I’ve probably asked this before, but I’ll ask again, because it’s of grave concern.
Is there any sign that the Democrats will be able to field a viable candidate in the next presidential election?
Would love to hear a positive answer from any of our stateside reds @Limiescouse @RedOverTheWater
Frankly, before the midterms is never a good time to assess that. If the Democrats have a moderately successful November showing, however that is defined, Kamala Harris will be in a very strong position. If they don’t, Harris is probably on the outside looking in. Of course, all of that presumes Biden doesn’t run again.
Characteristically, the field starts to be defined over the six months following the midterms. Bill Clinton only announced in October 1991, and was in 4th place. He wasn’t seen as a strong contender until he came through NH surprisingly well. The cycle has grown a little longer - but when Obama announced in February 2007, after a few months of rumours and a January 2007 teaser, he was well behind Hillary Clinton
Biden ran on a platform of being a bridge to the next generation and the perfect antidote to Trump candidacy. The interpretation was that meant he was running to be a one term president, but we have since realized he never actually said that. He was content to let everyone believe it and has tried hard while in the Whitehouse to not have the issue be addressed.
When pushed, the official position is he will stand for election again, but I suspect they just conscious of the effect having a lame duck president would have on the midterms. I expect that at sometime soon after November, he will announce his plans to not seek renomination. As Arminius says, Harris is the obvious candidate, but that is partly dependent on results this November. And also ignores her historically bad performance last time out - went in with the most money and was out before the first vote was cast in the nomination process. There also isnt a great history of VP’s getting a bump from that role.
Outside of her, the race is likely to focus on the same bunch of candidates Biden beat last time out. 2 possible new candidates though are Warnock and Abrams both on the ballot in Georgia in these midterms. Wins for either in what will be a really key state in 2024 will really bolster their appeal, and both are exactly the sort of personality the party would be inclined to get behind.
This cycle feels very much like one where a Democratic governor will emerge as a very likely candidate. I could see either Beshear or Cooper trying to reforge the (Bill) Clinton coalition. I think Cooper would be a very interesting candidate.
Speaking of politics…the SCROTUS everyone!!
Initially, I legit thought I was reading something from the 1920s…
Apparently Harris is very unpopular, although I don’t know why .
Agreed. City Mayor is seemingly too small a job as a stepping stone, but Landru from New Orleans has always felt like he was positioning himself for this sort of run as well.
She’s a black woman. That puts her on the wrong side of a large tranche of voters. However, she is actually very moderate in most of her policy views, enough to alienate a large tranche of the left. So in straight approval/disapproval polls, she has not fared well. Maybe half of the 55% unfavourable would not like her under any condition, due to race/sex, but people like AOC are not fond of her either.
However, in pairwise comparisons, she actually tends to come out reasonably well.
Combination of stuff, but you cannot look past the fact she is a talented woman in a position of power who will not tolerate lesser men expecting her to know her place. She faces a lot of the same uphill challenges that saw Hillary have such high unfavourables.
It’s even more complex for her because she is black, but not black enough for some (because she is half indian), but acts too black for others. There are issues with the liberal wing because of her past as a prosecutor, although most of the attacks there are fox news style distortions, but the way these attacks position her create additional complex racial interactive effects (a black prosecutor willing to get ahead by putting black men in jail for weed).
She’s like a candidate invented in a lab to appeal to the broad coalition of the Democratic Party, but instead of perfectly threading the needle by appealing to a wide base of different constituencies, every one of them has reason to distrust her. And that illustrates the difficulty of bringing such a broad party together.
It also has to be pointed out that she has also at times had a team around her that has not served her well. It has developed a social media following that is as unpleasant to encounter as the Bernie Bros, and that will always rub off on how people view the candidate. But it also resulted in internecine conflicts within the party and I think that meant the press have had hatchet pieces fed to them by the party insiders they have crossed.
My take is Biden is waiting for the right time to say he won’t be standing for another term. It definitely won’t be before the midterms. My guess would be Spring to Summer 2023. Also, if he delays it a bit, it will give some time to see what sort of options bubble up on the Republican side.
