We agree that the attacks were logical and predictable when under attack by the US and Israel in potential regime change war. Now they are not, they have 0 excuse. This is civilian traffic. One must respond to such attacks or they establish a new norm. That norm is critical to avoid surely ?
For me, denying the IRGC into creating this norm, is rather important and takes priority.
What the hell does ‘acceptable’ mean in this context? An undeclared war, significant civilian deprivation, civilians targeted on both sides, you name it. Iran doesn’t really have any options other than to press the big red button labeled ‘Hormuz - Global Oil Market’. With the US showing up to the negotiating table trying to unwind the framework agreement so Trump can look good for the midterm elections, all Iran can do is make sure the pressure remains. If they just trade shots at military targets, Iran loses. It is really that simple.
A civilian target is only ever justified if it is critical for the war effort. Granted, that does not apply to this conflict as everyone breaks all laws, particularly the attackers in launching it. Fair enough.
But neutral shipping when no longer under threat, Arminius ?
Everyone, myself included, has pretty much hand waived everything Iran has done during the war, because it was understandable. But there is no active war. Different scenario then.
The Iranian conditions included the ceasefire extending to Lebanon, and it simply hasn’t. The US is actively reneging on the requirement to deliver Israeli compliance with the initial terms. Just look at the statements made by Trump and Vance as recently as Thursday - in what way is Iran no longer under threat?
Iran launched an attack on a ship (and then another) in order to underscore the fact that reopening navigation was a quid pro quo. They could simply have sunk 4-5 stationary tankers if they wished to return to the shooting war. Both parties were stepping up the escalation ladder.
Well, there needs to be proportional military retaliation after every single attack on a ship; as did happen now recently. That has an effect and will more likely than not alter Iranian calculus as they are quite desperate to get out from fighting to rebuilding.
Attacking 3d parties, is something i can only ever forgive if you fight an existential war, like Iran did. Normalising and allowing the IRGC to succeed in their Hormuz gambit, it would be a massive mistake for the entire world
Just game it out - you are in Iran’s position. The US is walking away from preconditions to a ceasefire in a war they started. Your military is helpless versus the direct threat, and the US is attempting to once again dictate terms for a victory it has not won. What do you do?
If I was Iran I would do everything I could get away with. Doesn’t mean it is acceptable. And I am suggesting that it is very important that they are not allowed to get away with it.
Jaja, poor Lebanon. Fucked as always. By successfully inserting itself into Lebanese politics, by obliterating what little (and it was little) sovreignty it had left), Lebanon is now beholden to israel, US, Hezbollah and Iran; due to Hezbollah’s entry into the war on the command of the IRGC. Great, great.
What a shit show.
For me the problem is it’s just a ceasefire. Which neither side is respecting. That has no controlling entity.
The agreement designated that Iran make the arrangements for the strait of Hormuz. If a ship violates those arrangements then they are breaking the ‘ceasefire’. It doesn’t matter what type of boat it is.
Honestly though I don’t know what to think. It’s just a big mess created by nasty idiots.
The only good thing that’s come out of it is for a while it’s held Trump back from delivering ‘his’ justice elsewhere, like Cuba.
They attacked the ship to exert pressure on the USA, Flobbs.
That is not self defence, at least not when not at active war.
Anyway, the terms of this ceasefire was always impossibly stupid, so no surprise that everything is fucked up, I suppose.
But if everytime the IRGC is unhappy, they attack a ship, well, it is rather important to create conditions so that it doesn’t become a norm. Because the IRGC will seldom be happy in the coming years.
Anyway. I am out, for now. It just frustrates me that it has become seemingly acceptable for Iran to attack civilian neutral shipping outside existential war. The war logic is there, but it opens up a can of worms if the threshold for attacking civilian economical target is so low. There are a lot of things that makes sense to do in war if it is unrestricted.
This is the crux of it,as a former seafarer I would take violent exception to"hey we are going here, tough cheese if we get shot at" known as the gung ho approach.
Sure few seafarers would think it this is a great idea.
I am also mindful of who started this fucking war, and it has orange hair, and I would guess the guy who winds him up knows something.
Trump is in a bind now, he doesn’t want this to end, but the mid terms suggest he needs to,PDQ,or he is a lame duck.
He has just threatened to obliterate Iran for the ??? time, after all.
I ran have hit 4 tankers today in the Straits. Tankers that were following a route on the Oman side and under US escort.
Probably means that the leadership of the IRGC itself is fragmented.
We’ve having local commanders acting on their whims with their being no oversight from the central leadership.
The central Iranian government will ofcourse look to maintain a unified stance. Any admission that these were conducted by local IRGC commanders without the sanction of the heads will make the central government look extremely weak. And that’s something a government which is at war for its existence can ill afford to do so.
That’s by design, not a flaw. They have an intentionally fragmented leadership structure that allows for autonomy.
It’s basically a response to the fact that US/Israel can take out their leadership at will.
Not for me. It’s just plain defiance of tankers using a navigation channel in Oman waters and not paying tolls for using the traditional one.
Plus they’re demonstrating that the largest military in the world can’t protect ships there.
Trump saying the peace deal is over. Oil price now up over 5% in the day, though down from the initial spike
I watched the press conference with Trump and Zelensky, as it was sent directly by Norwegian NRK. I had the impression that the studio host was looking at me with a “I am so sorry you had to see that” apology when the conferance was over it went back to news studio. Because holy shit !
Ready for another short next week?
Another scam from Donald and co. This is just so predictable. Yet again, some people will make a lot of dosh with oil prices going yo-yo.