Iranian victory, by now, in my opinion, is the survival of the Islamic Republic (imo, hardly a victory for Iranians, but that is besides the point) and successfully instilling deterrance against future adventures.
You and I differ only as to how much pain, diplomatic damage and political humiliation they must inflict to instill this kind of deterrance.
I worry, Iranian decision makers do not see things are clear cut in terms of rationality as you. They are very aware that this war is an existential one (for the regime) and I think their main priority is ensuring that there will not be another such existential type war in 10 + years. A cease fire now might do that, but I fear the iranians are unwilling to count on US having not cowboys in charge 10 years from now. Face and propaganda also important, particularly in “Resistance Shia” culture (which counts more than some thinks even at this level).
So in effect, I think Iranian victory is that Iran is industrially and eonomically a husk, militarily severely degraded but alive; but having inflicted a humiliating strategic defeat on the US. Burning their fingers etc.
Obviously, US can defeat Iran, but this isn’t a normal war plan and I am confident that Iran is able to read Trump well enough to know that he is not about to invade .
Edit: If Iran keeps it’s HEU, it would be bonkers and also a count, but I don’t think that can happen as it would be security politically insane by the US.
Edit 2: But of course, I am speculating like everyone else, maybe Iran will let Trump have victory already. But not so sure…
Another related point, is the problem of national tales, national myths, tales of victory . These are not always based on fact.
Even though we can say that US didn’t reach all its War Goals or even the most important ones and created and economic disaster and inflicted much diplomatic damage on itself, as long as GOP is able to built the myth of victory in a large segment of the US population, then it is likely that such a myth can be endure for quite a while. It doesn’t have to be entirely factual really.
Likely, since Iran is itself an absolute Master of such invented bullshit (literally what it does in the ME), they probably take it into account, even though western states are different.
Edit: please reply in the Climate Change thread and please don’t think it’s a slight on you. Genuine engagement to see what everyone thinks on where we’re headed and by when we hit the wall.
I think they are to some degree wasting their efforts hitting Israel. They are doing so for essentially narrative reasons, and cannot have any real hope of inflicting significant economic or military damage. Understandable enough that Iran would want to force some discomfort on Israel, but as a target it is bristling with air defences and at that range the weapons required are both more expensive and more vulnerable to interception. Target acquisition is a challenge. When they hit, it makes headlines, but Israel can absorb hundreds of hits like that without being meaningfully deterred.
By contrast, Iran can exert enormous pressure in the region by targeting the Gulf states, and especially by targeting the Straits of Hormuz. The Straits are effectively 10km wide at their narrowest points (30 km of sea, but large sections have areas of less than 25 meters depth) with two channels (E and W) really making tankers an easy target. A fiber-guided drone can hit them from the shore.
This is probably a USN fever dream right now. Complete fuckwits in the WH and a Fox News host from the Army Reserve as SecDef, pushing them into a potentially epoch-changing conflict where all their best toys are no good anymore. They have just watched the Russian Black Sea fleet lose against an enemy with no navy to speak of, in much more favourable operational circumstances and not needing to worry about escort duty. Despite years of efforts, they have not been able to really shut down the Houthis in a somewhat similar situation, even though there is no meaningful threat from land.
Forcing the US into that conflict will be far more effective deterrence.
That would be stupid, as they have no such capacity.
Most of their missiles are in range of the gulf states and the near abroad, only a few are long range and those are far less precise.
That is why the Iranians have not focused on Israel, which was a lesson they learned after the 12 Days War. Israel is not a Decisive Point of Centre of Gravity for the US as Israeli war resilience is very bloody high indeed. The US and the global economy is.
It’s been amusing to read about this and Trump’s “surprised” response and whining about it (because the only way he can escalate is by ordering carpet bombing or using tactical nuclear weapons, or actually invade).
is a disaster for us all, but it was absolutely something everyone knew Iran would try to do. White House is surprised though, as are maybe those who think Iran is looking for a ceasefire tomorrow or in the coming days.
Mine laying started today, even if the US bombs a lot of these little boats (Iran has many more such speedboats).
Shit show ongoing. You don’t need to lay a lot of mines, just enought to make shipping de facto impossible.
Narrow channels,the ships must use them,if Iran is sowing mines,the straits will be relatively easily closed and will be for a while,mines seem to have a long shelf life .
It’s not the same political problem and Iranian retaliation has caused issues, which is probably mentioned a fair few times above.
Not sure what you think Norway should do more than it has done really. Can you clarify ?
If you think for a second that we will risk sacrifice Ukraine by creating a massive diplomatic ruckus with the United States of America, which we are totally reliant on to supply Ukraine, then I don’t know what you are thinking.
We are actually one of the few countries that have stated clearly that we are against this, view the war to be illegal and that we do not support it in any form or way. If this is not enough for you, then I don’t know what would be. No fucking way will we risk critical support for Ukraine (we buy weapons from the US and give them to Ukraine) for the Islamic Republic, which we otherwise loathe and would ideally like to see fall (but not like this).
The Islamic Republic isn’t Denmark. We will not spend as much politcal capital on the Islamic Republic as we would for a friendly democratic state (true for everyone). And with Denmark, everyone was on our side, now we stand with Spain and only a few others, a country that has otherwise been problematic the last few years in European security politics. It is already an uncomfortable position. You want us to go further for the murderous Islamic Republic ?
This isn’t a game of scoring “kindness points”, Ifhtikar. Standing up to the US more agressively, has real consequences and I would have thought you by now understood how important it is for us to stave off a Russian victory. We only have so much political capital to spend. Trump does not like us, Israel hates us. We will not endanger our National Security for the Islamic Republic.
Anyway, if people were half as interested in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as this shit show, Russia would have been defeated long ago and European freedom to actually navigate, would have looked entirely different. That people don’t get that, is alarming. It is because of the fact that we have been unable to stave off Russia successfully that we are in this political trap in the first place. Impossible to get out of before the Russo-Ukrainian War ends. To me this is obvious, I also think it should be obvious to more people. If the Russian invasion was over, Europe’s response to Trump launching illegal and insane adventures would be much, much harsher. But it is not over.
Fact is, after 12 days of extremely high intensity war, only a very few thousand, mostly security personnel, Iranians are dead. On the battlefields of Ukraine, the numbers are rather higher. The destruction too, rather far higher. And this is with the US throwing an enormous number of air assets at it (such intensity, unsustainable for long). Iran doesn’t have a demographic disaster, Ukraine does.
Some of you may think the world is ending because of the ME shitshow, but for us in northern Europe it is alarming, but hardly as bad as what we already have in Europe.
This Iran war will be over far sooner anyway, because of petrolium.
Agressive response to US, de facto means we are willing to risk supplies to Ukraine. We are obviously not willing to do that, as that would be bat-shit insane and suicidal.
, and Norway 
to have a robust position like they had regarding the Gaza Genocide.