I suppose the countdown has begun for real now.
Since 2024 and 2025 have been shit years apart from liverpool winning the league, there is always the chance that India miscalculates with it’s impending strike and attacks too harshly. I doubt it though. But I envision an indian strike and Pakistani reprisal strikes, then new Indian strikes and a relatively fast agreement to deescalate.
Most likely. I think that there will be an Indian strike on some of the terrorist camps in Pakistan territory. India will overstate the casualties and Pakistan will deny any casualties. There will be some sort of reprisal strikes by Pakistan.
The IWT is the more troubling bit. It’s impossible for India to stop water from the northern rivers flowing into Pakistan. But by keeping the treaty in abeyance, What India can do is that they can stop sharing the information about water levels to their Pakistani counterparts. There’s been idiotic rhetoric and fear mongering on both sides.
The point does remain that it was a badly drafted treaty which was favouring Pakistan more than it favoured India
Two articles ; both having quite a lot of elements of truth
India’s been hindered from any water management activities which were allowed under the treaty by frivolous objections by Pakistan. From Pakistan’s side, There’s been no infrastruture built to better manage their water (which leads them to the continuous drought/flood crisis)
Here we go. The wait is over. Important now to understand what has been hit and if Indian operations are over. Pakistan will retaliate.
This has the chance to escalate to hell, but is very unlikely to do so. Likely, these adult states (unlike Hamas) manage escalation control and avoids real war
https://x.com/weethelawyer/status/1919844612421603682
https://x.com/AdityaRajKaul/status/1919850843186331906
https://x.com/weethelawyer/status/1919848892843126979
From a cursory glance, so far, this seems like a “job well done” unless Pakistan fucks up their retaliation and hits back too hard.
The source is not one I know , so cannot vouch for the videos, but I assess that it is likely that they are real:
https://x.com/warfareanalysis/status/1919853358577246267
There is a scandal in Hungary. Journalists warned yesterday that they were about to release something explosive today, and it seems explosive indeed
https://x.com/SzabadonMagyar/status/1920434821660070176
https://x.com/SzabadonMagyar/status/1920432774349033827
War mode against whom? Or are they planning to side with Putin?
Yes,or exploit it; but only after Russia breaks the Ukrainain army, which has not yet happened. Hungarian Nationalists are irredentist and not happy with their borders.
That Hungary hopes to annex a small part of Ukraine has been discussed before. There is a reason why they want Russia to conquer Ukraine, as they think they can then press claims and that their friendly relations with Russia will make Russia agree to them having their piece
Scroll down and read the Ukraine section. They also have eyes on Romania, in case they politically collapse etc.
Today, something interesting happened, quite probably based on the Hungarian revelations:
https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1920735965212991596
Posting it here to link it with what I divulged above. It is not related to Russia’s campaign anyway. At least not directly
Text for those who don’t open tweets for various reasons:
For the first time in Ukraine’s history, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) has uncovered a spy network operated by Hungarian military intelligence, targeting national security interests. The agents focused on gathering intelligence in the Zakarpattia region—assessing military defenses, identifying weaknesses in air and ground security, and analyzing local public sentiment toward a possible Hungarian military presence. Two operatives have been detained. According to the investigation, both were managed by a Hungarian military intelligence officer whose identity has already been confirmed by the SBU. One of the arrested is a 40-year-old former soldier from the Berehove district, recruited by Hungarian intelligence back in 2021 and activated in September 2024. His tasks included assessing civilian and military reactions to a hypothetical peacekeeping deployment, monitoring arms trafficking, and tracking Ukrainian troop deployments. He personally scouted air defense systems and later crossed into Hungary to report back, using forged medical documents to justify his trip. During a follow-up meeting, he received cash and a secure communication device, and was instructed to recruit new informants, collect data on Security and Defense Forces vehicles, and report Ukrainian military losses. The second detainee is a former Ukrainian military servicewoman who had access to information about aircraft, helicopters, and local military infrastructure. All steps of the network’s activity were documented, and electronic evidence was seized during searches. The suspects have been charged with high treason under martial law (Article 111-2 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine) and face life imprisonment with asset confiscation. Efforts are ongoing to identify and prosecute additional members of the Hungarian intelligence network. The operation was conducted under the supervision of the Prosecutor General’s Office. https://t.me/SBUkr/14805
This is of course extremely serious when combined with Hungary’s intentions.
I don’t know how we are going survive these fascist cunts. 80 years of peace were too many for their fucked up brain.
Yes, the times are extremely bad. The Long Peace Era we were lucky enough to live in Europe and the wider West, is over. And Nationalists (many with fascist leanings) with irredentist ideas of restoring old land (which involves conquest) have come to power and brooded their ideas for long enough for them to come to fruition.
Very dangerous. Still, most in the West are still sleeping.
And it’s hardly just the West, Multi Polar World is on us now. There is no hegemon to keep tensions down. Vance stated today for instance that clashes in India- Pakistan had absolutely nothing to do with the US and that the US should stay away from it; something which would have been unbelievable to say 5 years ago.
What we have now is competing Great Powers seeking to expand their Spheres of Influence, with many medium sized powers in the rim of the spheres taking advantage to eat fish who are threatened by the major spheres.
Unfathomably dangeorus, unless reversed very, very soon. But it has begun already. Soon, the Chinese invasion of Taiwan will come, highly likely under Trump (they would be foolish not to).
Yeah, I can see this coming thick and fast before too long.
