Breaking News Thread

From the first 2 verses of the Trimetric Classic (San Zi Jing), written almost 800 years ago:

Men at birth, are naturally good.
Their natures are similar; their habits become different.

If, negligently, not taught, their nature deteriorate.
The right way to teach, is with absolute thoroughness.


Doesn’t matter really. Nawaz is still going to be the PM.

No, my friend, it matters. It means the Military barely has a grip. Who would have imagined such an outcome? None. Despite all the restrictions PTI won over 35% of the seats, they went neck to neck with Nawaz even in his own backyard. This is as close to a revolution Pakistan has ever come.

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The army can well instigate a coup at any time to reassert their power.

Pakistan is a basket case of a country anyway and their democratic process is a sham1. It isn’t as if Imran really is the Messiah. He’s been an abject failure as the PM.

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This is of course very serious and may lead to war down the line (or not, depending what it is). We might not get the details in a while before US decides to leak it.

I am guessing Iran has finally managed to create a working nuclear bomb in secret, but it may also be something else. But this is very unusual and it clearly regards a state seen by US as adverserial in nature. It’s limited who and what it could be.

But this could also create tons of uninformed and some what informed speculation (and maybe even informed), so RUN DEBATE !!!

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Do you have any reason that leads you to thinking Iran has created a working nuclear weapon?

With all that is going on in the world, I am curious what has lead you to think this, rather than something to do with Russia, or China? or Nth Korea?

Look at the wording. Iran was just an example from top of my head anyway, but essential to look at the wording of what is written here:

“Urgent matter with regard to destabilizing foreign military capability

Someone adversarial has something they did not have before that is urgent enough to call in Congress.
Iran is just my best guess. Doesn’t mean it is fact. I don’t know. I am speculating. But certainly Iran wants to have nuclear capability, so.

Iran crossing the nuclear weapon threshold seems plausible. If that’s what it is, there’s a large gap between having a bomb, and being able to deploy it to your preferred target. If that’s what it is, it is possible that America, or Israel, will seek a preemptive strike to take it out, and then it remains to be seen if more have been made, and what happens next. It doesn’t sound good.

It might also be something to do with Russia, who may now feel more emboldened to threaten NATO in light of Trump’s words.

Or it could be China, either with a weapon that is beyond the scope of American technology, or it could be intel on China and a move on Taiwan?

I’m just speculating, but it doesn’t sound good, at all.

I’ll add one more thought to the pot. Maybe it has come to light that Trump has sold nuclear secrets to Saudi Arabia, and they either have the bomb, or have helped someone else in that regard, so their finger isn’t directly on the trigger?

Second edit:
Or North Korea. Maybe they have something that can reach America? And maybe even Russia helped them?

Not for Iran. Iran has advanced technology in ballistic missiles. They have multiple missiles that could carry a nuclear bomb and which it is very hard to acually credibly shoot down even with Arrow and latest Patriot.

Also, DPKR has had ICBMs that can reach continental US for years now. It has been written much about and they have tested them quite publically. It would also not be urgent, I assume, if their missiles can reliably hit New York (which many analysts thinks they can already) but only Seattle.

Ugh. So something could be a lot more imminent then.

Are you able to guess on the strategy? in particular, I know it is hard to acquire the bomb, so getting just one bomb is a huge task.

But presumably you would want to do your utmost to have two, or more, and spread them out to mitigate the risk of losing the capability altogether in the event of a preemptive strike?

I assume it has something to do with a working bomb, and when it is urgent, I think it may also have something about “we are not sure of their intentions in the near future”. But I don’t really know.

But I think Urgent and new military capability that is politically destabilizing are key words.

As for the example of Iran:
We know they have most of their nuclear research bases deep, deep underground and indeed spread out so that they cannot easily be taken out by a mere bombing raid.

The problem is of course, that you can’t bomb knowledge away…

But maybe this is not about Iran at all. Important to remember that we do not know. So while I think it is most likely, it could be some other state (and maybe it is not even about a working nuclear bomb at all, but some how something else). But not many other states.

Not desputing any of that, but it still leaves it all very open.

It could also very easily be to do with Russian forces being ready/better prepared to attack Europe or Nato countries after Trumps recent comments. Or they could have developed new chemical/biological weapons that were previously not thought of as possible.

It could be someone has the means and capabilities to blow up and completely shut down the Suaz or Panama canal which would be a massive catastrophy in trade and would see massive issues in cost of living for a lot of people in the west.

North Korea has has long range weapons for some time, but not the ability to turn them nuclear, so could they have managed to finally get their hands on nuclear warheads?

Speaker Mike Johnson just said there’s no need for any alarm, because steady hands are at the wheel.

Well, that’s me reassured then!

Never mind that all I can think of is how well it turned out when Rio Ferdinand boasted that Ole’s at the wheel!

I don’t think it could to be honest. And the reason is that that is not a ** destabilizing foreign military capability**, but an invasion threat.

As for North Korea, they have had working nuclear bombs for many years now and tested them as well. The ICBMs they have tested are mere vehicles for them. Long range ICBMs are not designed with conventional payload in mind, I am afraid (I mean, you don’t lob a super expensive missile through space towards another continent and then have a mere 1-ton HE warhead on it)

But we’ll see. But my guess is that with destabilizing it likely means “immune to direct limited military pressure” and therefore likely a nuclear bomb,

Anyway, facts will come out eventually. Might take some time, might not, depending on political will in the US and elsewhere (they do control leaks).

Nevermind. It’s just likely US drama queens it appears.

It sounds like the end of the world can wait until tomorrow then?

But what’s this about Soyuz and payload? Is it Putin waving a big stick, so we all settle on Russia holding on to Crimea and Eastern swathes of Ukraine?

It is hysterically stupid to release such a press statement about a new-ish informaton on the capabilities of a Russian ICBM. Whoever made that statement should be voted out of Congress.

It’s just “oh new Russian ICBM is a bit more world ending than we thought and we may not be able to shoot it down”. Who fucking cares. If either Great Power unloads ICBMs with nukes against each other, they are only going to be able to shoot down 10 percent, at best, so whatever.


Ok. So Russians going for a stupid idea from the Cold War is now urgent and politically destabilizing. WTF even. These people. This is basically Golden Eye the James Bond movie.