Maybe you don’t agree, but almost everything I read points to Trump wanting to end the war as rapidly as possible. But it’s not possible, since his character (ego and narcissism) demands that he wins the war and avoids a public humiliation of just pulling out.
So he must choose between humiliation, staying the course or escalation.
We have seen movement though, demands of unconditional surrender, choosing next Iranian leader, regime change etc., these are gone. Clearly this lowering of War Goals indicates recalculation. But he is working with Israel, likely influenced by their strategic thinking as well, so there is a limit to movement. And really, no modern US president would take a war loss “easily” without attempting to win (no other modern US president would have launched this war in this manner though).
I think Trump will become frustrated, then escalate and truly comitt to the land operations in the hope that IR will then surrender conditionally.
Frankly, staying the course, Status Quo, is not workable. There is a limit to how much munitions you can spend on not achieving a strategic goal. This isn’t a “real war”, US cannot deplete its arsenal and storages (it can, but it would be insane). But there is always the choice to escalate in the hope that this can achieve deescalation. Trade Minister “Whats-his-name” even stated so on tv (“sometimes you have to escalate to deescalate”, he said).
Of course, I think that will be a disaster and lead to the US getting stuck for the forseeable future. But some think such escalation will lead to deescalation. I don’t, at least not in the case of Iran (it’s not black and white, sometimes escalate to deescalate might work in some scenarios). It’s playing with fire.
Usually, “Escalate to Deescalate” is a term usually used for Nuclear Use Threshold. I do not really like that these guys are playing around with such Strategic Terminology.
I would hate for them to have ideas regarding how to destroy Ishafan and other extremely hard to reach by conventional means targets. Nuclear use is a posibility in this conflict which I have kept in my mind and not written about previously. Because it is such an obvious solution to the dug-in nuclear sites, and these people seem to go for low-hanging fruit without thinking about the strategic consequences (low yield nuclear bombs precisly targeted that kills few civilians, will still greatly lower global nuclear use threshold, which i am not sure, as an example, that these guys would take into the calculation).
In general, I am not sure about these guys at all when it comes to strategic thinking and calculating fallout and consequences from their actions.
This is what I read in the beginning of the war from refugees too, but that was when they thought that Trump would bring regime change. Not sure what they think now.
But of course, the regime is hated beyond words. In several videos of explosions in Tehran (uploading by Iranians), they are laughing or singing.
But it is all anecdotal anyway and hard to say what the feeling is now. Trump will disappoint them anyway, this isn’t a Regime Change war.
Of course, the regime slaughtered more than 20 000 in just a very few days during the protests massacres not long ago, which is countless thousands more civilians than the US and Israel has killed so far in Iran to put it mildly.
This is what the Israelis are recommending to Trump:
Exclusive - Israeli security officials: The option of seizing islands in Iran (Kharg or others) or the Strait of Hormuz is “complex and fraught with danger,” and would likely trigger “massive Iranian attacks on energy infrastructure, the laying of mines, and, in any case, a severe escalation.”
Their recommendation, as conveyed to decision-makers: if Iran refuses an agreement- and in any case escalates attacks on regional energy- the allies should threaten (and, if necessary, carry out) strikes causing extensive damage to Iran’s energy infrastructure, and not immediately execute a ground operation.
The woman isn’t stupid at all. Wiser than many. If you are on Twitter and if you care about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, she is someone you should follow. She has a good heart but also a good brain.
This is not new actually. The moment October 7 happened, people kept saying that it’s a god-sent gift for Netanyahu to avoid/delay the trials and save his political career.
Qatar was not involved in any mediation efforts, said government spokesperson Majed al-Ansari at a briefing on Tuesday night, before adding as a telling aside: “If they exist.”
Arabs are scumbags. So imagine the level of scumbags US-Israel is, that they even scaring the Arabs. There’s reason why the ‘negotiations’ are taking place in one of the shadiest place on the earth, Pakistan.
I do think there is an ever increasing risk of Israeli false flag event occurring. A stray missile hitting a site of religious significance…justifying further escalation rather than deescalation.
Not a conspiracy theorist but Israeli goals have not been achieved and they will realise this is a once in a decade opportunity.
A country that bombs schools , hospitals and civilian infrastructure that support means of life is way beyond seeking justification for any of its actions.
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