War with Russia is not relevant, that is not what anyone thinks the US needs to commit to. Military sanctions are not very relevant to discuss since those are unreasonable and no one wants them, not even Ukraine.
Russia would assume the US would do something like that anyway (support Ukrainian insurgents), it carries zero weight but it does make the US seem needlessly diplomatically weak visa vi Russia, who has put forth a series of rather unreasonable demands. Unseasonable, but it would be folly to completely discard them as that would play into Kreml’s strategy. Some of the articles are actually not so unreasonable although so NATO (US) could at least highlight those who they could negotiate about, while starkly dismiss the highly unreasonable non-starter ones.
Well, if you think I am stupid to think it a a bizarre media leak and that it betrays a weak negotiating stance and lack of apparent strategy to leak something like that, then feel free to think so. What possible positive agenda would this media leak serve for the US ? It’s not an actual deterrent.
It is an extreme measure, short of war. It signals the US is contemplating extreme measures. After the 2020 Russian hacking, cyberattacks are on the table. The US may be contemplating measures like shutting down the Russian electrical grid, but is unwilling to make that explicit.
Nah, an opinion column in the Washington Post that is a series of factual assertions may as well be headline with LEAK: - it is a time-honored way of getting problematic positions out while leaving plausible deniability, and fairly low cost course changes.
Hmm, I think it is odd that they communicate this. There is still a lot of options the US can take, including military aid, threat of severe economic sanctions and so much more. Besides, you ignore the psychological effect that this has in Ukraine. They don’ want to wage guerilla warfare amongst civilians and this sounds more like the US admin is out of ideas. If the US really think the danger is now Very High, like today’s travel advice shows (as well as the unfortunate meteorological forecast with clear skies and frozen earth at the end of this week), then need to at least talk to the Russians concerning their unreasonable proposals or, if they are unwilling to even contemplate that (Russians says it’s negotiable, it is impossible to know if they lie and play for time or not), then they need to do as promised and give Ukraine military aid ASAP and clearly establish the economic sanctions on the table if Russia moves. Failing this, the US will have been all bluster visa vi Russia.
The “initiate guerrilla war inside Ukraine after Russia has won” is not a serious offer to Ukraine and it is very doubtful, I think at least, it would change a Russian calculus. And what we need now, is to change their calculus if “we” really think they are serious.
It is very common. In political Science circles, the Washington Post is sometimes called “The Empire Speaks”, as a joke. The US always does this, tests the waters, so they don’t need to say it officially to their adversary but let their adversary know even so.
I live in Norway, I have Russian friends, know some Ukrainian people; I am personally very worried as to where this will go. If they move, a hell of a lot of valuable human beings will die, others maimed. Life will become terribly difficult for Russians and Ukrainians and to make things worse, there would be the danger of escalation.
I just hope the US commits to previous promises. And I hope Ukraine would not need too compromise too much in terms of sovereignty and territorial integrity in the event of a negotiated settlement. Because now, Russia is refusing to negotiate with Europeans, it blocks anyone but the US in further talks, so it is in the US that one must trust. And I don’t have much faith in the US personally after the Afghan withdrawal. But even so, they are realistically the player here (along with Germany and Nordstream 2, but I have 0 faith in the Germans here as they need the gas ).
I am worried, because I can’t deduce if this is escalate to deescalate (by Kreml) and so a ruse, or if it’s real. If it’s real it would be absolutely awful in an epic way.
It’s absolutely real. The loss of Ukraine was an economic loss to the “Russia empire”, on a scale that its almost a psychic pain. I have no doubt this end game is the main reason Putin has taken such an interest in US domestic politics - attempting to create a foe so distracted and weakened that the opposition they could raise to Russian excursions would be limited. Even if they decide against escalation now, wait until the next US election. Putin will bide his time.
I would tend to agree. However, there are clear cons for Russia to attack as well, so the possibility still remains that this is an “escalate tensions to force adversary to accept some of our constructed demands” etc. And yet, they release impossible demands, claims only willingness to negotiate directly with the USA, puts their army on war footing, escalates internal propaganda massively in the Russian media sphere; all very unfavourable and troubling signs.
I just hope for the best but I am very worried for my Russian friends, for the Ukrainian people who will suffer tremendously, and for the possibility of a Black Swan unwanted escalation event (could be all sorts of miscalculations when armed forces, including air defence, are on high alert) that could potentially derail into something even more horrible if they actually invade.
So yeah, I am fervently hoping this is one of Mr. Putin’s favorite tactics to force concessions from adversaries, brinkmanship with Hard Power. But the signs are very troubling. Very, very troubling.
Putin would be well-advised to watch ‘Wag the Dog’ at this point. After Manchin’s ‘no’, Biden has no room to back down. I doubt the White House can deliver more than about ~100 votes in the House now. After having talked the left into separating the infrastructure bill out, he has not delivered. The House Dem left won’t let that happen again, they will wait for the Manchins of the world to commit, then veto if they don’t get what they want. That is an impossibly weak position for a President. I genuinely struggle to think of a comparison. Obama , Bush Jr., and Clinton all faced their final two years with a hostile majority in both chambers, but this is worse. Biden can no longer deliver his own party. He has absolutely no room for compromise, and every incentive to call Putin’s bluff.
, who’s next 
