Between the ambush of Zelensky, China’s blunt resistance, and the two elections in Australia and Canada, I think Trump has now absolutely painted himself into a corner with the tariff fight. The two elections firmly establish that being seen to be aligned with Trump is a political millstone, and that presumably is true in China as well, just not at the ballot box. China’s unwillingness to open the negotiation on Trump’s terms sets it up as a longer-term standoff. The deliberate humiliation of Zelensky and Trump’s other rhetoric around ‘setting the terms’ means that any country that makes a deal with the US faces a huge first mover disadvantage. Trump will celebrate it as a surrender and an American triumph, no matter what the terms actually are. The pressure to deliver means that the first deal will likely be on worse terms than subsequent ones. As such, any head of state that agrees to terms with Trump faces a bad deal, ritual humiliation, and likely a political firestorm at home. No wonder the Americans are getting nowhere.
In a very directly related vein, Trump has suggested Carney will be visiting the White House soon. With Trump’s comments over the weekend, there will likely be ongoing scheduling difficulties.
