Saw this graphic - I suspect a lot of bonds are being held until maturity and then moved out of USD, so this will continue downward through 2026
There is presumably some kind of floor, defined by Federal Reserve holdings of USD
2 Likes
My pension is largely US based (the typical Nvidia, Google, Meta weighed) I guess I should be looking to secure in Asia and European markets instead ?
5 Likes
I see a âGoodfellasâ Lufthansa heist being planned as we speak.
1 Like
Iâm thinking the same kind of thing. If the shit hits the fan, I really want to minimise the damage.
Iâd be surprised if anybody here watched the entirety of Trumpâs speech at Davos , I know I certainly didnât. So for those who might not have fully appreciated just how dark it was , hereâs a pretty good (and short) critique. No prizes for guessing who the author might have been.
4 Likes
Thanks for that @peterroberts. Yes I only heard snippets getting a vague feeling of disgust. This resumĂŠ puts an ominous clarification on those feelings.
1 Like
There is a whole other problem going there - the AI bubble. Much like the dotcom boom of ~25 years ago, AI is going to find a significant role in the future economy, but that absolutely doesnât mean that there isnât a stock market bubble operating right now. US stock markets excluding the âMagnificent Sevenâ have actually had a fairly poor year. Since 2020, that share has gone from about 20% of the S&P to almost double, currently around 38%.
As with any bubble, the trick is always when to get out. I dumped out of all US equities a year ago, so I have missed that year of growth (albeit, some of the places I have put it have more than offset - a couple of Canadian gold juniors alone have done that).
Honestly, I am glad I donât have that advisory responsibility now, because I made my choices for fundamentally political reasons. Applying the traditional logic of portfolio management, I have no idea. What is a safe asset in a world where bonds have become risky?
7 Likes
Iâve seen that chart and it says everything. Foreign governments no longer trust the dollar and are moving into metals. Itâs been ongoing but unreported for years and really picked up pace over the past three years. Ironically, one of the causes of US bonds being dumped lies in the Ukraine conflict and the confiscation of hundreds of billions of Russian assets. The whole issue is having US paper and storing gold in the US is that historically these instruments were considered 100% safe and inviolable. The confiscation of Russiaâs assets proved that is no longer the case and that if you disagree with US policy it may take your money. This is a radical departure. Almost immediately governments accelerated their movement out of treasuries, as you say, when they reach maturity and it is a policy not just typical money flow. For the first time in 30 years, gold as a percentage of foreign reserves is higher than US treasury holdings. Repatriating gold from the US like Germany and others are doing is another way of saying we canât trust you anymore. Alarmingly, thereâs estimated 6000 metric tons of gold held in the US on behalf of foreign governments at the NY Fed. Reserve Bank, The US says it has 8,100 metric tons of its own at Fort Knox and two other depositories. But what foreign goverments and individuals may now also be taking into consideration are the persistent suspicions that what the US says it holds in physical gold and what it actually holds may be far apart. That figure of 8,100 metric tons at Fort Know has been the same for decades and there hasnât been an actual audit since 1953. In short, economists suspect a lot of that gold may be missing. If you had gold in a US vault you might think holding it in your own country is safer nowadays, especially if there was a sudden clamour to repatriate bullion, only to find out it isnât there.
And maybe it isnât. Thereâs only so much gold in the world and Russia, Germany, Italy, France and other own a lot. But nobody really knows how much China owns. Official figures still have it around 2,400 metric tons, but metals analysts believe it could be almost 20,000 metric tons. If so, where did it all come from?
Jesus christ
https://x.com/kare11/status/2015289545168752964?s=20
A state has created an entirely new website just to counter the misinformation coming from the Feds about their operations in that state.
6 Likes
Lots of reports over the last few days indicating that massive lay offs and cut backs are pending at Washington Post.
Over the past 20 years or so they have increasingly moved away from their local DC roots to try to position itself as the nationâs paper of record. Yet now we are hearing of cut backs at their foreign desk substantial enough to basically leave the game of any sort of on the ground international coverage.
These are two examples
https://x.com/ErikWemple/status/2015432558851301380?s=20
https://x.com/davidfolkenflik/status/2015528641736675787?s=20
And this is happening on the context of thisâŚ
https://x.com/davidfolkenflik/status/2015504424316055583?s=20
2 Likes
Whoâd doubt that Bezos would just let the thing die at Trumpâs request ?
3 Likes
The right todayâŚâyou cannot bring a loaded weapon to a protest.â
The right when deciding to protests at Governorâs Walzâs house
6 Likes
They are never going to reconcile their contradictory positions and will either contort themselves into knots trying to justify or simply ignore it completely knowing that in a couple of days itâll all be forgotten anyway.
There is no bringing them around, there is no discord to be held. Theyâre in a fever dream of their own making.
7 Likes
Yeah the further down the path we go the clearer and clearer that their idea of rights are authentically held, itâs just they dont view them as universal. I have my right, but you dont have yours. I can protest a government I think is unjust to me and (my perception of) my rights. But you need to comply with whatever my government demands of you.
I think this is what people missed in the coverage of âtheyâre eating the dogs, theyâre eating the catsâ gate from the summer. The point here wasnt some callous racist caricature of immigrants, or even that they would smear a group with a lie as a justification for punishing them. It was that they were immune to correction on the fact the group they were demeaning were actually legal. Them just ignoring that and repeatedly saying they were a problem that needed to be addressed because illegal immigration is a problem was the flashing red light that said you are only legal if we say you are, and the rights we value for ourselves only apply to you when and where we say they do.
7 Likes
https://x.com/JohnJHarwood/status/2015628563836187122
Nah, he isnât broken. He also thought Trumpâs push to annex Greenland sensible and supported even the most unreasonable Israeli tactics during the their war in Gaza. This is who he is.
2 Likes
I think theyâre referring to him pre-stroke (?), at least thatâs a theory afaik.
1 Like
I wasnât aware that he had a stroke and that his personality may have changed.
If that is the case, then thatâs grim.
No idea if heâs always had views like that and people just didnât notice as much.
1 Like
Yeah, during the campaign, about 6 months before the election. He disappeared from the campaign trail for months, replaced by his (immigrant, formerly undocumented) wife only to return to public events relatively shortly before the election.
He is definitely impacted by it, but I think the reality is he was never as left as he allowed himself to be positioned during the election. Very early on after getting elected clearly sign posted that he was a mouth piece for whatever AIPAC needed him to say, which has since put him in conflict with a lot of his party. But most of all he is just a dumb dumb (not stroke related) and so seems have retreated into the moron position of âif they are criticizing me, Iâm going to argue against everything they are saying.â He has no real well considered positions that he has spent time arriving at.
3 Likes
3 Likes