Just the next step in the two sides increasingly having their own portals which favor their own view of the world. Two, increasingly disconnected realities stoked by social media.
On this concept of Civil War:
First, I remember reading a few reporters at modern civil wars who noted “collapse isn’t evenly distributed.” Most of the elite see life go on almost normally while armed militias battle all around them. Are we seeing that now? I don’t know. The citizens of DC would say so. We probably won’t know until much later.
Second, I tend to see civil war as a slow burn. Look at Rome: it wasn’t built in a day and it wasn’t torn down in a day. Where do you want to lay down a marker for the beginning of a Civil War? This insurrection at the Capitol? The elections of 2016 and 2020? Heck, the right wing might say 2008? The protests against police for broken social contracts? Why not the horrendous bombings of Tulsa and Rosewood? I don’t think you’ll ever find a single event.
Third, sadly, I worry that all the combustible ingredients of the 1860s may be present today: rampant income inequality, increasing racism, voter suppression, shrinking middle ground, an growing focus on red versus blue states, self-interest in a sustained status quo, and the growing demands for religion to have a role in state. Of course, there is the pandemic on top of all.
I know there was some discussion of whether or not Trump incited the sedetionists to enter the Capitol. It’s irrelevant other than for his personal liability. He knows he could have never controlled events after he lit the fuse. Ancient Rome was living proof with riots at state buildings ending in bloodshed. They even involved senators and we had legislators leading rioters at the Capitol—forget Hawley and Cruz; there were state legislators in that mob.
It’s academic to try and determine the starting point. It’s a long, extended one. I am worried. But I’m hopeful that our democracy has matured since the 1860s and will hold. I know there are many criticisms of my country right now, but many of its principles are good ones. I hope they survive this test over the next decades or centuries.
Slowly but surely, people are getting arrested. Now 2 policemen from Seattle have been arrested for having participated failed insurrection.
Whatever happens, you can be sure it won’t bear any resemblance to the 1860s. It won’t even resemble anything we’ve seen recently, like Syria or Libya. This conflict, if it is not avoided, will take place in a prosperous, highly weaponised society, and will involve conflict in arenas like cyberspace. The role of outside forces should also be taken into account. It’s quite possible, maybe even probable that the Russians have already played a part in destabilising the US, and it would be surprising if the Chinese, who have much greater resources, are far behind.
I agree with the vast majority of what you wrote, almost everything. Although a historian would describe segments of what you wrote as “events leading up to the Civil War”, which is maybe semantic for some but has distinctions to historians and political scientists. It is the same with normal wars, you could argue that those start when two states start arguing over something, but most such disputes do not actually lead to actual war, while a few do.
At current, one cannot say with certainty if the current events will lead to actual wide scale conflagration, or if the events of the Capital storming was the worst, or if worse is to come. We do not know this now. We only have hopes, fears and predictions.
Sorry if you find me a bore, I didn’t mean to dissect your post, just explain why I think technicalities matters a bit.
I can certainly see Russia throwing in some social media bombs here and there.
If this does escalate I wonder if people will regret the right to bear arms that sections of the US seem so keen to protect.
Well, half of them will regret it, and the other half will see it as a justification
I have had friends opposed to gun ownership wonder if they should buy guns.
I refuse to do it, but that’s just me (I don’t mean to derail the topic too).
@Magnus that’s an odd post because I’m the only one here who doesn’t think you are a bore.
You haven’t. I think we could see a real test on whether this is a good idea. It isn’t IMO.
Stop scaring me. I’m already worrying about United.
That’s just because they have been unfortunate to only meet my forum persona and not my singing party persona 
@SBYM can you even believe this!
I think your analogy is in the correct direction @Alright_Now. But, of course, each situation is unique. Rome had a professional army subsidized by land grants and ultimately outsourced to others. The United States has the world’s most powerful professional army tethered to a currency which itself is only as good as the underlying economy. Civil War? It would be one refereed by that professional army, who might, in modern parlance, decide to step in when the civil government fails to stem the instability. And what if that currency essentially fails? What does that army do? Not to get back to my financial doom and gloom scenario, but we are living through a long moment when stimulus begets more and bigger stimulus. I think the 2009 package was $800B. Just last year Congress passed $2.3T and $900B without an eyeblink, and the new administration will look for another at least $1T to $2T plan. Perhaps it doesn’t matter if the Federal Reserve is willing to buy most of that debt. We’ll see.
It’s going to be a wild ride soon. The damage Trump did when he broke the pact, giving Iran the moral high ground, is difficult to overstate imo.
From Elijah, who is incredibly well informed in regards to Hezbollah, Lebanon and Iran. However, he is biased in their favour too. But there is a reason why Israeli journalists tend to follow him. He has very good sources within the so called “Resistance”.
There’s going to be a lot of posturing and bluster to test Biden’s boundaries. We’ve seen it with N Korea already.
MSNBC just showed a 60 Minutes excerpt with Pelosi saying the 25th is not off the table. It was short and I don’t have a sense of her conviction level around that particular angle.
She is very clearly very worried. Who knows what she knows. Scary.
It has not as much with the election to do as some think, though the election plays a role in what they say of course (The North Korea bit).
This was always coming, it is the DPRK 8th Party Congress. That’s why this is in the news now, not just because of the US election:
And they are just saying the usual stuff, although Kim Jong Un’s wish list of new weapons was pretty big, so we know where their money is being fueled.
But every DPKR party congress, major announcements are usually made in the security realm:
Arms Wishlist: "On nuclear forces and missile force modernization, talk of:
- longer-range missiles
- better missiles
- hypersonic missile
- military reconnaissance satellites
- solid-fuel ICBMs
- new UAVs
- new nuclear warheads
- tactical nuclear weapons"
https://twitter.com/nktpnd/status/1347672551053524994
If you are interested then several professors I sometimes read and look to for information specialice in nukes and North Korea:
https://twitter.com/nktpnd
https://twitter.com/ArmsControlWonk
https://twitter.com/NarangVipin
https://twitter.com/Joshua_Pollack
https://twitter.com/DaveSchmerler
https://twitter.com/Robert_E_Kelly
As for Iran, the latest is not news. Khamenei has been saying variations of this since the election. The problem here is that Iran has the moral high ground on the matter, but Biden will be very hard pressed politically (domestically in the US) to accede to Iranian demands, so trouble (because of Trump’s pact trashing)
It’s not the insurrection at the Capitol Hill. It’s not the BLM Movement. Because neither of it, or any other events in the past, has started a chain of armed conflicts.
Good morning 