Maybe, but you must not underestimate how unpopular the Iranian regime is. I think it could be toppled, but without troops on the ground, it would be a terrible bloodshed indeed as various factions vie for power (yes, if they bomb I think they will kill Khamenei) and they don’t seem to have a plan.
I honestly think this is hard to say (outcome). I suspect the campaign may actually partly succeed (i.e. destruction of Iran’s military capacity in the medium term and removal of Iran as a geopolitical “problem” for quite some time). Iran is very weak now after all and truly in dire straits no matter what their super agressive rethoric says. The legitimacy of the Iranian regime in the Iranian population is very low and I think you are at least partly mistaken if you think this attack will be unpopular in the region. Iran is deeply hated by most of its neighbours and a lot of the Gult states are afraid of it. Some of those neighbours will maybe publically condemn US strikes, but not so secretly be overjoyed that they are happening.
But given this is the Trump admin, I expect lack of planning and lack of clearly defined goals, and it’s hard to say then what might happen. The only thing I am fairly confident at, is that the strikes are coming soon.
I am totally confident that they will defend them with brave words, intelligence and possibly humanitarian aid (both Russia and China, it’s their partner after all). Nothing else. It’s technically possible that the Iranians have a few chinese missiles we don’t know about, maybe they will sink a US ship. But it does not change the outcome.
So no, not really. Iran is just as alone in reality as Venezuela was. Strategic partnership in defence with Russia and China only amounts to so much when a Big Boy comes with a club. Geographically, neither China nor Russia can actually do something for Iran. If they wanted to, it is way too late now when strike forces have been built up.
I would align it closer to becoming more like a Libya type situation. Just on a much bigger scale.
I haven’t the knowledge to know who the eventual pretendants will be in the case the Ayatollah regime falls however it will be extremely messy.
Regaining influence over the tribal nature within will be next to impossible I would think.
He’d need a big army and the US doesn’t want to go in.
Of course the Shah era was great for the ‘west’ whilst it lasted. It did lead to what Iran had in place now though.
’ The state of Jalisco said it had suspended public transportation in some areas and warned hotels to instruct their guests to remain inside. The state of Nayarit canceled classes on Monday.
The U.S. government warned American citizens to “shelter in place until further notice” in parts of five states: Jalisco, Tamaulipas, Michoacán, Guerrero and Nuevo León. Airlines issued travel advisories or halted flights.
Much of the violence occurred in Guadalajara, Jalisco’s capital, a hub of 1.4 million people that is a host city for this year’s World Cup.’ - NYT
