by reactionary evangelicals politics meaning their choice has also increasingly become less predictive. Their choice has not only failed to predict the winner since Bush in 2000, but in that time their choice has also been a wacko with no real hope (Huckerbee in 08, Santorum in 12, Cruz 16).

So why is it relevant this time around? Trump didn’t show up. He didn’t do the work and still won with historically big margins. Just as important, this evangelical vote is a portion of the electorate who were most resistant to Trump in 2016. They eventually came around and by the end of his first term, driven by Q Anon type adherence, were his strongest supporters. Now they have roundly dismissed months of campaigning by other candidates to overwhelmingly support a guy who hasn’t even participated in the process. Its a really bright marker for how Trump 2024 is not the same thing as Trump 2016.

I think it’s also relevant to point out though that this is not a normal election cycle. Trump’s campaign is far closer to his incumbent 2020 campaign than his one in 2016 where he was in a contested nomination. If that were really the case then for all of the talk of this historically big margin he won by, it’s actually an indication of a big softness in his support in the party that a state like Iowa could still find a way to cast nearly 50% of their votes for someone other the presumed nominee.

I think only a mug makes predictions based on this, but I think it still tells us some really interesting and important things about what, who and how big his base of support is within his party

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Trump belongs behind bars, not in the Oval Office. He’s a fucking menace.

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That’s one of the more polite words I would use to describe Trump.

Fascist fuckwit being two others.

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How?

How?

How?

How?

This is all just fantasy completely disconnected from how elections and government works

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The linked piece is illustrates this nicely
https://x.com/mckaycoppins/status/1746897120735444997?s=20

The piece itself is getting a ton of blow back as people seem to be misinterpreting the point of it. American politic coverage is always trying to understand what has happened by framing it in the terms of recent elections, and his point is we failed to understand what was motivating Trump voters in 2016 and paid a price, and we’re falling into the same trap now by continuing to view Trump 2024 as the same thing as 2016.

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I always thought I might be a mug, thanks for confirming. Mug as in muggle right?