Who would you buy?

[AnfieldRdDreamer]

@Draexnael

I’d say youth wide we have currently the following I’d hope to step up;

Gordon, Beck, Clarkson, Morton, Frauendorf, Bradley. Good mix of players with Gordon the most likely to make the step up.

I had high hopes for Glatzel and Stewart but I think injuries may have stopped them making it here.

Forwards - I think next summer Mane or Bobby is sold and we bring in another forward around the 23/24 age mark.
Midfielders - Again next summer Oxlade will be sold and we’ll bring in a midfielder.

I’m hopeful on youth too. Certainly think nothing needs to happen at FB recruitment wise for awhile. Beck could become the back up to either Tsimikas or Robertson. Bradley back up to Alexander-Arnold. Williams may move higher up the pitch or move on. Quansah, Billy the Kid or Rhys Williams between them may mean we don’t have to recruit much for CB. Loads of goal keeping prospects and older free/cheap keepers out there to sort out back ups to Alisson and Kelleher.

Midfield I’d look to bring a cheaper but still young guy who can be a squad option initially but hopefully force into the reckoning as a potential starter once settled. Boubacar Kamara should be a free option, Ryan Gravenberch will have 12 months left. At least one of Milner, Ox or Keita should be moving on which would create room. Maybe Tyler Morton or Clarkson getting more responsibility and game time too. Think Balagizi could start getting a look in as an AM type back up to Elliott and Jones. That would basically be AM part of CM sorted for years to come, club developed and young.

Then the following year summer 2023 maybe recruit big for CM?

In attack as you say ideally one big star goes in 2022 giving enough in fee to help recruit their replacement. Maybe Minamino and Origi replaced by a combination of youth guys like Gordon, Blair and Musialowski whilst maybe a free signing like Sardar Azmoun could offer depth/experience.

Then in 2023 or 2024 we bring in another star attacker. Maybe 2024 if one of the three starters extends their deal and stays a little longer they could then be replaced by the new manager who can select his own new forward to help change the team to his tactics. Leaving just one of Salah, Mane, Firmino as the older head to help during the transition.

Or we sit Klopp down in front of the few bad games he’s had here on loop till his resistance is broken and he determines to stay and fix it

[redfanman]

@AnfieldRdDreamer

Klopp doesn’t like to make too many changes per year but if he’s not going to leave an over the hill dysfunctional squad for the next manager a lot is going to have to be changed.

Our current squad ages in summer 2024 with * for those that will be out of contract before then;

Alisson 31, Kelleher 25, Adrian 37*

VvD 33, Konate 25, Gomez 27*, Matip 33*

Robertson 30, Tsimikas 28, Alexander-Arnold 25, Williams 23

Fabinho 30, Keita 29*, Jones 23, Thiago 33*, Henderson 34, Oxlade-Chamberlain 31*, Milner N/A(ageless)*, Elliott 21

Salah 32*, Mane 32*, Firmino 32*, Minamino 29*, Origi 29*, Jota 27

Your list is missing Nat.

I don’t think the squad needs that much work, we have a fairly balanced squad, numbers wise, now so should make it a bit easier to replace outgoings 1 on 1 basis. Particularly if we can promote a few from the youth set up, such as Gordon.

Plus, maybe there is a case for allowing the squad to age together somewhat to save the funds for any incoming manager &/or Edwards’ replacement?

[AnfieldRdDreamer]

@redfanman

Plus, maybe there is a case for allowing the squad to age together somewhat to save the funds for any incoming manager &/or Edwards’ replacement?

No indication the club uses money saved in prior financial years. Seems more like each financial year is treated completely separate.

[Draexnael]

I’d love us to sell Oxlade and sign Tchouaméni.

[AnfieldRdDreamer]

Think that’ll be a long queue.

[redfanman]

@AnfieldRdDreamer

No indication the club uses money saved in prior financial years. Seems more like each financial year is treated completely separate.

No, but I’m asking the question regardless.

