‘aimed’ at regime change’ … yeah , good luck with that.
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It’s almost like they deliberately want to sabotage any form of change of government in Iran. USA and Israel banding together to achieve regime change? Why not throw Saudi Arabia in while they’re at that?
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Why? They dont fight, they lobby the US and Isrsel to do their work. Pretty sure i posted it above some days ago.
The obvious problem with regime change is that they have nobody but Pavlavi jr. And that won’t fly. The alernative to shock and awe rapid regime change (which wont work) is a grueling methodical campaign until capitulation, and the US dont want sustained expensive campaigns. Trump wants super short triumphs, not deconstruction of a state until it capitulates. So yes, wont work unless there is a Swan event we cannot see.
Edit: posted the article of KSA lobbying to commence bombing somewhere else it seems. Anyway, they are lobbying hard.
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Perhaps it’s just me, but I’m rather sceptical of any form of regime change that doesn’t come internally, and also relies on what a regime has already declared to be the Great Enemies.
It’s a great way to quickly discredit and delegitimise any regime change.
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So am I, clearly.
I am just noting that its possible with enough force, just impossible with a medium sized bombing campaign. To get their desired end game, they would have to go much, much further. And that will absolutely not happen.
As for lack of legitimacy, absolutely. But I didn’t really cover legality.
“Enough force” = A real war fought until terms can be dictated or internal security totally unravels due to intense destruction of forces and infrastructure so that regional rebel groups can take over. The latter is what they hope for, but totally impossible without annihilating Revolutionary Guard and regime militias. A huge undertaking. No sign of this happening. At most, there will be some bombing.
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A few weeks ago Trump was exhorting protestors onto the streets , urging them to seize the institutions and promising them ‘help is on its way’ , and at least 6000 (probably many more died).
For their trouble they’re now about to witness a ‘deal’ to keep the regime in place , in exchange for whatever promises they can extract regarding their nuclear programme. The same nuclear programme that was ‘obliterated’ during the 12 day war.
This is all down to Netanyahu , who really couldn’t give a fuck what type of regime is in power as long as he can get to re-sell the nuclear threat bogeyman to his country in an election year.
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The massacres were enormous in scale (more than 6k protestors dead for sure) and they were all betrayed by Donald Trump who did nothing as the regime had its internet and media blackout (i.e. That was when the killing was going on).
Netanyahu lobbying for it of course, as you say.
It was disgusting.
It would have been incredibly easy for the US to stop it like with Serbia in a very rapid minor intervention . Instead, they wait, because they dont care about people but specifically dismantling the nuclear program (requires planning and a lot of intelligence gathering).
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Coming hot on the heels of Macron in France raiding the Elon Musk offices and taking loads of documentation away…
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Now, when are they also having a go at Meta and Zuckerberg?
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Expected, but anyway…
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That’s him to a fucking T.
Evil bastard!
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https://x.com/NotWoofers/status/2023754896898748658
https://x.com/NotWoofers/status/2023756094506705045
On the other hand:
https://x.com/OAlexanderDK/status/2023741114260300218
And then we have the previous intelligence as well as Israeli statements that I have posted previously.
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They think they have 2 weeks
https://x.com/BarakRavid/status/2023793345684795553
In other even more useless news of negotiations that will go nowhwhere:
https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/2023806855395574054
shrugs
https://x.com/NotWoofers/status/2023939099476758907
https://x.com/NotWoofers/status/2023942827097444810
Maybe it’s just a “bluff”. But likely not. Unless Iran folds fast, this seems inevitable now.
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Høvik is very rarely wrong when it comes to OSINT.
https://x.com/kimhvik2/status/2024001215055495514
It would be impolite to do a Russian and attack during the Olympics though, as that is Russia’s dirty signature move. But with Trump it is actually a bit hard to say, as normal norms might restrain him a bit, but perhaps not more than slightly.
On one side, Iran is (probably one of the only) a state that the US can strike, even go to war with, with minimum political cost from external factors (i.e. most of the world will protest a bit, but not really much, as Iran is no friend to most states and its regime is famously despotic, as we have seen recently), Political cost will be likely higher only if this gets botched, some how, or a lot of US troops gets killed.
Annoyingly, I think it might succeed and actually strenghten Trump and not weaken him. It would be damning irony if the Trump gang of racist crooks some how manages a regime change. But while US generals will be competent. I have my strong doubt on political planners, so unlikely imo. But possible. A swan is a thing, black or white.
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Unless they have learnt their lessons from Iraq, it will end up in a shit-show. I don’t think you are going to see a Marshall plan on this.
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The man has a point, doesn’t he ?
https://x.com/MichaelShurkin/status/2024150759881818146
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https://x.com/OAlexanderDK/status/2024128727538352250
Just posting because of the time table. Everything should be ready in less than 7 days, but it is honestly a lot up to Witkof and Kushner. What do they tell Trump ? He trusts them (extremely unfortunately) and so if they say that negotiating longer will get them where they might want to be, it is possible he delays. It’s even possible there won’t be an attack.
But I assess a large scale attack to be something like… 80-90 % certain, unless Iran folds. The reason why I even touched upon 80% is that it’s Trump and he loves knee-jerk and hates planning and important details, so he may possible make a “yuge” deal (Very unlikely, Iran must want that too and etc.) or something very bizarre.
But build up continues today and excuse me, but it would be extraordinary if this was bluff.
https://x.com/michaelh992/status/2024140237102821521
Because frankly, it seems VERY much lower cost to just state directly to Iran: “Agree to this unconditionally, or we attack 100%”. An old fashioned ultimatum. US would still have freedom and time to move assets into place after such an ultimatum would have been delivered. So the Force Build Up makes no sense unless it is more or less decided to use force unless Iran folds within a few days from now (might even be too late).
It’s highly problematic that Khamenei’s spokespersons continue to post these AI slop threats.
It endangers them, does not help them. The United States does not change it’s calculus in Iran’s favour due to these statements (does not deter the US at all) and it’s frankly just seen as pathetic.
May in fact also trigger Trump, as he is a knee-jerk person.
https://x.com/Khamenei_m/status/2023884372596978010