All the best to you.
I see no super quick end to this, personally, but Iranian ballistic missile fires will cease or almost cease relatively soon (within 14 days). But drone swarms will continue until a cease fire and shaheeds are getting through US GBAD. Please do take care. American-israeli plan, such as it is, extremely unclear and seems to be made up on the fly as we go.
The war is illegitimate and illegal, but this no longer matters in 2026.
It’s a preemptive strike, planned weeks ago, to take out their nuclear program that we obliterated only a few months earlier, and that we expect will lead to the regime change without any clarity of what will come after, and all for retribution for stealing the 2020 election.
@jabu is trying to draft some OKRs to define success for the mission and just burst into tears
I know that and agree.
But on a more sober note, bombing the nuclear program is a set and clear goal. Also if you include the ballistic arsenal. But they have moved the goal posts to regime change, while I see no operational plan for that but vague hope for a popular uprising and then maybe fly CAS for such a theoretical uprising. I don’t regard that as a strategic plan. But tactically, it is all well planned enough (the strike itself). But I have strong doubts that they included many of the unknowns or even planned for contracted Iranian drone bombardment. Iran will not capitulate tomorrow after all.
Also, I find it ludicrous to not attempt to build a proper Casus Belli stronger than they have. Right now, we have a situation where Bharainis celebrate US 5th Fleet HQ being bombed, while Iranians clebrate US and Israeli strikes. It is…chaotic. Everyone is in the wrong.
I also see this strike as something the US right wing will use to bash Europeans with because we don’t “stand with the US” and actively help, but that would probably happen anyway.
Nasty situation and very uncessecary after the Omani foreign ministry negotiated better terms (on the nuclear issue) than anyone thought possible (Iran did yield a lot to pressure, but too late it seems).
Like Carl Bildt says, this is Text Book “War of Choice” and they are after all not legal (if it even matters anymore). EUR states just cannot support that. But due to the problematic squeeze between Putin and Trump, we also cannot overwhelmingly condemn it. Fucking geopolitics is nasty. No space for manouver.
“It is so sad to see western democracies lose their passion for justice and a sense of right and wrong the further away from their shores”
cough cough America’s view on Ukraine…
I am not sure Khamenei is so important, but the symbolism of Shia-dom under illegitimate attack certainly is.
I would not be surprised if we see suicide bombers (martyrdom operations) targeting US personell in the Gulf States, nor should anyone else be surprised. It is after all, one of the more logical “unknowns” that Magnus is a bit unsure these asshats have planned for
For now, I think the only European country overwhelmingly supporting the strikes on Iran and hoping it will go further and deeper, is Ukraine. For a variety of reasons.
But the rest of us are not in a war if survival, and we can afford to have principles and be against this. But for Ukraine, this is a chance (because who the fuck knows!) to maybe nudge the White House in a slightly friendlier direction.
I think he is dead. The Iranians themselves do not deny he is dead, but say “he is not dead as far as they know”.
Khemenei was supposed to speak an hour ago to the Iranian people, but did not show and no messages since.
Blah fucking blah.
Gharahkhani is one of the nicest guys in Norway, but imo such statements, that could be misunderstood, should be calibrated with the Prime Minister and Foreign Ministry. This is grey…
Here he is walking a narrow path. He did not say anything wrong here, but it is borderline support for the war (though he phrases it more carefully with a hope that the people will not be disappointed and forgotten).
I hope this doesn’t get scandalised in Norway, as he is a man I hold in very, very high regard.
(Masud Gharakhani is the President of the Norwegian Storting, or parliament if you will; and came as a refugee to Norway in 1987).
Ok.
But MUCH salt needed. Iran lies surprisingly often for a religious state.
ISR claim:
I wrote about this after the Hamas October 7th attack and the war that came as a consequence of it, where Hezbollah and Hamas were mostly taken out from the chess board. Whoever still thinks Iran planned the October 7th massacres and not Hamas, is a foolish person. The consequences of October 7th has absolutely destroyed Iran’s deterrance. A deterrence that once, everyone including Israel and the US feared. Why Hamas October 7th attack was an absurd insanity and the most irresponsible attack in recent history: exhibit 89968937789377378037827
But Hezbollah expressed its brotherly solidarity
I doubt anyone but the super rich gives a fuck about Dubai’s supposed nightmare scenario where hardly anyone dies and there is hardly any real damage but their precious tourist economy.
Is this irony?
Surely the USA can rely on their new friends. Russia and those in the bored of peace fiasco.
yes indeed
These little girls were aged between 7- 11 years. Parents thought it was safe to send their children to school. Isnotreal and United Stupid America murdered them deliberately.
I hope this war which USA started on Isnotreal says so is will be their Vietnam x1000.
Hoping that some good computer hackers release the unredacted Epstein files publicly.
Very daring with fireworks in Iran. The regime is far from dead yet
Confirmation !
The old devil is dead. This entire war is a fucking disaster, illegal and illegitimate, but absolute worst case is if the Islamic Republic survives intact at this point. Niccolo wrote a book people should have read concerning that.
Worst case is decades of civil war, factional violence and increased terrorism.
