It is interesting to see that the market is moving, but not swinging as violently as it was three months ago. I think traders are becoming accustomed to the idea that there will be other movements before the settlement date, so are taking various hedging positions rather than moving entire portfolios on today’s news.
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I’ve heard they’ve just walked away. Until we get to the critical point where oil reserves are gone (if we get there).
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Yeah, I think the liquidity traders like Mercuria etc have largely walked away, and trading now is driven by entities wanting to hedge operational risk by locking in a known price. At some point, that will stop working, because you need those liquidity traders on the other side of the deal sometimes, when there is no one actually trying to hedge their own sale risk.
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Looks like they have applied what Hamas and Hezbollah have done. That’s the frightening part about IRGC.
https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2075045100736974989
https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2075045102490108077
Iran is fast losing what goodwill it has mustered.
Neither Israel and US are to be trusted ofcourse but Iran risks losing big with countries which are friendly with it by continuing to target civilian vessels. Not just countries like India or China which have trade relations with them, but also other countries which really do need Hormuz to be open.
When the gas/oil reserves go to critical state for most other countries , you’ll find more countries willing to accept more punitive actions against Iran.
…says the only indisputably crazy person involved. 
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Iran loses when the Straits of Hormuz are open, it is as simple as that. The MOU had preconditions that the US has been attempting to walk back (release of funds, terms of transit for the Straits), though the US says it has always had a different interpretation. In the subsequent negotiations, the US has been taking a hard line in order to pander to the Republican base, so I don’t see that Iran has a great deal of choice but to put Hormuz back on the table.
International good will has contributed precisely nothing to their bargaining position.
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And back again to the shitshow.
None of the parties can be trusted at this point.
Iran’s offer to manage the Straits at $1M per tanker transiting is suddenly looking fairly reasonable versus a 20% VAT
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Republicans in Congress will be overjoyed on hearing that.
The truly moronic thing is that the US position that Iran cannot apply a (more reasonable) toll to the Straits of Hormuz has no basis in principle if the US is claiming the right to do so.
If markets really believe this, the price of oil should jump about 20%
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The way he is going he is going to cause a bigger war. Essentially the grift now moves to encompass the Straits of Hormuz, but he’s not just ripping off investors and Americans this time, and global trade will be affected. It’s a 20% hit, which is not insignificant.
Mind you, his MO is to grandstand, state the policy, and then there is plenty of previous to say he won’t follow through long term.
Of course he won’t follow through long term. He probably won’t follow through until the weekend. But Iran will still be there, and their actions to control the Straits will have been legitimized.
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https://x.com/NotWoofers/status/2076680664607252873
https://x.com/FaytuksNetwork/status/2076680236322718037
It’s a military technologically interesting event and is the first such Ukrainian adopted naval drone used in combat outside the confinements (such as they are) Russo-Ukrainian War.
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https://x.com/ianbremmer/status/2076680444200763804
Political Life is fucking difficult for Rubio
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The Orange Mussolini has stated that the oil from Venezuela has already paid for the Iran war ten times over… now the ploy of charging a 20% tariff, he will probably state he has paid for the war 100 times over… The world is rocking on its axis ready to come apart with this guy at the helm.
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