Saw Trump again claim this was the greatest deal ever made ,given he says this daily why can’t he shut the fuck up while he still believes it,doubt many others do.
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Zero-Sum, mate. It cannot ever be a win as we are used to view it. Because the US is operating with Zero-Sum relationship, not only against China/Russia like during the Cold War, but against allies (and this is totally new). And in Zero-Sum, the one who is most hurt loses.
You’ll note that commentators (economists, political scientists), either knowingly or unknowingly, report from the negotiations as it is a Zero-Sum Cold War type of deal between two rival blocks and it is in this manner the US “victory” in the negotiation is reported. It’s shameful and sad that it has come to this though.
I personally, think China is a winner here (but they have massive own systemic problems at home, though unrelated to this), yes.
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As for the long term economic implications for the US and the economic plan behind this by the boys in charge, I am not competent enough to comment upon that and would rather not speculate wildly by just writing my assumptions.
Here from France today:
https://x.com/MichelReuters/status/1949730290286420191
https://x.com/MichelReuters/status/1949730293155250346
https://x.com/MichelReuters/status/1949776536229359791
And from Denmark
https://x.com/RasmusJarlov/status/1949788310496567385
Essentially this. Almost everyone in Europe is angry, the only real difference is degrees of anger
https://x.com/GreekAnalyst/status/1949738196138422358
New Circus news incomming, as spurned lover Trump, feels less and less amore for his beloved Vladimir, to the point where he now trumpets his grief and pain to the world.
https://x.com/FaytuksNetwork/status/1949801974926344232
https://x.com/FaytuksNetwork/status/1949818765840957806
https://x.com/moklasen/status/1949822768431731081
It is actually a Negative Sum, not a Zero Sum. Both sides are worse off than the initial position. The EU has indeed been to some degree humiliated, but the US has done so at the cost of increasing inflation.
There are an increasing number of pre-recession markers in the US, statistical signals with questionable causality but a pedigree of robust correlation. Housing inventory is now out to 9 months, it has never exceeded 7 months without a recession occurring. Surrenders at animal shelters are peaking, which is another indicator of difficult economic times. Working class Americans won’t be as badly hit by the EU tariff as they are by the tariffs on Chinese goods due to differing consumption bundles, but there will likely be some broad impact.
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I really cannot now see this getting ratified by the Member States. CETA took years and was stalled by fairly innocuous clauses. When Macron, Le Pen and Faure are all saying the same basic thing, one questions how it gets through France, for example.
This could blow back and cripple von der Leyen
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Sure, that is fair. Negative Sum works fine. But the point is that it’s a Zero Sum relationship, not one of more friendly ccooperation and common growth. US using brutal leverage to make the other party submit. Leverage previously never used.
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From my reading of today’s reports from politicians, it looks like sombre realisation that it’s awful but that lack of EU unity means that this is not going to get better. I think it will go through. Let us wait and see.
But yes, Ursula’s status has plummeted, mildly speaking.
I agree, but what irks me, is that we all know that Trump is a big, fat bully, and bows out as soon as he meets firm resistance. This way of capitulating, especially regarding on where to spend on military equipment, is pitiful imo. I must admit that I expected better from the EU. Militarily, it isn’t very powerful, but could still hurt them a lot on an economic level by keeping out US firms from European markets, applying reciprocal tarriffs etc. Instead of using this against Trump as a leverage, they just look to minimize tarriffs in the short term. Shame.
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Merz preferred a quick solution and ‘stability’ (whether that will actually hold, remains to be seen). Never thought much of von der Leyen so no loss of status for me personally.
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Big Treasury auction today, with an interest rate decision. A vast amount of short term paper (various weeks increments), plus 2-5-7 year notes - with the critical 10-year on the Wednesday of next week.
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True, but US threatens gleefully EUR security in response, with the unmentioned spectre of Russia in the background. Powerful leverage that.
But you are right, many (most probably) think the EU should have fought for better terms for sure.
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Does anyone in here work as a strategist for the Democrats?
If not, who are you speaking to?
Your message is for Democrat Party leaders, not people such as the ones in here who vote, or who watch on, horrified, from around the world at what America is becoming under Trump.
In the interest of balance, I would love to hear you critique why you think Trump, MAGA, and the media machinery around them that enables them, are wrong, and bad for America and the world.
All we continue to get are dodgy snippets about how the Democrat strategy is wrong, and is not connecting with enough voters.
Who is that message for? Voters or casual observers from around the world? What are they supposed to do with it, assuming it has some credence?
Tell us why Trump is an abomination. Tell us what you are doing about that!
Picking at the Dems, continually, while he does what he does in plain view, just enables him and enables MAGA. It’s a shame that your focus is so misplaced.
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US consumers have gone from European goods having favoured nation status with trivial to no imports duties to 15% duties. Trump has used his leverage to get Europe to accept defeat on the deal (for now), but this is where my point of what is the objective here that commentators are using to define this as being a win? Trump’s tariff policy is incoherent and contradictory and nothing should be viewed as a “win” until he reconciles that to give us something specific to measure this against.
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Yeah, I am talking about Win only in the contex of competition. US versus EU.
I fully agree with you that GOP economical policies are incoherant.
Trump flips and flops all over the place. Whatever has just been agreed with the EU I would take with a pinch of salt, at least as a long term proposition for trade. Wait five minutes and it will be something different.
What I would do, if I were the EU, is get my shit together in sorting out an independent defence as a matter of priority. America is not a reliable ally, and Russia clearly has expansionist plans under Putin. Yes it will be expensive. And yes, it needs a lot of political will and momentum to get it done. But the price of not doing it may prove far greater down the line.
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