I think it is also quite possible that Iran believes the US could respond to this by trying to get negotiations restarted (quite possibly after 3-4 days of air strikes). Iran must know they will not get anything close to their demands, but want some form of concessions. They are obviously entirely willing to see the full resumption of hostilities, but will now have learned that the US really doesn’t. Either pathway (full war or bombing plus negotiations) is politically damaging to Trump and economically damaging to the US (along with most of the rest of the world).
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Yes, they likely ideally want negotiations to continue, since they can ride out the blockade. But they openly flirt with resumption of warfare in a manner that is quite provocative for Trump and which may force it in days or a couple of weeks.
For now I think Trump, since the US really want out of the war, will give them some more time before pulling the trigger, but if it continues to go no where, I see no choice but admitting defeat or trying to get escalation dominance by restarting a limited bombing campaign. Their problem is of course that Iran knows that the bombing campaign must end sooner rather than later and do not take civilian pain into the consideration.
I agree completely with your analysis.
We are moving towards a likely US strategic defeat, but I think the US will escalate once more before admitting defeat in an attempt to change the trajectory, since current strategy is not working.
This is certainly what anyone involved in negotiations would call an Ambit claim,and negotiate from there,after all Trump started this war and has offered fuck all, just wants total surrender, with a new younger leader, expecting Iran to roll over is rubbish.
I know very well how ambit claims work..quite well, usually.
Meantime the mid terms grow ever closer!
US has long ago moved away from those idiotic conditions about unconditional surrender and it’s primarily now about restricting Iran’s nuclear program and ballistic missile program, as far as I understand.
https://www.axios.com/2026/05/06/iran-us-deal-one-page-memo
Anyway, I am so happy (and tired) right now, having just handed in the paper I’ve been working on for a week and it’s 07 in the morning here. Feels good to get that done. Time for a cup of coffee for the lovely taste of it, and a peek out on the snowy spring landscape (weather became confused tonight as I was writing, King Winter for some strange reason pushed away the spring maiden, but he has mostly been chased away by the rays of the morning sun now thankfully).
Then I am going to sleep for 4-5 hours. Tomorrow, I can look forward to Root Filling at the dentist, so fuck tomorrow.
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Robert Kagen wrote this yesterday. It’s worth reading.
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That could serve you well, at least for now. 
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Eating cold dinner from last night now, but yeah. Not the worst idea. But frankly I don’t think I need it to sleep a bit.
Pakistan emerges as a self-interested mediator in the Iran conflict
Islamabad has established itself as an unexpected intermediary between Washington and Tehran, deftly employing the art of flattery to win over Donald Trump while leveraging discreet channels with the Islamic Republic to try and resolve the Strait of Hormuz crisis.
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I wish someone could have informed him about the Syrian war
https://x.com/AmichaiStein1/status/2053865775069290521
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Fucking stupid. An Ohio doesn’t need to be anywhere near there to be a deterrant and its not like Iranian leadership just woke up the other day and said, ‘Holy fuckballs, the US has ballistic missile submarines with intercontinental range!’
Performative nonsense that’s being played out to his own fucktard supporters via the media.
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Absolutely. We understand that. But it’s for domestic propaganda to look “tough”. It’s as if the US has noticed what Kreml says, and thinks “ah, seems to be working well, let’s try some implausible nuclear sabre rattling too”.
I mean, Russia just fired SATAN 2, US cannot be any worse, it seems. Sigh, sigh.
I suppose it’s also to “frighten” the IRGC, but that’s a fucking daft attempt at that, I note.
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Idiots could have done a piece with an Ohio surfaced in Chesapeake Bay saying, ‘hey, we can shoot those guys from way over here’. Far more badass.
I know, I know. They have to dumb it down in order for it to make sense to whoever it is they trying to make it make sense to.
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Behind paywall 
I posted it from twitter, and it was a Gift article there, so I read it for free 
I apologice for my mistake, I did not know it was a bad link. Thanks for letting me know. I can try to find the article later.
But even so, you should be able to read 10 Atlantic articles per month for free. But maybe you are an avid reader ?
Having got screwed thrice from practically the same set of people, I guess Iran thinks it’s wise to have a security deposit prior to another 'negotiation '.
A ceasefire with Trump’s America isn’t worth anything, any more than any other agreement with America is now. It is at best a temporary transaction which now Trump wants in order to extricate himself from the situation he blundered into. Iran is naming their price for that transaction.
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Exactly. Iran wants something tangible first before they have a 'ceasefire ’ which will probably last a few months.
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War isn’t funny, but this is so tragicomic
https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2054276159781871847
A more honest name attribution would be “Operation Please God, Let This Work!”
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