Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid)

Rumour Mill
1412

Football is very much about today. It shouldn’t be, but it is.

Birmingham City had a kid who was good enough to play, so they threw him in. Had Birmingham City been guaranteed to keep him for his whole career, they could have used him more sparingly, and introduced him slower. But he was good enough, so as a 16 year old he played 41 league games, helped them on the pitch, and then got a large (for them, and for a 17 year old) payday from Dortmund.

Dortmund signed a very good player, but presumably they knew they would not have him for the rest of his career either. Their model is to give top young talent the experience and then sell on for a very big fee. So they played Bellingham, and he has definitely been good enough to have them fighting hard for the title, as well as holding their own in the Champions League.

For Dortmund, their objective is presumably to enjoy the player for 3-4 years and then sell on for a very big fee.

Bottom line, yes, it is a concern how many games Bellingham has played already, but football is very short term, and everyone is concerned with their own interests, so what has happened so far is understandable.

What remains to be seen is how many games Bellingham will play at a high level over his career. 500? 700? 800? More?

If we buy him, hopefully we will have a good enough group that we can rotate him from time to time, to get some rest into him. But even at that point, every governing body in the game is adding more games to their competitions, so protecting a player, for the club, is an increasingly impossible task.

It needs someone to have a career long view, and it needs the various bodies, domestic and international, to make a concerted effort to reduce the games the top players play.

Good luck with that!

1 Like
1413

Timely.

4 Likes
1414

It’s not so much the games as it is the minutes and increasing how many of those minutes come in international football. A lot of young players will be eased into top level senior football. Minutes here, minutes there, bit of a break through and then established as a core part of the team.

Bellingham hasn’t done that. His rise has come phenomenally early. And not just the club football, it’s the international commitments too. And we know there’s increased risk once players are out of our control and the toil of back to back seasons with shortened summer breaks.

Compare him to someone like Henderson. Bellingham has already played nearly 30% of the total games and minutes Henderson has across his career, all before he’s even turned 20. And it’s not like Henderson wasn’t playing as a teenager up at Sunderland.

In fact, if you look at the approximate number of minutes per appearance so far, both average about 72 minutes per appearance. He’s already fully established for both club and country and those games and minutes are only going one direction if we spend upwards of £100m on him and he stays relatively healthy.

Not many teenagers play that many minutes at that level that early in their career without seeing an early physical decline.

1 Like
1415

He’s played too many games. Swerve.

:wink:

1416

I don’t think anyone is saying swerve. Just don’t expect him to be playing at Liverpool until he’s 35. Knowing how the physical demands on midfielders has increased in the last 10 years, he’ll be well into his MLS career by that point.

All we need to do is remember he’s further along in his career than a typical 19yo. That doesn’t change his valuation. There will be plenty of years playing top level football at his next club.

1417

Klopp prepares them for the worst but Xabis football is less demanding.

Jude should be fine here until 2032 at least.

1418

I completely agree.

Whether we classify it in games or more accurately as you suggest, minutes, the point being, football is short term and everyone has vested interests.

Birmingham did what was in their best interest.
Dortmund are doing likewise.
England too.
Bellingham’s next club will, too.

No one has the overall career of the player uppermost in mind because none of them are holding his entire career in their hands.

If he signs, say, a six year deal with his next club, they will be best positioned to think about the welfare of the player for the long term, but even then, they will have paid a fortune for him and will have their own interests to manage.

It’s a tricky situation, and I don’t know how it changes.

1419

This is a proper lovefest this!

1420

You obviously solve it by having the World Cup every 2 years and then get UEFA to squeeze in the democratic nations of Europe cup, maybe somewhere between the Euros and the nations league.

1 Like
1421

Yup, look at what happened to Owen and Rooney. The human body has a shelf life. Even with the caveat of modern sports science and medicine helping manage his body, he’s using up a fair bit of his lifetime capacity

1422

With due respect, those are terrible examples. Rooney was a notoriously unprofessional off the pitch and still had nearly 15 years at the top level. Owen’s physical failures were things that happened early in his career and ended his time at the top very early. It is hardly an example of someone burning out from too many miles on the clock.

Jude has played a lot of games for someone of his age. Even if that does take something off the end of his career, we’re still talking about 2 full long term contracts before he starts to see a decline and so not remotely something worth getting bothered about in terms of justifying going after him now.

2 Likes
1423

Buy Jude this summer and sell him to Real in 6 years for £200m just before he breaks down.

1424

And don’t forget the P/L adding an additional round, to be played internationally every season

1425

James Milner played a 38 game season 19 years ago. He also made his professional debut at 16.

8 Likes
1426

Jude to Swindon confirmed.

1427

Fabinho didn’t play a 38 game plus season until he was 22 and people reckon he started going down hill when he was 28.

Bellingham could be fine but there’s definitely a possibility he has the legs run off him early in his career.

1428

Yup. Michael Owen is probably the best example of this. Until around 24-25 he was unplayable. Then, injuries started to happen and his decline was spectacular from then on.

2 Likes
1429

Milner is made out of 100% English steel. You can’t compare him with a normal human being. :wink:

1 Like
1430
James Milner
Year Age* Minutes
2002/03 17 560
2003/04 18 3102
2004/05 19 1935
2005/06 20 3331
2006/07 21 4119
Jude Bellingham
Year Age Minutes
2019/20 16 2943
2020/21 17 2822
2021/22 18 3797
2022/23 19 2913

James Milner had just turned 21 when he had as many minutes of professional football in his legs as Jude does now. James Milner’s last significant season for us was 2018/19 (2800 minutes) which is 12 years on top of his 06/07 minutes figure. If you argue that Milner’s last significant season is 2021/21 (1700 minutes), then that’s 15 years extra.

This is all on top of Milner being an absolute enigma. Even as a kid, he was built like a brick shithouse, an ‘old-school man’ if I’m allowed to say that these days. It’s not really fair to have an expectation that a player built like Jude can have that type of career. Milner is a (rare) example of a player with a long career, and it could happen with Jude, but I certainly wouldn’t expect it.

Minutes played absolutely should be kept in mind. It is not insignificant.

*Milner’s birthday is close to the middle of the season but more games in a season are played after it than before so I am going age at halfway point. :woman_shrugging: Jude’s birthday is in the off-season so that’s easy.

3 Likes
1431

This is a discussion with so many different scenarios.

Let’s not forget we also have different eras, different positions, players with different styles, different styles of teams or managers played under, luck factor (big injuries), motivation, evolution, etc.

We have no idea if the body or future of Jude Bellingham could be, let’s say, that of a Clarence Seedorf. First example that I could think of a player who, very young, got to a certain level and was at the top level for almost his whole careeer. Cases like Seedorf are still rare, despite he stopped playing international football (mistake by Netherlands!) pretty early.

For now, I don’t think a club in a position to sign Bellingham will be worried if he’s going to hit a wall by the age of around 25 or a bit later, when he “should” hit his peak. I mean, massive drops like the one Dele Alli (just an example) has had can happen.

You do have tools to monitor how a player is doing physically of course, so that you analyse with time. He does seem to be good athletically and also able to play a very technical, “calm” game. Able to be dynamic, but that his game doesn’t depend that much on it (like Hendo’s does).

And he’s possibly going to end up at a club that is more used to massive transfers like his one is going to be. And a more frequent rotation of world class players.

1 Like