The club hierarchy seem to disagree. I’m not saying he is/will be good enough or not, but just from how much he plays, I don’t think they are as negative on him as many fans are.
It’s not easy to sell him, due to a massive fee we paid, a 6-year contract and not really impressing at all.
But at some point soon, if something doesn’t change (which so far isn’t, not enough at least), it’s bound to happen.
In the mean time, of course we use him in rotation, he has his strengths, but so far in his time here, he hasn’t cemented himself as a starter. And the reasons are obvious.
He’s into his 3rd season now. If he gets 4 and then we sell him with 2 years left on his deal, 4 seasons is more than enough time and chances. Even 3 is, but let’s say if he gets another one.
We all hope it works, but I don’t think it will.
When he joined, I wondered if a player like that could even work while Salah is here doing his thing. They even combined well, now that has also dropped.
I doubt if Salah left that Nunez would suddenly work. I think it would be basically the same, possibly even worse without Mo.
The structural change in midfield this season, playing with a #10, should be helpful for him, but I don’t see that it is.
Absolutely nothing personal, it’s not the first and not the last time we got a (big) transfer wrong. He can be happy with the fans’ support during all this time, but it seems like he’ll have to continue somewhere else. No drama.
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Is there one reason to be positive about Nunez’ Liverpool prospects, though? No matter what we write on football forums, we still want him to do well and crowd always makes it known that they are behind him. Yet, he has delivered so little and isn’t any closer to paying back that amount of trust.
I think he only plays so much because Slot realistically doesn’t have any other choice. Jota is doing his regular act of scoring regularly a few weeks and then spending two to three months out with an injury. Chiesa couldn’t be relied upon for fitness issues since joining and Danns, even though still in his teens, has also been out with an injury.
I’m pretty sure that we’re watching Nunez’ last season at Liverpool. I don’t see any realistic improvement in front of the goal, missing great chances is the only thing he’s been consistent about since joining. Klopp and our transfer chaps got it wrong - not for the first time or the last. Whether Slot can work around his issues until the end of the season is another challenge he’ll have to face.
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Given that our only other central forward seems to be Jota, and at a pinch Diaz, you would think that if the club thought he wouldn’t come good they would be looking to bring in replacements.
I think the other factors you raise are intriguing, but if I’m not wrong this season has seen a lot of tweaks to the way we play, even though the shape is largely the same. For example, we’re shooting a lot less as a whole, and I feel as though this has extended to him as well.
He’s no Salah, but his npXG + xAG seem to be really good, he just doesn’t translate them into the actual scoring numbers. I’m not sure if a system change will fix that in and of itself so much as getting some consistency with his finishing.
One thing’s for sure, his performance has plummeted this season in that regard. It’s quite interesting that for all the supposed being a one season wonder at Benfica, his npXG + xAG has actually carried over for the past two seasons.
That said, the numbers do back up my earlier hunch, that he’s just been shooting a lot less, at half the rate he used to shoot. That probably explains the halving of his xG figures.
For comparison, apart from this season, Salah’s shooting has actually been less accurate than Núñez in terms of being on target. For us, Núñez converts between 10-13% of his shots, while in all seasons bar his first season and the current season, Salah converts 12-14%. Not vastly different. Salah too is shooting less this season, but his conversion rate has become a lot more lethal. He’s still shooting 3x as much as Núñez is though.
Jota is supposed to be a great finisher, but his shots on target % is actually lower than Núñez, with the exception that he does convert a lot more of his shots on target.
Apart from last season (1.02) however his goals contribution per 90 (0.72, 0.73, 0.73, 0.87) has actually been rather consistent, albeit on a slightly higher level than Núñez (0.64, 0.84). On the other hand, Mané’s history with us reads: 0.73, 0.70, 0.67, 0.82, 0.58, 0.58. Firmino with 0.78, 0.53, 0.72, 0.62, 0.51, 0.51, 0.82, 1.11.
On newer forwards, we have Gakpo with 0.56, 0.71, and Díaz on 0.66, 0.54, 0.45.
What I’m saying is really that statistically he’s not far off from the rest of our forwards, but this season is not particularly good for us scoring goals in general. It’s easy to remember him missing sitters, being offside, seemingly just because he does so much in general. I think many comments after the previous 2 games were simply that he’s exhausting to play against just because he’s generally everywhere.
I’m not saying he was anything but shite against Newcastle, because let’s face it, it was a terrible performance. I just do think that the general hand-wringing about him is quite overblown.
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Of course we’d have to bring in someone if Nunez left, that goes without saying.
It’s only logical and responsible if we’re always, but especially since Nunez so far isn’t the success we thought/hoped he’d be, monitoring the striker market.
