I don’t think a civil war in the manner of the ACW is a realistic possibility, but one wonders about which other patterns might be possible. Something like the fight for independence in Ireland? Someone did a really good topology this past summer, I will try to find it.
The essential idea is that the military could overwhelm any formal secession, but civil strife would probably not be on territorial divisions in the same way. The county map of the election results is fascinating - Biden won 78% of the economic activity of the country, with clear majorities in every single urban county (even Southern cities where the state as a whole was strongly GOP).
We have already seen the Lafayette (Indiana) Democratic Party offices shot up with semiautomatic weapons this week(Thursday, I recall). No one hurt, so it did not rate much attention compared to other events
Thats a good response; it could at worst evolve into something like that. It would still be otherworldy. And any such outbreak of armed violence, would to me, commence the process of the end of the 2nd amendment. But lots to happen before that could transpire.
I think the US authorities will now be looking to diffuse the situation and divert credence away from Trumpism.
We have already seen more than isolated incidents. Open civil war no but a high likelyhood of incidents of concerning magnetude. These could become very worrying depending on the level of ‘help’ the police give the gun touters.
A good number do not seem sane. Calls for killing, burning and dragging out by the hair are not uncommon. From there things can get out of hand if they haven’t already.
I assume you mean defuse there, rather than diffuse - although some of the steps might well lead to the latter?
I wonder about that. For some, there is a clear sense that the Rubicon was crossed, albeit mostly by cosplayers. But there is deep unease at what appear to have been steps taken since November to have the military do much more than they actually did.
I find it sort of amusing that due to Trump’s ridiculous Monuments executive order, every single charge can be subject to a ten year minimum sentence. That is one heck of a card for DAs to slap on the table for plea bargains.
Yes. There is a very real danger of it. Trump’s supprters see the world so differently form their opponents that there is hardly any common ground. They are rabid, deluded, weaponised and have a very aggressive militaristic culture. They may only constitute 20% of the population, but they will be emboldened by this weeks events and their next action will be worse. Worryingly, there are clearly Trumpists in the security forces and police as we saw at the riot. If there is not an effective response from the centre ground of US politics, we will only see more division and violence.
That’s not the actual chain of events. Gerald Ford was House Minority Leader in 1973 when Agnew resigned. Nixon selected him to take Agnew’s place, so Ford had been Vice President for some months before Nixon resigned; then the normal progression of Vice President to President occurred. I’m not aware of any instance in our history when the House Speaker assumed the presidency.
It is ironic in the context of Trumps Monuments Act. Whether I consider it overplayed in terms of accusations of criminality; charges will be put at their highest.
I do think there is a careful management decision to follow; the US must downplay Trump but overplay the events of 6th Jan. A tricky course to not inflame a rabid opposition.
Civil unrest certainly. The delusions that persist don’t go away merely because Twitter banned Trump and because Trump leaves office. The truth is both left and right are increasingly detached from pragmatic solutions. With all the stimulus spending, the stock market increasing even in this pandemic (just look at Tesla price) I fear a crash could come, economic hard times. What then? It’s very delicate in the U.S. just now.
Right, he was VP for about 8 months or so. Funny, in my mind it was much shorter than that.
I don’t think the Speaker has ever gone directly to the Presidency. I believe Polk is the only other person ever to have been both Speaker and President.
Foreign investors are decidedly skittish. The US stock market is the best game in town, no one can afford not to be playing right now, but nobody really understands why that would be. It has many of the properties of a bubble.
How can the incumbent state not be in power?
Even so the ones taking over are the enemies of the ones wanting a fight I can not see the new President or Senate being able to difuse the mood.
As for other institutions if the police are not reformed they seem very unlikely to difuse anything and it’s not really there job anyway (police these days are reactionary force to catch criminals).
I see a disenfranchised minority (but a large relatively wealthy and armed minority (20-25% of the voting public) getting more and more frustrated.
The economy and what these people win might be the deciding factor, who knows.
