I think it depends on what you mean by Civil War. Civil War , a well organised one, where large military forces side on Trump’s side, where they wear different uniforms and fight conventional war against each other, this I think is highly unlikely. Armed uprisings by militia groups lead by some military elements, that is much more likely I think (not that I think it will actually happen).
But I do not think large enough elements, say 50 000 + soldiers with ability to wage combined arms operations attacking the Federal state, is anything that can happen.
Of course, militia uprisings with some minor military elements(kind of a pathetic Civil War light) would cause untold and cataclysmic long term damage to the state, even if relatively quickly suppressed. But I think the likelihood of this is very, very slim. Then again, I didn’t expect the storming of the Capitol to succeed either, I had expected them to be kept out by security forces.
Not civil war, per se. But I fear some incidents like the Waco Siege.
There’s lots of guns and lots of madmen. Given the Capitol Hill Riot, I can see people taking over other administrative building, installations or even small towns.
Which our government is about to blow larger with another COVID stimulus, it seems. To me Tesla is the proxy (one might also say bitcoin). Tesla was just added to the S&P 500 (Dec. 21). Since it was added, it has gained 37%. There is no fundamental argument for Tesla’s stock price. What happens when the bubble (a good portion of which is invested in that stock) pops? Probably won’t happen in earnest until after the next stimulus, but the larger it grows…
I think this one will, but I agree it would be for the best, and that it would greatly damage MAGA, if he died naturally today. But I fear MAGA going away, is unrealistic. They have built a nationalistic myth and a cult around it and nationalistic myths take some time to deconstruct. And from my MAGA reading, they would probably follow his son Donald Jr. But it is hard to say.
I don’t want to stereotype, but I think this is more of a “culture thing”. People with an Asian background are often the first ones (or even the only ones) to clean everything up. We’ve seen it in football stadiums or other gatherings around the world. I don’t think he is doing this because of the cameras. They are just brought up that way.
Would be interested if Texas swings blue. It’s already increasingly voting democratic. Something like this with further urbanization would shift the state blue. Also need someone like stacy abrams running the show.
One of the most troubling things about the Trump tenure is that these are really unprecedented times for economic policy. There just isn’t anything like this scenario in the textbooks, barely even in research literature. Thought experiments of 18 months ago are policy now. Central banks and finance ministries are facing real intellectual challenges and enormous uncertainty. Yet the past four years have seen a systematic weakening of capacity within the US state.
De-escalation is fair enough the question is how to go about it?
A video above with Bernie Sanders outlines one path however that’s just bringing the ‘poor’ back into the fold as it were. These aren’t the people we are talking about imo. I reckon anything the Dems do will be demonised by the ‘hard core’ and possibly push them further down the road they are taking.
Some states could end up struggling to contain the reactions of these people. We could see harrassement of ‘incumbent’ officials become lynchings more demonstartions that turn violent more counter demonstrations where guns are seen. The pressure is on local government and local police and they just haven’t shown that they are capable in recent times.
A civil war in the 21st century will not involve armies in different uniforms facing off in neat battle lines. It will be a messy guerrilla war involving terrorism and cyber hacking. The US is already on that path. This was a disorganised rabble, but it still penetrated the most secure and hallowed house of government. Next time they’ll be back with better organisation and more weapons. Deescalation sounds sensible, appeasement less so, and the incoming administration are going to have to walk a tightrope.
In the US in the foreseeable future maybe. In the world, conventional civil wars are absolutely still events that happen and will happen. It is not that long ago the Balkans broke asunder in conflagration of competing nationalisms, and it doesn’t have to be ethnic nationalisms that sparks it, it could be other ideologies though nationalisms are by far the most dangerous ones.
As for neat battle lines, that is pre World War 1. But I guess you meant US and not the world.
But I agree that your version of Civil War “light” is the only Civil War that is currently plausible in the US.
Again, anyone who thinks Trumpism is going away magically, I fear you are misreading the sociopolitical situation. This is deep rooted now and like others have said in this thread , it didn’t start with Trump, his iceberg is just the one you see above the ocean because it reached a critical mass of “horrible”. But it goes deep.
Some of my geopol sources are now full of spin on “the illiberal fascism” of the neoliberals and the “fascist censorship” and yada-yada-yada, and this spin is broadcast to MAGA and far beyond. Much of it is coming from Glen Greenwood types and the anti-intellectual American and International Far Left, such as for instance this guy as an example:
And they will build a massive myth around this, mark my words. Conspiratorial Far Left and Conspiratorial Far Right have joined forces over this, as well as spin doctors hostile to the West from abroad, and this is far from over. So yeah, no reason to celebrate, I am not even sure if de-platforming the Trumpists was even wise long-term, but not sure about that, other than that I will use the word time will tell.
It’s just words they use, few in the target group cares about correct definitions. They are using words such as communist fascist after all, it is just words for effect.
