Possible peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. US says 90% done. Merz and Zelensky speaking now.
There is no deal.
The idea that there will be a “deal”, as if this is real estate and not a military campaign, is an American one and no one else believes the world works like that. Wars do not end in “deals”. Unless someone forces a cease fire to freeze a war, they continue until exhaustion or one side has reached enough strategic objectives. This isn’t a military operation, it is a real war of conquest.
90% is not “done”, as per the US. That is pure hokus pokus.
I will not repeat the minimum war goals once again, I have written those maybe 10-15 times already. They do not change except for military or socioeconomic reasons.
Russia has just been routed from Kupyansk (the good news in latter weeks) in an impressive counter offensive, while Pokrovst is almost secured and Siversk almost fallen to Ru. Mirnohgrad remains in operational encirclement. Pressure on zaporizhzhia is ongoing, Slow advances also on Kharkiv front.
The good news from today is this:
https://x.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/2000597393356755293
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I doubt there will be as I can’t see Putin giving back any territory, nor will Ukraine accept losing any.
Unless part of it was to include US troops in Ukraine and US nukes which Putin would definitely not go for.
They will accept losing territory in a frozen conflict type peace, absolutely, but not what Russia wants, which is that they vacate all of their defenses in Donbas and much more.
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What this is all about is strenghtening Ukraine’s negotiating position and to save them from the American trap. That is what Mertz is trying to do. EUR leaders trying to negotiate with the US on Ukraine’s behalf. Because the US position is almost Russia’s position.
What Mertz actually said was that there was now a chance for a real peace process.
People needs to stop listening to American spin. They are literally the ones with claims that 90% is done and blah blah. It’s pure idiocy.
Here is a source that at least doesn’t spin it like the American ones:
https://www-vg-no.translate.goog/nyheter/i/0pE6X6/witkoff-mye-framgang-i-ukraina-samtaler?_x_tr_sl=no&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=no&_x_tr_pto=wapp
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This is fresh Ukrainian public opinion polling.
https://x.com/ChristopherJM/status/2000505298201538865
I’ll snippet choice parts of it out:
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Zelensky did just say that he would be willing to hold a referendum on ceding lands as part of any peace deal.
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Yes, they will likely answer yes to that. But this does not solve anything but the obvious.
I would be completely shell shocked if Russia accepted just Crimea and Donbas.
This is the war map, zoomed out
Note Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts (and the nuclear power plant there).
Zoomed a bit more in, you can see the direction of Russian Army Group East
Zaporizhzhia city…
Donbas goals remains Kramatorsk and Sloviansk
In the north, getting pushed out of Kupyansk and over the Oskil river, is a problem for the task of this north eastern army group (taking Kupyansk frees up a lot of indefensible land and would aid the northern group, making defense extremely hard)
Because the northern grouping is stalled in Vovchansk
Of course, from a military technical perspective, all of Ukraine’s defences, the defences that slows down Russia’s advances, are dug in this area
The idea that Ru would get this at zero cost is pretty bonkers. And of course, this would be a capitulaton.
Maybe Ukraine will capitulate, be forced to, but it would be no “deal”. It would be forced by American betrayal and direct American coopertion with Russia. There would be heavy leverages involved to force such a capitulation (denial of military sales, satelite and intel and much more).
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Just saw Zelensky on German television. Didn’t sound that much different from what he’s said previously. Basically said they would never accept just handing over Ukraine land to Russia (legally). Much more along the lines of temporary frozen conflict like Magnus said.
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This is such an absurdity
https://x.com/JimmySecUK/status/2000634708183621779
https://x.com/NotWoofers/status/2000640054893666408
The US is framing Ukraine as the unreasonable party here.
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Some good news. I hope he never comes out.
So much for heroic ex-Royal Marine.
Doyle had history of assault convictions including biting off man’s ear
Greaney goes through a list of Doyle’s previous convictions – he was found guilty of multiple offences both civilian and military.
Doyle was also discharged from the Royal Marines in 1993, after 22 months of service, because of the offences.
They took place when he was 18-22.
** 1989: He committed military offence equivalent to common assault and was give seven days’ detention*
** 1991: Got into a scuffle with other men in a nightclub where he punched someone in the face multiple times and was convicted of assault*
** 1992: Convicted of two more military offences – including using violence against a superior officer. Later that year he was also convicted of the military equivalent of a criminal damage offence*
** 1993- Discharged and forced out of the Royal Marines*
** 1994: Jailed for 12 months for biting off the ear of another man in a drunken brawl with sailors*
He was released from prison in May 1995, the court hears, and took steps over the next 30 years to rehabilitate himself after a “difficult early adulthood”.
Reading the victims statements is harrowing. I can’t understand what was going through his head at the time. He truly is a psycopath with no empathy for other people.
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Good, and he should not have any chance of parol as long as he refuses to identify the other 4 involved
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Sad
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Deleted! 
@Magnus
I have deleted it. No mod has asked me to remove it, otherwise i would have.
Yes, i should have checked the source before posting. I am fallible. 
This professor was technically assassinated by a hitman.
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If they need anyone to hang the twat, I’ll do it.
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An expected post-Trump development. Many European countries are also debating it now. But we shall see. For Japan, to even debate this speaks volumes.
https://x.com/NikkeiAsia/status/2001683238176051628
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I’m bit hazy on Japanese politics, haven’t really followed it that closely in years but I thought there was always an underlying element pushing for this, or was that strictly about open re-armament of conventional weaponry (thinking of “A Japan that can say no” etc).
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I think every country should have at least 6 nukes and the means to perfectly deliver them. This way there will always be a “good country” that can save the day…