Why not? Get rid of the poster girl of democracy in Asia while having a regime who have no option but to do whatever you say. Looks like a win win for China. I doubt they directly ordered it, but they do stand to gain and are very likely to have given the green light. Their subsequent stance bears this out.
2 Likes
And an opportunity to needle the new US administration
Letâs make the naval build up work instead, so that the Royal Navyâs new carriers will not be OTT 
Because they have been building it up in an incredibly impressive pace the last decade in particular. Sooner or later they will rival the US Navy (will take quite some time to say the least) with tonnage and their weapon systems are getting better and better every 3-4 years. Defending Taiwan already seems impossible to due long range SAM and long range ship missiles, but very soon (another decade), China will have a navy that they can also project elsewhere in force. I have been following their destroyer and carrier build up with some interest the last decade, and every expert I have read seems to agree that it is fantastically impressive (and dangerous for the West).
Aung San Sui Kuy hasnât been a problem for China at all. She and her party held very limited power only.
If you by green light mean that China wonât stand against the coup, then sure, but itâs very unlikely to have been their idea. Kuyâs government have had to balance precariously domestically to avoid this kind of coup ever since they came to power. I also see no real gain for China. I donât see a real loss either, but China probably donât want them to close down the country again.
As for needling the US admin, China tends to try to avoid that when it is not in their great interest to do so. They never poke for no reason. What the US has to do with Burma anyway, I donât know. Not much imo.
Also, can we start calling them Burma again ? Countries accepted their new name of Myanmar when they became semi-democratic. Does not apply anymore, and imo we can at least punish them by refusing to call them Myanmar.
1 Like
Letâs hope that none of this military hardware ever gets used.
1 Like
Itâs her symbolic power rather than actual power thatâs important. I have repeatedly said that is probably a green light rather than a direct order and Iâve set out some of the reasons why itâs advantageous for them. There may well be others we donât know about, but certainly India is starting to feel threatened on a number of fronts and this will not make them feel more secure. The US has to do with everywhere, and will not like these developments.
As for needling the new administration, China has never before been in such a position of strength, and their actions re Taiwan seem to show that they very much want to test the resolve of the US
Yeah, but you should note that China and India, they have territorial disputes. So worst case scenario ends in war, same with Taiwan, just that Chinaâs Casus Belli is much stronger and has much more legitimacy when it comes to Taiwan. But Burma is a state that just isnât a problem for China, San Sui Kuy (I probably write her name wrong) was never a problem for them and her government was China-friendly.
But point taken.
Taiwan will go first, the sheer defensive value of that island to the mainland is huge. Luckily, mostly Chinese made gear is always shit, but theyâre made in huge numbers.
1 Like
Myanmar (Burma) borders India. Itâs had huge strategic value for a long time and was a major theatre in the Second World War. To think that the Chinese, or the US for that matter, are indifferent about it is unrealistic. Itâs about a tightening grip on the region, just as the US has influenced events in Latin America, so itâs quite normal to expect China to do the same in Asia.
1 Like
I read earlier yourself and @gasband talking through the cultural differences in understanding of what dmeocracy means and implies, and it was clear to me western and eastern differences are relative, principally to what is normative. Same goes with security, some westerners have had it so easy and secure for so long, they just dont see, and believe in official narratives, when the conduct flies in its face. Problem is that security is to me anyway going to slip large in the first half of this century. China will pick away here and there hoping to go unnoticed, Spratley and Paracel islands, Taiwan, North Korea with its maverick missiles pointed at the west, now Burma, a brewing dispute with Kyrgyzstan, border skirmishes with India, Iranian and Russian sympathies and only the BLIND could not see it. This water flows only one way and will go around the stone if needs be.
2 Likes
We are pretty good as far as perceived corruption is concerned, ranking 3rd most corruption free in the world by TI recently. In terms of crime, we are doing well on that front too especially on the violent crimes but crimes always do exist. But by and large, people feel safe, sometimes maybe too safe that some people lose sense of self awareness that crimes still do happen.
1 Like
In fairness you canât really compare a city state like Singapore to a country. The vast majority of the country I live in is perfectly safe including nearly all of the capital city.
1 Like
Agree, there are relative advantages of being a small island state.
2 Likes
Where do you live?
True, itâs easy to have law & order and good governance in a city (or a small geographical area) than in a larger area. But there are many small countries with rampant crime & corruption while larger countries have good law & order and good governance.
Crime and corruption solely depends on the quality and commitment of the politicians (specially those in power) since they are not just the causes but also the beneficiaries of lack of good law & order and good governance.
I live in Berlin, and honestly, I have always felt very safe here, and very free. I guess itâs one of the most open and tolerant cities in the world.
2 Likes
As I have already mentioned Myanmarâs military are less accommodating to China than Suu Kyiâs government would have been. Chinaâs stance is one of practical politics, not necessarily agreeing with what has happened.
[quote=âcraigjohnston, post:88, topic:1451â]
Itâs her symbolic power rather than actual power thatâs important. I have repeatedly said that is probably a green light rather than a direct order and Iâve set out some of the reasons why itâs advantageous for them.[/quote]
I donât think Suu Kyi has much symbolic power - most countries in SE Asia already profess to be âdemocraticâ, and her attitude toward the Rohingya has damaged her standing in the West. If anything that has probably made her more reliant on the Chinese than she perhaps would have liked In which case it doesnât make it likely that they would be happy in her being overthrown by a Military Junta that is less favourable to them and OK with being somewhat isolationist.
1 Like
Well, itâs all conjecture of course and weâll almost certainly never know the truth, but itâs unlikely that China would not take a close interest in events in Burma.
1 Like
Your kidding right? After the cuts the torries have made it is more like
1 Like
Cuts??? I read they have actually increased the budget.
1 Like