The shape has changed, now it’s the #10 or second striker who plays closest to the striker and that in theory should help him. Because there’s less pressure for him to link up play. He can really be a proper #9, like Torres was in a similar shape. I’m talking stylistically.
Jota is almost a perfect player as long as he’s happy to be within the first 15 players or so, but to be the club’s main striker without serious competition at least, I don’t think he can be relied on for that.
Diaz has showed some good stuff lately as he gets introduced to the central role. But long term, I don’t think our view has changed, he’s a left winger.
I don’t know whether Nunez shooting less in a so far less shooting team is positive or that there’s something much better in him waiting to be unleashed, if only he could shoot more. And then when he shoots more, it’s if only he could learn to finish calmly or with more accuracy. We’ve all seen him when he shoots more. More or less is not the key issue here, quality is.
Nobody is blocking him to do better than he is, I think he has very nice set of tools around him, a variety of qualities. Going into his 3rd season and 2nd coach here. And a club with a fanbase that is showing him almost constant support on the pitch, as it’s only right to do.
Being generally everywhere is also something that is not necessarily good. Again, connected to the guy’s overall quality. And he’s not been here since yesterday.
Why are we then trying different things like Gakpo up top as a new position under Klopp (not at all times, but you could see we didn’t have an outstanding option centrally), or Jota under Slot. The reasons are obvious.
Comments are happening all the time, that is also our right as fans between us, not only after certain games or defeats. If some don’t like to read it, perhaps it’s because the truth sometimes (or more often) isn’t the nicest. Especially when we’re having a great start to the season. Which he’s part of, but this discussion has been going on since he came.
We’ve seen Salah hitting top level from the day he came in.
With Firmino and Mane, it was less so, as we were of course also in the early-Klopp era. Sometimes these players need each other and a bit of time to grow into something top level. There was even a question when Salah came, could them 3 even play together. Not only they showed they could, but they grew into arguably the most cohesive front line of their time.
But with both Firmino and Mane, early enough in their firs I had the feeling that with them, we could create something top level. With Nunez, I don’t.
Nunez is not hopeless or without his strengths, I’ve seen worse strikers than him at the club, no doubt. Players who I didn’t even want us to buy, but more importantly, players who the club probably wanted to get rid of after even a few months or one full season. We’ve seen it.
But at some point not too far from now there, enough might be enough. There might be a conclusion that no, we tried our best, we tried different ways, but “useful and if only he could do a bit more x, he could become y”, is not satisfying us enough and it’s better to move onto someone else. And of course we cannot give Nunez the full 6 years of his contract here before making that decision.
He’s not too young, he’s not too old. He knows what it’s like to be a record signing, he was that at both Almeria and Benfica. Crazy rise in a short space of time, no doubt. Probably well earned. But in that crazy rise, perhaps being one of the main men at Liverpool is too much for him. No drama if that is so.
In the context of a top club that wants to remain at the top level, competitive and winning things, 3-4 seasons is more than enough time.
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I don’t think Jota being played centrally is new? Díaz certainly is, but it’s also because you realistically can’t keep playing Núñez all the time, it’s quite clearly rotation. If I remember correctly at the time, Gakpo was viewed as more stylistically similar to what Firmino offered, which was beneficial to us at the time.
They were also older. Salah came in at 25, having played top-level football for a few seasons prior to then. Mané and Firmino only started peaking around 2018, when they were 26 and 27 respectively. Suarez only started finishing his chances at 25 too. I don’t think not being Salah or Suarez is anything to be ashamed of.
That’s the thing, it’s a feeling there. I’m crossing threads again, but there are feelings, and there are observations, neither of which are truly independent of the other. I respect your view a lot because I can see where you’re coming from, and the whole comment about you hating him was really quite tongue-in-cheek, but you’ve been rather consistent about not seeing something top-level in him.
I think he’s got, as they say, the tools to be the top-class player he’s supposed to be. I just don’t know if he can actually put it together consistently.
I agree with you on the first point, but I don’t think we would actually move him on. I’m not sure there’s that much that we recoup from selling him that makes it worth that action.
Agreed.
I think I look at it more in terms of age, because for example, it’s Jürgen’s view that players really cross over from being youth players at 24. I think this is very much a situation where we were looking to cut out the middleman, the Southampton/Brighton, and try to take a chance on a younger player who was rawer, to try to develop ourselves as the potential meant that the cost would be prohibitively high if he was any more developed than he was. The only question is whether there’s enough there to keep persisting.
I think the numbers show there is. Apart from all the slagging off in the recent game, I think he’s just been quietly putting in 6 or 7/10 performances, even if he hasn’t scored. Apart from the City game, I can’t remember when was the last time he was offside either. I think the improvements are there, although obviously for many it won’t be fast enough to suggest a good trajectory.
You look at guys like Isak who are absolutely lethal in front of goal and then have to see Nunez.
