Speculative because they assume and conclude TACO (a reckless assumption, I think, even though it may be likely).
Still a good read.
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What if it’s all a ruse like the negotiations they were having before attacking Iran (again)? What if this is just a ruse to buy some time to get some resources (Marine, GBAD, etc.) in place for the next round?
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This is actually probably correct, as it is clear that he is a puppet for the IRGC (he isn’t an ayatollah, the Islamic Republic was never supposed to be a monarchy, he has little legitimacy) and probably also wounded. Possibly dying.
Yeah, there is absolutely a chance of that. But I think what is most likely, is that they are looking for victory, some how. And that everything is ad-hoc.
One must remember, this admin is not as interested in US strategic forecast than usual admins (to put it mildly), they are mostly interested in what it means for the administration politically when it comes to elections and etc.
I.e. working for themselves. Which is why you always see the “deescalating statements” when markets opens, such as today.
But yes, could be a ruse too. Could be TACO, could be “we are not sure what the best course is, all looks dangerous”. Imo, highest likelyhood is Ad-Hoc (which could also end up being a ruse indirectly).
I mean, Day to Day Governance of a state doesn’t sound professional, but it is what Trump has done since he was ever elected. This war reeks of the same knee-jerk idiocy.
Unprofessional of me, I know. But…
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It is not as if Iran has opened up the Straits - time is really working against the US here. Sure, in about 10 days they will have a Marine group in theatre, but that is 10 days of mounting pressure. Stock market jumped up, oil prices went down, that is probably the basic purpose of the ‘5 days’ claim.
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Regarding ad-hoc, this was friday. If you didn’t catch it all, no wonder !!!
But my point is that it is some what hard to forecast what he will actually do. He is not Putin or Netanyahu, both cynical bastards but they act on some sort of logic and they at least have a plan and usually also a plan B.
Trump does not have a plan B.
As an example: If so and so much Russian forces appear on a border and their propaganda apparatus has prepared groundwork, you know they will invade. We also know how the Kremlin will spin stories if things go awry, to make it appear that everything is going according to plan (they do this far better than the US). Putin’s paranoia is known, , we know how he will never be in public how his every official word on tv is carefully sanitised before aired on tv. Theatre.
After Hamas october 7th attack, destruction of Gaza was completely obvious. Everyone who understood anything knew it would be a real war, fought with vengeance and spite.
It is known that Israel will absolutely always seek to drag the US into a war with iran, Israeli dream is Iranian regime change. All very predicable. It is also known that if Hezbollah enters a war when being weak (such as recently), Israel will invade Lebanon if at all militarily possible.
All of this is known and very predictable. Anyone who is surprised by Russia, Israel (or Iran and Hezbollah) do not understand the dynamics and lack knowledge, which is why miscalculating when it comes to those are relatively incompetent. But it is not so easy to predict Trump future course of action. It depends on so many events and who he last talked to.
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Yes, this seems synchronized with the weekdays and will naturally boost the markets. Interestingly, the five-day suspension will end on the eve of the weekend and the impacts of any new atrocities won’t be felt for at least two days.
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Yes, yes. This is what I am trying to say, it might be TACO, but please don’t be a naive and just automatically make such assumptions without contemplating to bring onboard a wheelbarrel of salt.
As I said, this is monday, when markets opens.
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Least surprising bit of info of the day, is this evidence of inside trading and the fact that no one will be charged, far less convicted and sent to prison (or massive fines whatever) for this.
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I said all that three hours ago. May be, I should be in strategy instead of branding. 
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The markets already seem to be pricing in the realization that this TACO is a step away from escalation, not actually a resolution to the broader conflict or the Straits problem. Traders are taking their gains off the table this afternoon.
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Well I just came across this. Needs verifying obviously but there’s no surprise in all honesty
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Yeah, I know. But when the markets shut on Friday, I expect an explosive weekend personally. We shall see.
Those marines needs time to get to Kharg and the US does not have teleportation. Imo, too soon to conclude that Trump is backing down. One can conclude that he is EXTREMELY sensitive of market movement and that he sequences military operations to the market, exploiting capitalist psychology.
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I think I have written several times that the assumption that ending the war is up to only the strongest party (Trump), is naive and dangerous.
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Turkish leaks.
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Salt needed, but still
See also post above about Iran having agency in ending this. Not everyone (especially American commentators) thinks so, but they do.
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Isn’t that the proof of an ex-President praising Trump for attacking Iran?
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Yeah, so does the Kremlin. They are still fighting their longest war since very fucking long ago (WW 2, Soviet Union fought the Great Patriotic War for 1418 days, while their full scale invasion of Ukraine is currently clocking in at 1488 days).
Recently, even official Russia has started to use the forbidden “W-Word”.
would be funny if Iran told Donald that the Strait of Hormuz would open again on the condition of Israel giving the Palestine’s back there land and recognising the state of Palestine!
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