For a debate for sure, for the actual people voting I don’t agree. As already indicated in this thread, some people care about crime, others don’t care about immigration, so bad immigration data is unlikely to sway a vote. On the other hand if you live in Texas, close to the border, then yes is will play a part, except it wont really as it’s extremely unlikely Texas will flip even if the border was under control. This imo supports my theory that local data is more relevant than national data, in certain circumstances, and in swing states.
I don’t think the debate about specific data by itself will sway voters one way or another. People listening to the debate have already made up their minds with regards to crime data, inflation data, etc. If they think inflation is bad, a debate has no chance of changing their minds.
I think the only useful thing to come out of the debate is Biden’s performance. If he does moderately well, it will be an enormous boost, if he does poorly it will be the final straw. Trump is Trump, they know what to expect, mental and physical health is a concern just nowhere near as much as Bidens mental and physical health.
The key for the debate is for Trump to say nothing more outrageous than normal, and Biden not to fall, stay silent for 3+ seconds, mumble incoherently for longer than a sentence. Obviously the opposite is true for both candidates, however this is not the concern going into the debate.
If its Biden (or close) the one from the state of the union, then he will be fine.
This is my assumption. I think they should change immigration issue to “illegal immigration”, which I think is more of an accurate description of the issue at hand. Both parties allow a lot of people into the country through legal immigration.
You are conflating different issues. I am not debating how people will vote, or what they will tell themselves about why, only what objective reality is. Both crime and the economy are objectively at a place where attempts to argue they are a black mark against the incumbent should be laughed off. Prioritizing these issues and favouring the other guy is based on a version of the world that doesnt exist, but I accept there will be many millions of these people.
I accept the economy is an electoral concern for Biden because people repeatedly say it is. Likewise with crime. However, no one should accept the data on these two things indicate any actual negative mark against the president. One can easily reconcile these things by understanding that people are complex often confused creatures with a tremendous capacity for self-deception and cognitive dissonance (they’re fuckwits)
Like I said, I think you are granting far too much grace to the MAGA movement to take their position as this, which requires ignoring the moves made in Trump’s first term and what his team are saying about their plans for a second term.
It is worth pointing out though that this disconnect between what people think is happening with crime vs what is actually happening isnt new - people have been reporting a belief of increasing crime throughout the last 20 years of actual decreases https://x.com/senategabe/status/1803106727094849863
My hot take - this is a result of the increasing rural vs urban divide in politics where the GOP frame urban centers as hell holes and most of main stream media just accepting their framing as legitimate which then trickles down to voting normies who believe it.
That is just one example of the Trump administration (often led by Miller) trying to reshape what even legal immigration (including asylum) looks like (much smaller, and white)
I’m at Jiffy Lube getting an oil change for my car. The TV in the waiting area had Biden on announcing measures to protect undocumented immigrants (feels like the first good thing he’s done in ages). Then he seemingly froze while speaking…fortunately it was just the tv. This must be where Fox gets its coverage.
When I first visited the US in the eighties people in Florida told me not to visit New York City because I would be taken to the top of a skyscraper and thrown off if I didn’t hand over my money.
I took my life in my hands and went anyway. Strangely enough I was able to walk around without looking out for random falling bodies.
A good friend of mine works downtown in Portland, the site of big and extended leftist protests in summer 2020. His family (avid Fox and OAN watchers) were utterly convinced the city had been razed to the ground and it was a no go area, and nothing about the fact that he went there every day for work could convince them otherwise.
Yes! I was talking about the overblown focus on the ‘crisis at the border’ as I don’t see any of that here where I live.
The context in which I wrote my post seemed to be a call for eye witness testimony from within America, so I was talking about what I see and experience.
My take on that is everyone is entitled to have their say, especially with America being such an influential global player. Whether people in other countries especially like America or not, they are allowed to share their view and not be dismissed with, ‘well you don’t live here.’
I had always thought of us politics as a mockery as clowns trying to run a country. But gun control is something that should be a big issue for any US elections. Actually just help me understand, for any president to say ban guns, does he only need the Senate or it has to pass through house, senate etc at all levels? Is that the reason why even A democrate government would find obstacles to change any laws to guns as they don’t control everything?