War in Iran : Trump's latest misadventure

I saw a clip of a journalist asking the Finland president that they should offer to help the US on the condition that the US help Ukraine.

I’ll see if I can find it.

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I’ve been literally saying from long before this war started, that to enforce a surrender of Iran, you actually have to invade and occupy the country, just like with any other country.

Why is it that these halfwits thinks that regime change can be done without military occupation and control of the Iranian civil society (providing security) by the occupational power. It is fucking basic logic of warfare. No one ever “surrenders unconditionally” without being forced to do so. No one.

If you want to dictate terms to the degree the US wants to, invasion is the only logical path. But famously, the US is not at all keen on that, so it is a moot point. It is essentially why Iran can fight on and not even considering surrender, since there is after all no CREDIBLE threat of invasion. Maybe they would actually have surrendered had the US placed 350 000 -400 000 ground troops around Iran ready to invade, but we will never know that, since the US isn’t going to do it !!!

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It appears the plan is to seize an enclave around Bandar Abbas, establishing a perimeter to control the north shore of the Straits. Somehow, somewhere in the US Administration, someone has convinced themselves that an international mission could then be established to maintain that occupation. This appears variously to be the United Nations, NATO, or some sort of coalition involving Asia-Pacific partners, or some combination thereof.

One of the obvious problems is that to control the relevant shoreline, the enclave would need to be about a 300km long crescent probably 20 km or thicker. The size of the forces committed would be nowhere near the numbers necessary for a sustained offensive operation, but significant nonetheless. Those forces would of course become a ready target for other forms of asymmetric warfare.

However, the most obvious problem is that this is an exit plan for Trump and the US. The occupation forces would be there indefinitely.

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He was schooled at the University of Whitches and Whizards but then dropped out because he always missed writing the “h” in his homework. :wink:

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So much for the ceasefire then

Personally, I don’t understand why anyone thought there would be a cease fire in the first place. It’s a war, a ceasefire serves the interest of no one except maybe Trump. No reason for Iran to agree to that at all. American arrogance to assume they have the key to end this war at the time of their choosing. Unless they invade Iran with an army that can successfully take control of all the urban areas and oversee regime change or surrender, they need Iran to agree that stopping the war is favorable for Iran. And those concerns (such as limiting destruction and own losses) will be measured up against how much pain they can still inflict on America and the entire world and so what deterrence they can therefore instill against future attacks.

I find this idea that Iran will agree to just stop fire for unclear reasons just because the US wants to stop firing, rather absurd. Iran has a clear strategy to win the war and it involves a hell of a lot of economic and human sacrifice. We are not there yet, not everyone agrees that launching the war was a mistake. Iran wants everyone to think it was a mistake.

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Fars News

Yeah. The Taco people are going to probably look quite naive in the end, I suspect.

The Taco at this point is strictly the 5 days of not targeting energy infrastructure

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Good luck to all those glittering cities on the other side of the pond. You deserve it. :man_facepalming::sob:

just a quick recap if you could confirm my take home is about right please @Magnus

the Don announces this morning that the war/operation will cease due to favorable talks - probably this is just to manipulate the markets, it just needed to do its job for a short time

Iran says no talks have taken place

Isreal ‘be like WTF?’ were pushing on regardless

Merica still sending troups

things still going bang everywhere

so basically Don just used his position to manipulate the markets for a short term gain?

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Yeah, and you can bet a bunch of his mates just made a few million.

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More or less. You need some salt for the things we cannot know, but it’s what it looks like. A calm the market attempt of a pause and Trump probably never wanted to “obliterate” the Iranian electrical grid, since it would create a masive crisis with similar Iranian retaliation on Gulf States, but found himself pushed into his corner by his (stupid) bluff being called. Thus an attempt at minor deescalation until troops arrive.

Its what it looks like anyway.

That will work a treat,gonna have to ground those squadrons of pink pigs,though.

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Yup. There was some big trades a few minutes before his announcement on stopping power plant strikes.

It’s all a grift.

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Fuck the American dickheads , they got this piece of shit to power.

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