[rab]

The issue with the squad for me is the outgoings. Sure, we might be open to move on Mane to raise some funds for a replacement plus some change to strengthen elsewhere but age wise he’s reaching the point where his value has probably already peaked. Then there’s the question of who has the need and the money to do a deal? Not many these days. Add to that his contract situation and more importantly the contract situation of Mo and we could well be getting backed into a corner here.

In the midfield we’re likely to carry Henderson, Thiago and Milner until their contracts expire or until we’ll only get nominal sums for them if they do move on. This is compounded by the Ox and Keita situations where we’re just not getting enough from them for the wages they command but we’re not likely to get a fee that makes it worth selling them. We’ve seen the sums we’ve tried to ask for Origi and that’s almost certainly a large factor in why he’s still here so I can’t see us letting them go cheap. Again, contracts are running down though and decisions need to be made.

It feels very much like we’re approaching the end of this cycle. This group isn’t done yet but it’s on the horizon and some tough decisions will need to be made in the next year or two. Much of it depends on Mo’s contract. If he signs a new deal, I imagine Mane is the one we might look to cash in on. If he doesn’t, we can’t let him walk away on a free and so this summer becomes the start of the new era.

What’s also very worrying with all this is the Edwards situation. He’s been so instrumental in what we’ve achieved. We could find ourselves needing to appoint a new sporting director, sell Mo for less than he’s worth and find a replacement and address the midfield conundrum this summer and that’s a huge upheaval in what will be one of Klopp’s last remaining seasons here.

[Kopstar]

@AnfieldRdDreamer

@redfanman

Plus, maybe there is a case for allowing the squad to age together somewhat to save the funds for any incoming manager &/or Edwards’ replacement?

No indication the club uses money saved in prior financial years. Seems more like each financial year is treated completely separate.

I thought that this was pretty much your whole arguments previously about how much the club had to spend. In that low transfer spend in previous years meant the club were likely to splash the cash?

I’m not saying I disagree with you, there are good indications from previous years (particularly the summer of 2018) where this is the case. Why are you now diverging from that viewpoint?

[AnfieldRdDreamer]

@Kopstar

I thought that this was pretty much your whole arguments previously about how much the club had to spend. In that low transfer spend in previous years meant the club were likely to splash the cash?

I’m not saying I disagree with you, there are good indications from previous years (particularly the summer of 2018) where this is the case. Why are you now diverging from that viewpoint?

OK to make it more complicated adding a player onto the books will mean the cost of the player is amortised over the length of the contract and (unless it’s a clause of some kind) the fee will likely be paid over 3 or 4 annual cash payments.

These costs have almost 100% been cleared off the books yet there’s been no movement to add more costs in the form of incoming players onto the annual bills.

Maybe that room is being kept free on the books to use at a future point? Maybe it’s been used to pay for increased contracts (although you’d wonder what the increases in commercial revenue are paying for then), or to pay off the stadium work costs quicker than needed so we can save a couple million a year, or to recover the covid losses (which the club gave indications would not be the case).

Either way yes you’re right I spoke too simply in the other reply there should be massive amounts of room on the clubs books (unless there was some serious cooking going on to hide previous losses) to recruit quite big some time soon.

But each year we determine if the club has run at a profit or loss and that doesn’t seem to impact how the club run the next year. If that makes sense?

[Euphoria]

Think Bowen could be quite similar to Diogo. Fantastic on the ball with real pace.

[GaryBarlow99]

I thought Bowen was 27 for some reason and didn’t realise he is only 24. I still think we could do better but if Klopp wants him then what do I know

[redfanman]

@AnfieldRdDreamer

OK to make it more complicated adding a player onto the books will mean the cost of the player is amortised over the length of the contract and (unless it’s a clause of some kind) the fee will likely be paid over 3 or 4 annual cash payments.

There is no need to make it complicated. Discussing Amortization in this context is largely a waste of time. Lets use Jota’s transfer as a simplified example; let’s say we pay £45m payable over 3 years = £15m in each of those years. Given a 5 year contract means that is amortized over 5 years = £9m in each of those years. So, that amortization figure understates the costs in years 1-3 and overstates in year 4&5.

@AnfieldRdDreamer

These costs have almost 100% been cleared off the books yet there’s been no movement to add more costs in the form of incoming players onto the annual bills.

