So that guy inciting it, Abrahamovic-lite. Is it a power play with him intending to seize power after? Could this then be viewed a sort of coup?
And who is backing him?
Kazakstan is form Soviet, and usually these guys won’t make any major move without someone somewhere backing them and supporting them with finances/guns/information/tactical planning ect
Would the vote include who/what would replace the Queen as Head of State?
We have already established our own tradition of disastrously badly behaved luminaries as Governor-General, so I think it could be a fairly seamless transition.
No idea what the question would look like, but probably something like the G-G becoming the head of state.
Hard to say. There is so much popular anger, that while one oligarch is organising the protests from abroad (I think he is currently in France), he is just throwing fuel into the fire. I think it is wrong to view this as him orchestrating the event. Taking advantage of it, going along with it, and then trying to gain power from it ? That is more probable I think. For now, he is organising stuff on the internet and giving online aid to demonstrators.
Anyway, it’s quite ugly. Here is a scene of two National Guardsmen getting gunned down:
Also worth mentioning that the president of Khazakstan has promised to crush the rebellion in strongest way (that is almost a citation). I mention this because while police is surrendering enmasse and while National Guardsmen are getting savaged, mauled and taken prisoners (often joining the rebellion), the actual army has not yet entered the conflict and everyone wonders what the general staff will do.
I think Russia is too busy to intervene personally. As long as a pro-Western regime does not take hold there, Kreml will tear at their fading hairlines and grumble in resentment and annoyance, but do nothing as long as Khazakstan does not officially ask for military aid. And I don’t think they will do that really.
Intervening in Kazakhstan may force Kreml to shuffle it’s troops during a time when it wants to really not do that, as it is using them for intimidation or invasion-build up versus Ukraine.
Edit: as to who is backing this, many Western think tanks are cheerleading this and shouting hurrah, as is Ukraine of course, but no outside force can really spark such popular anger. If you are looking for reasons for the spark, you should look at the catastrophic increase in gas prices that came all too suddenly and a latent dissatisfaction with the regime in the population. But this would not have happened had gas prices not spiked dramatically.
Also ongoing rocket/drone attack against the Ain-al Assad base in Iraq. Last night, drone attacks against US personnel in Syria. Iran is flexing there. But it kind of pales in importance versus the above.
Demands of the protestors (assuming this is correct):
Point 3 would likely spark a military intervention from Russia, and due to Khazakstan’s geography, it would be bonkers for them to break with Russia. That won’t happen (or if it will, it would be suicidal I think).
Edit: Don’t misunderstand, I would very, very much like Khazakstanis to get rid of authoritarianism and get out of Kreml’s orbit, but I fear it would spark war. Khazakstan is located where it is located and it is a very large country and of paramount importance to Russia’s defence posture.
Taking a break from all of this to visit a friend. Hopefully there will be positive developments and not just worrying ones.
A civil-war or even a prolonged civil unrest in Kazakhstan is worrying since it will allow extremists to gain foothold.
Not to mention its large ethnic Russian population.
It’s basically the same. But yes. And yes to what you wrote first.
If it collapses completely we could be seeing another “Chechen war”. Maybe…
Edit: One of the most worrying aspects is that it could maybe make Kreml panic. I would really dislike the Siloviki to panic. Nothing good for humans could come from that.
Crimea all over again??
I remember when Timberlake sang about its river. Weird song topic but eh, decent tune.
Jesus! The President of Khazakstan has formally asked CSTO for military aid to “crush the terrorist threat” !!!
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Terrorist? Wow.
Yeah, this will get much more ugly now. While it is true that many rioters have been violent as well as armed, that is still a minority. I fear they will blanket designate all demonstrators and rioters as terrorists now 
The anti terrorist operation began hours ago:(
I fear we may never know how many died tonight.
Maybe it hasn’t begun for real yet:
Edit: salt needed in all such reporting. There is a fog when it comes to precise information.
Double edit: Note that some of the sources I am using are pro this and that and not objective. Focus on the information and videos, not spin.
Corpses coming into the morgue. Warning, graphic, do not press on this (the text marked as summary) if you are sensitive to such pictures. These are graphic pictures of slain people and shows both blood and bullet wounds.
Summary
It is pretty much confirmed this:
https://twitter.com/EdwardLemon3/status/1478845738939559940
Russia also marshalling forces at Orenburg. We are going to see a lot of Spetznas from CSTO countries go in as well as probably Russian paratroopers.
( )
They are already on their way.
For some strange reason unarmed National Guard are responding to mass riots/violence and are somehow “captured” by some small group of “protesters” on foot… Mmmm looks staged as hell. These guys came to protest → kazakhastan_guns
Interesting that a planned demonstration by the DVK founded by none other than the above mentioned oligarch, wanted (US/UK/RU/KZ) for stealing 4 billion dollars from his own people is found cheerleading what looks rather like the standard colour revolution run by our good friends the CIA… Demonstration Alert: U.S. Mission Kazakhstan December 16, 2021 - U.S. Embassy & Consulate in Kazakhstan
Unsurprising reaction from CSTO members, wouldn’t be surprised to see this bring China into the mix either considering the proximity to the Chinese border and the well known extremist groups operating there… Classic moronic US foreign policy “wonks” aka idiots, cheering it on…
It is chaos, it is not staged. A lot of the videos of National Gaurdsmen being beaten are from Tuesday and Wednesday, before the military cracked down last night. Many of the protestors are violent, some armed. All over the world, you see police personnel and tiny military units be surrounded and beaten by mobs in such scenarios.
If you think the CIA have the power to stage something of this size then you don’t understand the limitations of the CIA.The CIA is far from an almighty security service as many conspiracy theorists tends to believe. It has clear limitations when it comes to human resources. This was a popular uprising due to dramatically increased gas prices, that was the spark. Could they possibly be involved some how (the CIA), maybe even have reached out to this oligarch ? Yes, it is possible, but they are certainly not running the show.
I agree about the US morons cheering it on though. They cheer it just because it damages Russia by proxy and are easy to see through. Their ethics are highly questionable to say the least.
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I think a lot of people think that the USA is actually a lot more powerful than they really are, and that anything remotely advantageous to them has to be their doing, so naturally, something like this can’t be organic.
I think the more probable explanation is that there already exists the natural anger, and that the best the USA/CIA can do is just ride the tide and egg it on, rather than actually fomenting discord where there isn’t any.
I don’t think it’s in the interests of the USA to have Kazakhstan’s government fall though, it would probably only make Putin more paranoid and escalate things in Ukraine.
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