I love Nunez and have defended him in the past. I have to come grudgingly to the Nunez out bit though.
I do hope he can prove the doubters wrong though.
It will be a shame if Nunez has to leave. There’s clearly a good player in Nunez. Just hasn’t worked out for us so far.
Funnily enough that comparison does illuminate something – his non-penalty expected goals is actually lower than Núñez (0.40, 0.62, 0.49 vs 0.62, 0.68, 0.30).
His shooting stats do suggest that it’s simply because he’s a much more efficient finisher, getting more of his shots on target
Darwin’s had incredible support from the fans. Far more than some players who are actually putting the ball in the net. We’ve all been desperate for him to do well but he’s had enough chances under different managers. At some point we’re gonna need a reliable goalscorer and have them up to speed for whenever Mo leaves or declines.
Would love to be proved wrong re Darwin though
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I’d love to see him upfront for us , he’d be phenomenal. He’s everything that Nunez is not ; an intelligent player with great close control who can finish.
Make them an offer they can’t refuse !
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Considering that I’ve just shown that the stats suggest that Núñez isn’t atypical of our forwards in general, I think that is a rather unnecessary comment.
EDIT: In any case, before more condescension arrives, he’s (Isak) not too far off Haaland in goals per shot:
Núñez isn’t far behind the latter’s npxG+xAG per 90 either (0.90, 0.95, 0.39 vs 0.92, 0.96, 0.88, with Isak far behind at 0.53, 0.77, 0.65). Isak’s performance in this regard may well be to do with the team around him though.
Haha @redalways
(This is how it works, right? 
)
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You need to compare goals per 90 to xg, Nunez is below whereas Isak is pretty much equal with xg and goals per 90, in other words he scores what he is expected to
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I think we all hoped and wanted/want Darwin to do well as we love his attitude and workrate?
But I like many I am starting to see him as a lost cause, we all have bad games, but he couldn’t even complete basic passes against Newcastle, he just seems to lack the technical skill and mindset tp be a success here.
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Jota centrally is not that new, but Jota as a single striker in our shape (which should be more suitable for Nunez) change is. There is rotation, but there is also the fact that Nunez has failed to make that spot his own, for good reasons.
If he was a success we thought/hoped he would be, at the age he’s been so far with us and physical capabilities, he’d have no issues starting much more games in a row than he did. Again, it’s down to quality and obvious reasons why this wasn’t so.
Stats are useful, but don’t tell the full pitcure and can also be used in many different ways. It’s not only finishing, xG’s, xA’s and offsides. There are also other aspects over a game of football.
Age can be comparable, but not all players are in the same place at the same time.
There’s a big difference between peak Mane and Firmino and Nunez who can’t really get going properly. Mane and Firmino didn’t go from players who weren’t starters on paper for a long time, in rotation at best and then suddenly peaked. They were better players even before their peaks.
Feelings or observations, we can use dozen amount of words, I’m not the only one.
More and more (not always though, some things we’ll never know), when I see these examples in football, it’s that no - players who apparently have all tools to be top players but something just isn’t clicking for them because of, what, “something in the air” (that might be a thing for a short period, but not for a few years) - all the tools actually aren’t there and that those tools, foundations or potential to be top are overrated (of a lower ceiling) in the first place.
I think the club would be open to sell, he doesn’t have to be put officially on the market (that’s not even how things should be done), but it’s not like it was or it’s easy to find a buyer for him. Another “Liverpool” in football is much less certain about him, observations or feelings wise, than the interested parties were before he joined us. But with 3 and then 2 years left on his deal, it will be decision time. I don’t care where he goes next, will wish him well.
We already know that we ain’t profiting from him (and we don’t have to profit financially from every player). Also, we’re talking about one of the spine positions. Value can be looked at differently. Have we won enough since he came? No. And he was one of the more problematic parts of that spine, not performing well enough.
Extra time spent with someone or not going sooner for a replacement can also cost money and (a lack of) success.
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I do agree, I think what the stats do show is that he’s a great player, he just needs to actually finish his goals well. His current actual goal contributions are already on the level of many of our recent forwards, but the frustration with him is that he has the potential for so much more.
That really is the essence of my argument. Everyone remembers the misses, the times when he does something bad, but if the actual performance metrics (as opposed to the underlying numbers) are already on par with good, if not great, players, then he could be so much better, but he currently is already a serviceable option.
The question is whether he can achieve that level consistently, in which case he really would be a world-class forward.
How often have we seen similar comments about the likes of Salah?
Whilst I agree with you, the simple fact is that we have all been saying “he just needs to finish the easy ones” for two years now.
His all-round play is excellent - when he’s in the mood, he’s unplayable - and he has scored some worldies, but he cannot be relied upon to stick his chances in the back of the net.
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And it’s not the only issue he has…
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