I know I have written about this before, used different words than good Jeff here. Still, he writes it well so I don’t have to.
Because this is why we are in a critical bind. We have no weapons to replace the American ones, which critically forces us to continue to buy from the US. So the ride forward, watching EUR loath and hate the US while bowing and scraping at the same time; might continue.
The alternative is Russian victory that will set up the next war. And in the next war, the US might not be on our side or even in NATO (possibly:
https://x.com/Jeff21461/status/2013630177427726468
Because we in Europe have in fact failed the test of the Russian invasion. We did not handle it. We did not start rearming at once in 2022. It took years of continued Russian malevolence, so BECAUSE we did not step up (which I and many prayed for for years) we now have no freedom of navigation. A trade war with the US over Greenland ? Might work. However, Trump’s trump card will remain what it is. And what is it you may ask ?
It’s the threat of stopping arms sales to European states that then donate them to UKR, at which point we must fold if he pulls out that card.
That is the true card the US has, which we gave them by reacting too slowly to Russia.
It’s sad, but it is also undeniably true (not saying it would have been politically easy to step up and start rearmamment years earlier, but little was in fact done and the threat of the US going hostile, was not taken seriously).
Because, even at the start of 2026, there is no replacement for the US when it comes to weapons and munitions. Weapons and munitions we need, right at this moment in time and not in 10 years from now.
Personally, I expect Trump to use the Ukraine Card. It’s by far his best card and will make us fold at once. There is no choice. Actions have consequences and reacting too slow to the invasion of an imperial power of the size and might of Russia; well it has grim consequences if your closest ally and your main arms supplier goes hostile…