Well, that’s not true. We’ve added Thiago, Jota and Konate within the last 18 months. We’ve also increased wages with a number of new contracts this summer alone. Amortization may show a decline but the actual underlying costs for the club may have risen.

@AnfieldRdDreamer

Maybe that room is being kept free on the books to use at a future point? Maybe it’s been used to pay for increased contracts (although you’d wonder what the increases in commercial revenue are paying for then), or to pay off the stadium work costs quicker than needed so we can save a couple million a year, or to recover the covid losses (which the club gave indications would not be the case).

Amortization figures alone in a given year is not telling you what the sustainable level of spending is. You can only spend the same £ once. Some of the previous amortization figures will reflect one off monies from player sales that we have then spent so we have no reason to expect similarly high expenditures without further sales, borrowing or significant revenue growth.

@AnfieldRdDreamer

But each year we determine if the club has run at a profit or loss and that doesn’t seem to impact how the club run the next year. If that makes sense?

Well, that’s why you should be putting greater focus on the cashflow statement. Movements in cash are a much better indication, particularly as we know the club are keen not to borrow funds to buy players or pay higher wages.

Edited because my maths suck

[AnfieldRdDreamer]

@redfanman

Well, that’s not true. We’ve added Thiago, Jota and Konate within the last 18 months. We’ve also increased wages with a number of new contracts this summer alone. Amortization may show a decline but the actual underlying costs for the club may have risen.

Thiago and Jota are 2 years into their payment structure now. Konate was a clause and probably (and never likely to be fully confirmed) paid in the one financial year.

So we likely only have the last year (if over 3 years) or two (if over 4 years) of the spending from summer 2020, about £75m so at most we are looking at what? Maybe £20m per year cash payments going out? Like maximum?

In the 2017/18 season we added about £155m in out going payments to the books, probably over 3 years so roughly just over £50m outgoing in 17/18, 18/19 & 19/20 financial years (winning CL and PL during that time meaning all bonuses likely paid).

Then in 2018/19 season we added about £165m to the books, again probably over 3 years. Yet again likely all clauses met in that time to. So roughly £55m going out in 18/19, 19/20 and 20/21.

We haven’t really sold many since summer 2017 except Coutinho in January 2018, an odd trickle of income. It’s odd but we cashed in on that transfer debt to get the full amount early off a third party that Barca then owed the planned payments too. My guess (plucked completely out my arse) is we got that in the 2018/19 financial accounts the first that will have shown both high outgoing payments.

So in either 2018/19 or 2019/20 we had outgoing cash commitments of £105m roughly with the Coutinho money helping one of those. Probably the first.

In the 2017/18 financial window and 2020/21 financial window we had about £50m going out.

Since then maybe £20m per financial year committed to going out in 2020/21, 2021/22 and 2022/23. This year (2022/23) we likely added a one off financial payment of Konate to that to take it to about £55m.

Now we declared profits from 2017/18 through to 2019/20 when we were throwing money out the club for that two years spending.

In 2020/21 it was likely £75m, in 2021/22 it was likely £55m (unless we spend this winter) and in 2022/23 it will be all the way down at around £20m plus any spending we do summer 2022 and January 2023. With that spending being spread over 3/4 years unless its a clause. Currently there should be nothing or nearly nothing set to be paid out from 2023/24 onwards.

This should mean we could easily add £100m spending (at £33m a year over 3 years or £25m a year over 4) from Jan or next summer without even getting to lower level spending over recent years. Spending even £200, providing its spread over 3 or 4 years shouldn’t even cause issues if we really didn’t run at a loss in those past years. Especially as revenue should have gone up since those years.

You could even argue adding £100m to £150m onto the squad every 2 or 3 years would be a really prudent way of financing the squad from a business point of view.

[rab]

@AnfieldRdDreamer

You could even argue adding £100m to £150m onto the squad every 2 or 3 years would be a really prudent way of financing the squad from a business point of view.

Don’t take this the wrong way your post has four should’s, four probably’s, seven likely’s and two maybe’s.

