It is interesting to see that the market is moving, but not swinging as violently as it was three months ago. I think traders are becoming accustomed to the idea that there will be other movements before the settlement date, so are taking various hedging positions rather than moving entire portfolios on today’s news.
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I’ve heard they’ve just walked away. Until we get to the critical point where oil reserves are gone (if we get there).
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Yeah, I think the liquidity traders like Mercuria etc have largely walked away, and trading now is driven by entities wanting to hedge operational risk by locking in a known price. At some point, that will stop working, because you need those liquidity traders on the other side of the deal sometimes, when there is no one actually trying to hedge their own sale risk.
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Looks like they have applied what Hamas and Hezbollah have done. That’s the frightening part about IRGC.
https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2075045100736974989
https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2075045102490108077
Iran is fast losing what goodwill it has mustered.
Neither Israel and US are to be trusted ofcourse but Iran risks losing big with countries which are friendly with it by continuing to target civilian vessels. Not just countries like India or China which have trade relations with them, but also other countries which really do need Hormuz to be open.
When the gas/oil reserves go to critical state for most other countries , you’ll find more countries willing to accept more punitive actions against Iran.
…says the only indisputably crazy person involved. 
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Iran loses when the Straits of Hormuz are open, it is as simple as that. The MOU had preconditions that the US has been attempting to walk back (release of funds, terms of transit for the Straits), though the US says it has always had a different interpretation. In the subsequent negotiations, the US has been taking a hard line in order to pander to the Republican base, so I don’t see that Iran has a great deal of choice but to put Hormuz back on the table.
International good will has contributed precisely nothing to their bargaining position.
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And back again to the shitshow.
None of the parties can be trusted at this point.