https://x.com/Joyce_Karam/status/2047648452683653197
https://x.com/Joyce_Karam/status/2047668399916884393
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There is oftentimes a macabre artistry in the demonstration of power that the Russians seem to excel at, while the American’s really excel at living up to the stereotype given to them by the rest of the world - of being loud, dumb Americans.
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It’s a politically damaging comment by Merz and bad statesmanship.
I actually agree with this cynical pov
https://x.com/ulrichspeck/status/2049015435136299253
First he blathers on about Ukraine “probably” needing to cede territory and that Zelensky should use the EU as a carrot to accept ceding land (serious people understand this may happen, but there is a very “delicate” discussion ongoing on this topic in Ukraine), then this. It is kind of spectacular that he says these things in that manner in such a forum.
Simply bad politics and not all funny to me. Self harm.
Is the US getting humilated by Iran ? Yes, but primarily due to own lackluster strategy and it is absolutely idiotic to say that aloud and create media headlines when you are in Merz position. Simply very dumb and foot in mouth and could have real consequences. Say this in 3-5 years from now, Merz, not now, not when the situation with the US is so delicate for GER and the EU. Absolutely flabbergasted that he keeps blurting our these “honest” bloopers.
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Yeah I agree, he doesn’t come across as a smart statesman on this occasion.
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Nah, it’s just the world finally starting to catch up to who Merz is. Prior to his running for chancellor he’s been mainly focussed on German poltics so we’re more accustomed to this for decades. He’s a master of burning bridges, often off the cuff, in the moment emotional and careless in his communication - and ultimately his decisions (we just haven’t seen much of the latter yet, as he’s only recently been in a position of actual responsibility and he actually hasn’t been able to do much except reacting with limited options).
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Yeah, I remember you mentioning this prior to his election
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The issue for me is that apart from the many things I totally disagree with him on, I can’t even really trust him with the stuff I do fundamentally agree with him on, because of those traits. There’s always the danger of little Fritz coming out of the box.
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It is interesting in a way the comment. 10 years ago that would have been political death but nowadays it is not even par for the course in terms of what can cause a tremor in ones path.
A bit OT but a while ago I posed the question: What are the big companies are doing in light of Trump coming to power? I felt that most were in a wait and see mode. I get the feeling it still feels like that and it is a mistake that will cost dearly.
Trump I and COVID, followed by Trump II, with the associated wars, tariffs and economic uncertainty will upend the very bedrock they have relied on - export to the US and China, Germany in particular is heading for a bit of a wakeup call. The auto industry, which refused to invest in different directions (EVs in particular) will awake post Trump II and find their sales to be devastated. VW is looking to shed 10s of thousands of jobs and I assume BMW and Mercedes will also. China will shop in China and the US, in the US…
The Iran war is obviously make it worse. Feels like Merz has bigger fish to fry…
I think you have set the bar a bit high for Merz.
He’s not wrong of course, but why say it?
UAE is leaving OPEC, which actually works in Iran’s favour in this crisis. UAE is quitting over demands to increase output, which it cannot really do in the near term, but will be readily able to do once hostilities cease. As an investment signal, that suggests a price reduction in the indefinite future - deterring new drilling today elsewhere.
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But wouldn’t the increased production-lower price reduce their (UAE) revenue, specially in a period of reconstruction?
Lower their revenue per barrel, but if they double their output they will be far ahead - and UAE has some of the lowest production costs in the world. I haven’t looked since pre-COVID, but Canadian oil sands in 2018 had a break-even of $45, UAE was just $12 (other Gulf states are also very low). With significant excess capacity, they are able to dramatically increase their net revenue. This tension has been rumbling along for a long time, as UAE has had one of the tighter quotas (although in terms of who is doing the heavy lifting in the OPEC cartel, the Saudis are even more stringent). But I suspect it is precisely the reconstruction costs that have led to this breakdown.
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UAE has also diversified into other fields that much more than the other Gulf states.
Thanks.
Is there any OPEC for gas/LNG producing countries?
Sort of, the GECF. It has never been as effective and has never tried to control prices - the natural gas market is much more segmented than the oil market, because of the need to transform it to LNG for many export use cases.
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Think UAE made a wise move, allows them to ship oil through fujairah towards south asian countries by passing the hormuz stretch.
They can pump more oil across to India and other countries to get their revenue across. And it’s good for India as well.
And potentially allows trade in local currencies. reducing the petrodollar importance.
@Magnus , anyone know this lady?
Scary stuff 
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