True. True. Iran unravelling as a coherant state with a longer civil war, would be the worst case; as in Case Syria (which Iran knows only too well, it was after all the perpetrator)
In all likelyhood there is going to be some civil war in Iran regardless.
But regardless, irresponsible actors have decided to cast the dice. And when the dice is first cast, you better reach the strategic objective or the revanchism with nuclear weapon umbrella 20 years from now will be not so fun; for anyone.
I am certainly wondering about it:
I am asking the question, since this was a few hours ago:
(a “liberal”).
@Bekloppt This is what worries me and it worries me a lot, because I for one don*t want death and suffering to be for nothing. If the Islamic Republic survives, we know how it will react (i.e. how authoritarian regimes who are very repressive tends to react when the glue of it’s security apparatus melts, double down on repression).
And with a Trump who famously does not care about Iranian human lives, I really think this is rather realistic, given the lack of planning for a “Post-Islamic Republic” .
I am very pessimistic, but I suppose I am hopeful too. This is just happening in the worst way and for the wrong reasons…
To be judged in the morning
Yes and frankly, France, Germany, Switzerland et al, will not be in a rush to confront the dangerous and vindictive Trump and expend political capital over Iran this time around. Some actions have severe consequences, even if they arrive late. Legal or not legal, not my business to intervene as the Middle Easterners say about Ukraine while lauding and propping up the Kremlin.
For most of EUR, this is more a Pontius Pilatus hand washing moment. One does not support the war, but it happened, so US and their satelite ISR can deal with it short term for now. “Not my War!”, as MAGA says.
Of course, if it goes to shit (high chance given Trump), we are the ones as usual who will have to deal with the negative long term consequences (refugee floods, which again, drives our politics to the right). It’s shit, more shit or extreme shit. I hope for just passing shit…
Has Putin said anything yet so far?
It’s going to get dangerous as even in my region with 2 huge Muslim countries, there are people, even notable politicians framing this as a war against Islam and not Iran. This will just make martyrdom very attractive and easy to call upon.
Condemned it (the war) as illegal… with a straight face.
Well tell that to politicians like my ex President and Ilhan Omar. This war is reckless, ridiculous and illegal, further fueled by an American criminal’s ego. More innocent people are going to die. But then to frame this war as against Islam is just going to elevate this war to another level.
Tell it to Zelensky while you’re at it.
Sure.
I live in London in an area with a big Iranian community (Finchley). I’ve seen a few cars going around with the Iranian flag flying from the sides. Those are usually celebratory ones.
They are likely to be royalist exiles celebrating the downfall of the regime and hoping for a return of the royal family.
That’s just one of the factions who’ll be on the move. It’s going to be a huge mess as the US, typically, doesn’t seem to have made any plan for the succession.
Where have they said it’s a war on Islam?
Unless ‘about who they worship’ is not the Islamic Allah, I have nothing to say. And also, Iraq was attacked months before Ramadan so that’s another misinformation trying to stoke up religious flames.
Criminal Trump is abhorrent but trying to bring this to a religious level is going to harm even more innocents
Thanks.
I bet US banks, oil companies and a few others do though.
Of course.
And so has his genocidal nationalist prophet, who is whining about Russia having to restructure society into proper fascism or be next and jadajadajada. Nothing interesting really. Typical Russian stuff.