That’s an awful lot of uncertainty and assumptions to make to reach a conclusion of “it could be prudent to spend £150m on players every two years.”

As @redfanman has said, you can only spend each £ once. If revenues have been hit by Covid at the same time CL revenue has taken a dip due to not progressing as far and wages have increased, both with the bonuses for the CL and PL and now with contract extensions, then it makes sense that there might be less pounds in the pot to invest. And every future commitment is another pound you can’t spend down the road.

For those three most recent signings there’s the need to cover a conservative estimate of about £83m in wages over the next 4-5 years and that’s before bonuses and extensions for probably two of them. Amortisation can’t make that commitment go away but it does need to be accounted for in the long term view.

I think there’s just too much guesswork on the finances to say we should have space on the books for a spend of £x. The accounts that are there for us to see have been analysed in detail by a football finance expert and his conclusion is we’re being cautious but not overly so by any means and haven’t got down the route of others who have borrowed money to spend.

We know Klopp likes a smaller group and won’t buy for the sake of it so, if you’ll allow me my own assumption here, maybe we’re not spending on transfers because he’s largely happy with the group he has and only sees the need to invest the types of sums you’re taking about, should we lose a big player. If we can’t shift an Origi or an Ox then he’s happy enough to work with them rather than buy someone else and have players around unhappy at not getting a game.

[redalways]

But you’re mistaking the point ARD is trying to make. Nearly every single ARD post is about how we need to be spending more more more, and that FSG should put in more money, regardless of how it’s actually spent. If we spent £70m on Harvey Elliott and £50m on Curtis Jones he (I’m assuming) would have been a lot more happier than what actually transpired.

Every single post by ARD is inevitably about spending, spending, spending. If we do well, it’s about how much better we could have done if we spent x amount, and if we do poorly, it’s obviously because FSG haven’t spent y amount on some fantasy player. Every single post talking about much higher player turnover than we’ve ever had under Jürgen Klopp.

You’re arguing accounting with ARD despite him having been disproved multiple times over and over again by people who actually understand accounting, like SwissRamble, or @Lowton_Red (if I recall correctly). Yet like a broken record, he goes on and on. I’m surprised he’s not an Everton fan given how obsessed he is with the transfer window.

[Kopstar]

@ILLOK mate, @AnfieldRdDreamer has escaped again…

[rab]

The finance chat can get a bit wearing and I know it’s not everyone’s cup of tea but I’m not into picking out individuals like that if I can control my responses.

But there must a reason for the way we’re managing our spending and I don’t think it’s as simple as “we can comfortably afford to but FSG just don’t fancy it.” The Swiss Ramble analysis certainly doesn’t suggest that to be the case and I’m inclined to defer to his analysis over anyone else’s.

To try and pull it back to transfers, I do wonder whether there might be a bosman or two, particularly in centre midfield, that we could look to take advantage of this summer? But I think all our activity is going to be massively dependent on the Mane and Salah contract situations.

[redalways]

@rab

The finance chat can get a bit wearing and I know it’s not everyone’s cup of tea but I’m not into picking out individuals like that if I can control my responses.

Nope, most people are rational and recognise that there exists a strategy, and a whole team to pursue that strategy. I’m more than keen to have that debate over financial wherewithal and what strategies we might have, including who might be some targets. E.g. the debate over targets. I’m more than convinced that Konaté was our target once Lovren left, and we wanted to wait until he was available. Or that for example, until all the recent smoke around this, I was fairly certain that we have been waiting for Bellingham as an elusive midfield signing. It makes perfect sense, especially timing-wise, since we’ll most likely see Milner leave next year.

Some on the other hand are simply more concerned about actual transfer spending than how our team actually ends up playing.

[Quicksand]

Bellingham, Mbappe and Haaland.

[redalways]

Yeah that was my dream scenario, although given how it seems that Mbappe is obsessed with Real, I’m not sure he’s as feasible as Haaland and Bellingham though. I’m rather concerned about any potential feelings that Haaland might have for City, as well as his agent/dad, but apart from that, I’m all aboard. Much better than Lautaro Martinez am I right @Kopstar?