Kamala Harris is the presumed next in line, if and when Biden announces he will not be running for a second term. Harris is quite capable, but America is a weird old place - racism and sexism seem a lot more rife than back home in the UK, so she will have plenty of opposition. She will also have plenty of internal opposition as the Democrats are a broad tent, so she won’t unite everyone.
Stacy Abrams in Georgia is very capable and I like her a lot, but she will have racist and sexist hurdles to overcome too.
Switching gears slightly, but the Constitution says you have to be minimum age 35 to be the President. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez will turn 35 in October 2024, before the Presidential vote in November 2024.
She is charismatic, well spoken, photogenic, principled and so on and so forth. Racism and sexism issues will still affect her, but I’m not sure to the same degree as the other women I mentioned.
She represents the left wing of the Democrat Party, and my view is that at some point, since even moderate or centrist Democrats are vilified as being extremist socialists (when they are no such thing) there is an argument to be had as to how to run the country. AOC could easily lead the charge in getting that argument across.
As it happens Millennials in America are a lot more amenable to the sort of policies that pass as standard fare in Western Europe. Millennials are the biggest generation by population. AOC could be their champion, and America could change in some fundamental ways. Health. Education. LGBTQ rights. Women’s rights. Gun reform. Climate policies. Environment. Lifting the poor. Still pro business, but more compassionate with it.
It will be fascinating to see how it all pans out.
Agreed. Even if the fear is she may not win, I think it’s important for the Democrats to reset the political landscape - AOC can move the needle in '24 and make these policies big vote winners by '28.
I like AOC too, but I’d like to see her in a more senior position before she runs for president. She’s very young and inexperienced at the moment, but if she could have a successful stint as mayor or governor, she could be an option a couple of cycles down the line.
Don’t know much about Cooper, but he seems to tick quite a few boxes.
I would assume it will be Kamala Harris who will run, and Biden will step down.
Then another Republican cycle, before the likes of AOC come to the fore.
That’s my best guess.
Presuming the next Republican candidate will either Trump or, at least, an ardent Trumpist, what are the chances of the electoral system surviving a Republican presidency?
Biden turned 80 the other day. He was already being lampooned by the right for being cognitively impaired and I think that’s had a drag on his numbers. I don’t think it’s a good idea for him to run again but I’ve seen nothing to suggest so far that he won’t.
As much as I like Kamala , I think she’s been a disappointment. Especially in one on ones where she has shown an inability to think on her feet. If you thought the press coverage Hillary got was undeserved , cruel and personal then pause to imagine just how bad it could get for Harris. America isn’t ready yet for a female President , and I don’t see any chance of her winning.
I think it was limiescouse who mentioned Ralph Warnock and that sounds like a very solid shout to me. I can remember another black guy from recent history who was erudite , personable and a fine orator and he didn’t do too bad.
Thought it was funny years ago, but at this point there might be a good argument for going with The Rock?
I don’t think Warnock has anywhere near the experience yet, he has only been in the Senate for two years and has not even had a heavyweight committee assignment. Obama had state-level experience than Warnock does not.
The Rock was on the news last night, and they asked him a serious question if he would run. Apparently he would have a lot of votes.
He spoke well, but said his priorities now are his two daughters, ages 4 and 6. He said he had worked hard to provide stability - he didn’t have that as a child, and when he was wrestling he would be gone 200+ nights. So he said he said his number one job right now is daddy, and he enjoys taking them to school and so on.
He did slightly leave the door ajar for the future though.
I think it will survive, but the question is to what degree will it be damaged.
With gerrymandering, packing the courts, and also a big case before the Supreme Court now on giving individual states more rights in determining the result of the election, the situation is serious.
(I can’t remember the name of the case, but I read an excellent piece on it the other day, and the author was saying that it is largely going under the radar, but it will have massive implications for elections going forward, if passed, and essentially it was saying the Republicans could massively title things in their direction with this).
There are two right now. Moore v. Harper (NC) would put state legislatures in indisputable control of their electoral laws, not subject to state courts. The Alabama case attacks the review of electoral maps, specifically a test under the Voting Rights Act regarding minority representation.