One problem for the cynical manipulative man, Netanyahu, is also the following: He has even more extreme forces than himself (far more) inside his government and also without but supportive of it, and he is absolutely forced to keep them oboard to some degree. Therefore, the current israeli government, such as it is, has no political choice other than to choose between self-immolating and standing up to the USA.
They will choose the latter, I think, but will seek to compromise and deescalate tensions with the US. That’s not going to be easy for them. Of course, Hezbollah also will make it more difficult for them by continuing to fire on IDF troops in Lebanon, forcing Israel to respond. And israelis expect very strong responses, but that goes counter to US will. Problem, problem; what do to ?
Hehe.
(There are also obvious potential negatives here for both Lebanese and palestinians, so not just positives; but imo this is the only geopolitical silver lining from the Iran war on a macro-scale)
I am curious how Trump will respond to this (spin) and I am very much looking forward to his phone call to Jerusalem and the whining in the Israeli media sphere, after details of that conversation is leaked.
Another silver-lining is that this is (or should be) very humiliating for Trump and his cult. Or would be, if they had shame, but.
Finally, the Israeli government is maneuvering in difficult waters. And the hilarious bit is that it is for reasons that normally would be negotiable, had it not been for the fact that Trump is an authoritarian who cares not so much at all, for the interests of his allies.
So to all the Israelis who cheered the war on, thinking that finally, now we can solve the critical Iran problem once and for all and a new era will dawn. You now get a far milder treatment than us Europeans, but still you get some of it. Hehe. You go war with the president you have, not the one you want, I note.
The background is the tit for tat between Hezbollah and Israel in recent days, where yesterday 4 IDF soldiers were killed and etc.
Israel’s response was to push to Nabitiyeh, where outside it, in the mountainrange, is a well known underground Hezbollah stronghold.
Israel was trying to assault it yesterday (ceasefire came way too early for Israel, they had a lot of Hezbollah targets that they wanted to vacate and take control of; but Trump is, hahah, Trump and does not care grins). https://x.com/LizHurra/status/2068072289036333488
The problems Israel now face could not have happened to a nicer government. Israel is used to being able to respond to attacks with overwhelming force and they had a real clever little limited ground invasion going on. They are in deep shit, not militarily obviously, but politically (to maneuver Trump’s whims) and I am ALL here for it.
I mean, everyone here know that I think Hezbollah is an obvious problem and that the threat of war will never go away as long as it is Iran’s proxy (It was after all, Hezbollah that started this and fucked over Lebanon); but really, Israel’s behaviour in Gaza and the West Bank, it’s insane entitlement and arrogance, as well as it’s cruel and inhumane policies.
They even bombed Syria and occupied it after Assad fell, when the new islamist government who absolutely wanted NO problems with Israel, reached out their hand and almost begged them for a new fresh dawn with peaceful relations. What was Israel’s response ? Massive bombing of munition storages in Syria and occupation, support of current Druze insurgency, because “Syria under Islamist rule would later likely become a threat” (I believe that is a direct citation from the public Israeli statement from back then, although I won’t bother to trawl).
I don’t believe in Karma, but this political problem couldn’t have happened to a more deserving bunch of assholes.
Not that I otherwise want Hezbollah to “win”, obviously. But the Fortress Mentality Boys deserves a humiliation. Maybe they will get slightly less arrogant in their foreign policy. That would be fucking nice (I don’t expect much though).
