As expected…
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Prior to last night, there was a very real hope, even expectation by many but certainly an incredibly strong hope, that Trump would be repudiated. Now it is clear that without nuclear war, 45% of Americans will still stick by Trump and it doesn’t matter what he does or says. It has massive implications, none of them positive. No one can ever trust the US ever again. The risk would be much too high, their society too deeply damaged.
So while the narrow Biden win was the result I assumed due to having a pessimistic view on the state of the US, I had hope before the counting started. This is just very bad and has grave implications. That Trump can be so close is incredibly dangerous for the future.
America is now a banana republic in many ways.
It is never fun to have your prejudices and worst fears turn into reality.
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If Senate is 47 - 47 how does that work - does the President then have power of Tie Break in votes?
The Vice President is the president of the Senate
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Should Biden win, one thing is clear imo, Trump will never admit that he lost. He will of course claim that the victory was stolen from him etc.
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Where are we on the popular vote as it stands? Trying to see if that’s covered by the BBC.
Edit: Guardian has Biden 2.5m up (69.5m to 67m).
Michigan Pale Blue on my map (at last). It’s over for you Trumpy got suck money from a stone!
USA, USA …
Still 9k for Joe
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Guardian seems to be more up to date
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2020/nov/03/us-election-2020-live-results-donald-trump-joe-biden-who-won-presidential-republican-democrat
Puts Biden 16k up in Michigan.
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Magnus I enjoy your contribution to this community since I’ve been here for a couple years now mostly reading and occasionally posting.
Take a deep breath. It is going to be ok. 45% of people didn’t vote for Trump. There’s 100,000,000 different reasons as to why they made a decision, but we are not past the point of no return.
Don’t give up. We aren’t here either.
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36k with 96% counted
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Honestly, it really is anyway. I think the (relatively) recent Clinton and Obama wins have given the impression of a far more purple state than it is in reality. Those are both presidents who put together coalitions that were unique to them and not ones owned by their party. Outside of that, when left to standard party politics, the state goes for Republicans with only rare exceptions.
Agreed. I think one of the issues is it is easy to interpret a model with high confidence of a certain result as a result won by a landslide, but they are not the same thing. As you say, that 80% probably included a majority of scenarios exactly as we’re seeing, which was always the most likely outcome. We’re now experiencing what most data analysts would assume would happen - a Red Mirage with very strong signals of a blue shift. It was highlighted as the likely outcome. The warning to over interpret the election night totals were incessant and waking up today and seeing a lot of the overnight interpretations, it seems that was thrown out the window by about 9pm est.
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Roughly Biden +2, with no chance of Trump catching up much, as there are loads of uncounted votes in places like CA and NY that don’t really matter otherwise.
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It’s all about Nevada baby.
If Biden wins it, he wins the race with 270 electoral votes.
If Trump wins it, he wins the race with 274 electoral votes.
I think that is a fair point in theory, but I think it misses in reality what has really happened with the Trump Covid voters. They didnt make their decisions because they made a calculated evaluation of public/personal health vs economic necessity. Instead, the exit polls show that about half the country believe Covid isnt a big deal and is something we’ve turned the corner on. this correlates very well with Trump support.
So now I’m being led to believe that the Covid pandemic was actually a disadvantage to Biden? Ok…
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Maybe most of the over 200,000 who have died from covid in the USA were Republicans? Makes sense. They should have posted their vote!
Actually, what if someone does die after they’ve posted their vote but before election night? Does it still count?