He’s back!!!
4 Likes
That was one hell of a long pit stop…
5 Likes
Not that wrong. A couple of state level outliers, but this is not a scenario that 538 was suggesting was unlikely - very tight in some key states. He even had what is now a very likely map posted a week ago.
3 Likes
BBC says 12k
1 Like
I think that is the old gap.
Nearly 10k is what I see atm
1 Like
My beloved Maine Blackbears, who I have never seen play, should never be disrespected in such a way.
4 Likes
Black Bears, please
7 Likes
Most of them were wrong according to what I have seen and read and the hope that Americans were better than Trump, that they would repudiate Trump and punish the GOP, all of that has evaporated. This is not at all an election where Trumpism is relegated to the scrapyard of history, Trumpism will live on, GOP won’t change, election result too narrow for that. And without the senate, little will change.
But it’s probably within the margin of error, despite polls having priced in a Trump lean this time.
If 538 was right, then good for them though.
If I was living in New York or on the West coast, I’d definitely support any movement trying to break away from that shit show.
2 Likes
Yeah, ABC and CNN says 10k
2 Likes
Come on Michigan! 
4 Likes
Would need few other too. Nevada can flip anytime.
16k is what I see.
1 Like
538 had an 80% probability of Biden winning, but a heckuva lot of the scenarios looked a lot like this. The one thing he was saying was that a landslide would come about only by every state breaking one way, and that very few scenarios played out that way - the basic method aggregates polls and uses them to seed a Monte Carlo level analysis.
The polls that were the most wrong were national level voter intention, and even those are proving not that wrong. More people will have voted for Biden than any president in history. But those national level polls are worthless, because they fail to capture the state effect. Running up the score in California doesn’t get you any closer to the Presidency.
4 Likes
3 Likes
We still need to keep an eye on Nevada. What’s happening there?
Won’t know until tomorrow night UK time.
2 Likes
So if results go the way they are expected to now then it’s actually a very good showing by Biden with the obvious exception of Florida, which is getting very close to just being a Red State at this point.
Maybe he could have done better in Ohio or North Carolina but other than that he’s largely won everything available, and with a higher total vote count than any other President.
The issue is the Senate is a mess.
We will likely see Democrats berate Biden for a narrow win but in my eyes he’s done quite well against expectations (if everything plays out as it appears to be doing so).
4 Likes
It was never going to be a landslide election. I think some of the “Americans are shit because this many people voted for Trump” and Trumpism will live on comments are a tad simplistic.
Establishment GOP doesn’t actually like Trump. They’ve had to tolerate him the last 4 years. I believe we will see more compromise and progress in the next 4 years than we did in the previous 4. Joe, Nancy, and Mitch are seasoned political professionals and I believe Joe can get everyone to the table.
As an American, it is a little tough hearing how we’ve lost the bit because a large chunk of people voted for the sitting President. Economic security vs Health security weighs pretty heavily with some of the demographics that polling sites got wrong. Trump did better than expected in certain low income areas. One hypothesis out there is because in these regions, individuals need hourly jobs to pay rent and put food on the table. They simply voted based on what they believed would be best for their survival, which in their minds was who would keep the economy open. We need to provide a better safety net so people don’t feel this fight or flight reaction.
I am not saying Covid isn’t serious (I’ve had it twice and both times have been pretty rough compared to the average flu), but I am saying that don’t punish good people for feeling forced into a decision that they evaluated would be best for their survival. Our system clearly needs some overhaul, but ultimately these results hold it shows that both parties need to reach across the aisle and see a difference perspective every now and then. Higher educated, predominantly white collar suburbs are going to be what won this election. Both parties need to look past the suburbs and really evaluate are we doing what’s best of the country…
Sorry. Rant over
5 Likes